MFA OFFICIALS DISCUSS REGIONAL PEACE, DEVELOPMENTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002640

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2018
TAGS: PREL PTER KWBG KPAL SY XF IS
SUBJECT: MFA OFFICIALS DISCUSS REGIONAL PEACE, DEVELOPMENTS
IN THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY AND SYRIA

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Luis Moreno. Reason 1.4 (B/D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Director of Policy Planning Dr. David
Gordon on November 16 met separately with Eran Etzion, MFA
Director of Policy Planning, Tal Becker, MFA Foreign Policy
Advisor, and Yaakov Hadas, Deputy Director General of the
Middle East and Peace Process Division to discuss Israeli
views on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, the Arab
Peace Initiative (API),and developments in Syria. The
Israeli officials talked of the importance of a strategic
realignment in the region that might facilitate Israeli-Arab
cooperation to oppose radical forces, but lamented slow
progress on this front to date. There was some debate among
these policymakers over Palestinian Authority (PA) President
Abbas's political future if he does not move forward with new
presidential elections scheduled for January. The Israelis
also split in their assessment of HAMAS's political standing.
End Summary.

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ISRAELI VIEWS ON REGIONAL PEACE
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2. (C) Dr. Gordon queried his Israeli interlocutors on the
status of Israel's relations in the region. Becker
characterized relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors
as having improved recently following a decline after the
Annapolis Conference in November 2007. He said that Israelis
meet Arab officials "in hotel rooms in Europe," but he
demurred when asked if he could specify countries with which
Israel was improving relations. Becker, along with Etzion
and Hadas, spoke of a possible strategic realignment in the
Middle East to combat the threat posed by Iran and terrorist
groups. "Mutual distrust between Arabs and Israel has given
way to mutual distrust of Iran, HAMAS, and Hizballah,"
according to Hadas.


3. (C) Becker and Hadas outlined for Dr. Gordon the ways in
which Arab states could improve the regional dynamic. Becker
spoke of the importance of Arab regimes supporting the
moderate Palestinian leadership, stressing that they have to
"choose sides" and stop supporting HAMAS. Becker
characterized Saudi King Abdallah's recent comments on
terrorism, in which he did not blame Israel for its cause, as
a sign that this was beginning to happen. The officials also
spoke of small gestures that the Israeli public needs to see
now - ahead of Israel's elections in February - that would
give assurances that forging ahead with the peace process was
worth the risks. Longer-term initiatives, according to
Hadas and Becker, would focus on "regional cooperation before
regional peace," and would include coordination on water,
desertification, agriculture, health, and the environment.
These efforts would be modeled along the lines of the Middle
East Desalination Research Center (MEDRC),in which Israel
since the mid-1990s has worked alongside Oman and Qatar.
(Note: MEDRC is the only regional working group formed during
the Oslo peace process that has survived the waxing and
waning of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.) Regional
security cooperation also has potential. Hadas said that
Gulf countries see Israel as a last resort for them because
Israel "might have to one day do the dirty job" of
confronting Iran over its nuclear program, or of convincing
the U.S. to do it for them.

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ARAB PEACE INITIATIVE: A MEANS, NOT AN END
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4. (C) Each Israeli official viewed the API as a positive
measure in that it called for normalized relations with
Israel, but they cautioned that it was at best a means to an
end, not an end unto itself. Hadas rejected the sequencing
set out in the API in which Israel is expected to make
concessions in return for normalization. In Hadas's view,
normalization should not be a reward for Israel because other
states in the region need normalization as much as Israel
does. Becker stressed that a key element missing in the
initiative is that an agreement acceptable to the
Palestinians would be acceptable to all Arab states. Etzion,
referencing comments by Defense Minister Ehud Barak and
President Peres in support of the API, noted that the
initiative risks being undermined if it appears tied to one
political philosophy within Israel.

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VIEWS ON DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY
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5. (C) Dr. Gordon asked the MFA officials if PA President
Abbas would suffer politically from a decision to stay on as
President despite elections scheduled for January. Etzion
declared a lack of consensus "here." (Note: it was not clear

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whether Etzion was referring to a split within his office,
the MFA, or in the Israeli policymaking community as a
whole.) He said that there is a tendency to underestimate
the problem of domestic legitimacy in the PA. He expects
Abbas to have political problems that HAMAS will exploit,
especially if negotiations progress significantly or conclude
in an agreement. Becker, however, assessed that "rule of law
is not a grand concept in Palestine," and predicted that
Abbas would be able to survive the minor political backlash
Becker expects him to face. Becker deemed 2008 the best
year in Israeli-Palestinian relations since 2000, claiming
that "we have the fundamentals in line."


6. (C) Etzion and Becker differed slightly in their
assessments of HAMAS's strength. Etzion said that HAMAS has
the upper hand now with the U.S. and Israel going through
electoral transition periods and suggested that one way to
change the dynamic - though it carried "extreme" risks - was
to elevate the status and speed of the negotiations with the
Palestinians. Becker told Dr. Gordon that HAMAS was having
difficulty showing what they offer to Palestinians. "They
can't offer real solutions; they are getting nothing for
Corporal Shalit, the crossings are still closed, and their
public support for the calming of tensions undermines their
claim to resistance," Becker added. Despite HAMAS's
troubles, Becker was concerned about continued Qatari support
for the terrorist group and asked that the USG look into ways
of halting such support.

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SYRIA: TAKING STOCK OF ASAD'S CALCULATIONS
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7. (C) Becker noted the evolution in Israel's thinking on
peace with Syria, pointing out that it is no longer land for
peace that would have Israelis "eating hummus in Damascus."
Instead, it was now land for strategic realignment, geared
toward turning Syria away from Iran and Hizballah and toward
the U.S. and the West. Etzion assessed that the Syrians
probably understand that their current relations with Teheran
and Hizballah cannot continue if progress is made on a peace
agreement, but Damascus does not know what the West will
offer. Etzion offered his strategy if he were Syrian
President Bashar al-Asad: stall, do separate negotiating
tracks, and take bids from all sides. Both Etzion and Becker
felt that trends could push Asad toward the West, with the
former noting Damascus's fears of a Shi'a-dominated Iraq
following a U.S. withdrawal, and the latter opining that Asad
will determine that the U.S. is a better guarantor of his
regime's survival than Iran.


8. (U) Dr. Gordon has cleared this message.

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