DEPUTY SECRETARY NEGROPONTE'S MEETING WITH FOREIGN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002783 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV KWBG IS SUBJECT: DEPUTY SECRETARY NEGROPONTE'S MEETING WITH FOREIGN MINISTER LIVNI TEL AVIV 00002783 001.4 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador James B. Cunningham for reasons 1.4 B & D. ¶1. (S) Summary. Deputy Secretary Negroponte and Foreign Minister Livni met in Tel Aviv December 9. They discussed Israeli domestic politics, the impact of the Israeli elections on the peace process, and Iran. Livni said the Israeli electorate feels apprehensive and is looking for strong leadership. She commented that the opposition Likud Party's primary elections moved that party to the right and should help her Kadima Party prevail in the general elections. Livni said Israelis lack confidence in the peace process due to the weakness of the Palestinian Authority and Hamas' control of Gaza. She intends to point out that there is also a price to be paid for stagnation as represented by Likud. If Israel does not initiate peace efforts, it will face initiatives from the international community and risk a clash with the U.S. Deputy Secretary Negroponte assured Livni that support for Israel is a fundamental principle of U.S. foreign policy, and while there may be a change in approach there would not be a change in principle. Livni commented that the peace process is an Israeli interest, not just a Palestinian or U.S. interest. Regarding Iran, Negroponte observed that the Bush Administration will maintain its approach of sanctions and financial pressures. The new Administration will need time to do its own assessment. Negroponte said that a strengthened Iraq can be a counter-weight to Iran. End Summary. Likud Shift to Right an Opportunity -------------- ¶2. (C) Deputy Secretary John Negroponte, accompanied by the Ambassador and A/DCM, called on Foreign Minister and Kadima Party leader Tzipi Livni at her Tel Aviv office December 9. Livni was joined by adviser Tal Becker, Chief of Staff Tomer Rozenberg, and MFA DDG for North America Baruch Binah. Commenting on Israeli domestic politics, Livni observed that a lot can change in the two months until Israel's general elections. The Israeli public is anxious, they are uncertain which way the country is headed. There is a feeling of insecurity because of the Iranian menace, but small threats such as Qassam rockets from Gaza loom large because the Israeli leadership has not found a way to make them stop. Then there is the global economic crisis. Israel entered it in relatively good shape, but people do not know how far it will go. This mood is affecting the election campaign. Israelis are looking for strong leadership but also someone they can trust. ¶3. (C) Noting that she is neck and neck in the polls with Likud Party leader Bibi Netanyahu, Livni said the public has greater trust in her. Likud has been doing better in the polls than Livni's Kadima Party, however, because Netanyahu had attracted an appealing line-up of politicians for the party. Even those who do not trust Netanyahu felt he had good people around him. Then came the Likud Party primaries on December 8, which produced what Livni termed "an extreme right-wing list," including some of the party rebels who had broken with former Prime Minister Sharon over the Gaza disengagement. Livni predicted that as a result, Likud would lose its lead in the polls. The election, she said, will be a fight for the moderate right. The message projected by the Likud primaries is one of stagnation. ¶4. (C) Negroponte asked whether the election campaign requires a pause in the peace process. Livni did not answer directly, but noted that Israelis lack confidence in the process. They consider the Palestinian Authority's leadership to be weak and Hamas is in firm control of Gaza. She said her message to the public is that there is also a price to be paid for stagnation. If Israel does not initiate peace moves, it will be pushed around by the international community and may end up clashing with the U.S. Livni commented that Israelis do not trust the Europeans or the Arabs, but they do not want to clash with the U.S. The U.S. Political Transition -------------- ¶5. (C) Negroponte stated that support for Israel is a fundamental principle of U.S. foreign policy. The new Administration may change its policy approach, but it will not change the principle. Livni said she agreed, noting that if the Israeli government tells Washington that something threatens Israel's security, the U.S. will listen. Livni went on to say that the peace process represents an Israeli interest, not just a Palestinian or U.S. interest. By changing the situation on the ground and working for peace, Israel gains the support of the international community. It also helps with getting Arab support against Iran. TEL AVIV 00002783 002 OF 002 Dealing with Iran -------------- ¶6. (S) Asked about Iran, Negroponte said he thought more pressure was needed, perhaps by getting the Russians on board. Livni asked how the Bush Administration would handle Iran during the transition. Negroponte said we are continuing on the same course, working through the P-5 plus 2, UNSC sanctions, and pressures on Iran's banking system. Negroponte added that as Iraq becomes stronger it can once again pose a counter-weight to Iran. ¶7. (U) The Deputy Secretary's party has cleared this cable. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** CUNNINGHAM