DEPUTY SECRETARY NEGROPONTE'S MEETING WITH FOREIGN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002783

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG IS
SUBJECT: DEPUTY SECRETARY NEGROPONTE'S MEETING WITH FOREIGN
MINISTER LIVNI

TEL AVIV 00002783 001.4 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador James B. Cunningham for reasons 1.4 B & D.


1. (S) Summary. Deputy Secretary Negroponte and Foreign
Minister Livni met in Tel Aviv December 9. They discussed
Israeli domestic politics, the impact of the Israeli
elections on the peace process, and Iran. Livni said the
Israeli electorate feels apprehensive and is looking for
strong leadership. She commented that the opposition Likud
Party's primary elections moved that party to the right and
should help her Kadima Party prevail in the general
elections. Livni said Israelis lack confidence in the peace
process due to the weakness of the Palestinian Authority and
Hamas' control of Gaza. She intends to point out that there
is also a price to be paid for stagnation as represented by
Likud. If Israel does not initiate peace efforts, it will
face initiatives from the international community and risk a
clash with the U.S. Deputy Secretary Negroponte assured
Livni that support for Israel is a fundamental principle of
U.S. foreign policy, and while there may be a change in
approach there would not be a change in principle. Livni
commented that the peace process is an Israeli interest, not
just a Palestinian or U.S. interest. Regarding Iran,
Negroponte observed that the Bush Administration will
maintain its approach of sanctions and financial pressures.
The new Administration will need time to do its own
assessment. Negroponte said that a strengthened Iraq can be
a counter-weight to Iran. End Summary.

Likud Shift to Right an Opportunity
--------------


2. (C) Deputy Secretary John Negroponte, accompanied by the
Ambassador and A/DCM, called on Foreign Minister and Kadima
Party leader Tzipi Livni at her Tel Aviv office December 9.
Livni was joined by adviser Tal Becker, Chief of Staff Tomer
Rozenberg, and MFA DDG for North America Baruch Binah.
Commenting on Israeli domestic politics, Livni observed that
a lot can change in the two months until Israel's general
elections. The Israeli public is anxious, they are uncertain
which way the country is headed. There is a feeling of
insecurity because of the Iranian menace, but small threats
such as Qassam rockets from Gaza loom large because the
Israeli leadership has not found a way to make them stop.
Then there is the global economic crisis. Israel entered it
in relatively good shape, but people do not know how far it
will go. This mood is affecting the election campaign.
Israelis are looking for strong leadership but also someone
they can trust.


3. (C) Noting that she is neck and neck in the polls with
Likud Party leader Bibi Netanyahu, Livni said the public has
greater trust in her. Likud has been doing better in the
polls than Livni's Kadima Party, however, because Netanyahu
had attracted an appealing line-up of politicians for the
party. Even those who do not trust Netanyahu felt he had
good people around him. Then came the Likud Party primaries
on December 8, which produced what Livni termed "an extreme
right-wing list," including some of the party rebels who had
broken with former Prime Minister Sharon over the Gaza
disengagement. Livni predicted that as a result, Likud would
lose its lead in the polls. The election, she said, will be
a fight for the moderate right. The message projected by the
Likud primaries is one of stagnation.


4. (C) Negroponte asked whether the election campaign
requires a pause in the peace process. Livni did not answer
directly, but noted that Israelis lack confidence in the
process. They consider the Palestinian Authority's
leadership to be weak and Hamas is in firm control of Gaza.
She said her message to the public is that there is also a
price to be paid for stagnation. If Israel does not initiate
peace moves, it will be pushed around by the international
community and may end up clashing with the U.S. Livni
commented that Israelis do not trust the Europeans or the
Arabs, but they do not want to clash with the U.S.

The U.S. Political Transition
--------------


5. (C) Negroponte stated that support for Israel is a
fundamental principle of U.S. foreign policy. The new
Administration may change its policy approach, but it will
not change the principle. Livni said she agreed, noting that
if the Israeli government tells Washington that something
threatens Israel's security, the U.S. will listen. Livni
went on to say that the peace process represents an Israeli
interest, not just a Palestinian or U.S. interest. By
changing the situation on the ground and working for peace,
Israel gains the support of the international community. It
also helps with getting Arab support against Iran.


TEL AVIV 00002783 002 OF 002


Dealing with Iran
--------------


6. (S) Asked about Iran, Negroponte said he thought more
pressure was needed, perhaps by getting the Russians on
board. Livni asked how the Bush Administration would handle
Iran during the transition. Negroponte said we are
continuing on the same course, working through the P-5 plus
2, UNSC sanctions, and pressures on Iran's banking system.
Negroponte added that as Iraq becomes stronger it can once
again pose a counter-weight to Iran.


7. (U) The Deputy Secretary's party has cleared this cable.


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