DOV WEISSGLAS WARNS ISRAEL'S SETTLEMENT POLICY

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 002635

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE; NEA/IPA FOR
GOLDBERGER/HOLMSTROM/ROSENSTOCK/PECCIA; NSC FOR
ABRAMS/SINGH/PASCUAL; JCS FOR GENERAL SELVA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/26/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL IS KPAL KWBG
SUBJECT: DOV WEISSGLAS WARNS ISRAEL'S SETTLEMENT POLICY
COULD STRAIN RELATIONS WITH THE US.

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Luis G. Moreno for reasons 1.4 (B) and
(D)


1. (U) Summary: Former Chief of Staff to Ariel Sharon Dov
Weissglas, in an op-ed published in the mass circulation
Yediot Aharonot November 24, cautioned that Israel risks a
diplomatic confrontation with the new US Administration if it
continues to permit settlement expansion and outpost
construction. Weissglas also warned that Israel could
jeopardize US recognition of Israel's control of the major
settlement blocs if Israel does not adhere to its obligations
under the Roadmap. Weissglas added that Israel's current
settlement policy could hurt Israel's relations with the next
US administration, which he opines will not be as patient as
its predecessor. End Summary.

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SETTLEMENT CONSTRUCTION RISKS DAMAGING US RELATIONS
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2. (U) Yediot Aharonot published an op-ed column by former
Chief of Staff to PM Sharon Dov Weissglas on November 24, in
which Weissglas commented that the US has become increasingly
frustrated with the GOI's inability to meet its commitments
to freeze settlement construction and dismantle outposts, and
warned that Israel could become entangled in a "severe
diplomatic crisis" with the US if it continues to shirk its
Roadmap obligations. Brg. Gen. Baruch Spiegal, a consultant
for the Economic Cooperation Foundation, on November 25
relayed similar comments from Defense Minister Barak and IDF
Chief of Staff Ashkenazi to Charge d'Affairs Moreno that the
GOI needs to uphold its Roadmap committments to avoid
damaging Israel's relationship with the US.


3. (U) Weissglas, who wrote the GOI response to President
Bush's April 2004 letter to Sharon, also warned that such a
crisis could prompt the US to re-assess its recognition of
Israel's claims to the major settlement blocs. He wrote that
President Bush in 2004 recognized Israeli claims to the major
settlement blocs with the understanding that the remaining
portions of the West Bank would be reserved for a Palestinian
state. Weissglas commented that continued settlement
expansion and construction of outposts that "change the facts
on the ground" could affect the tenets of the agreement, and
US support for Israel's claims.

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NEW ADMINISTRATION TO KEEP UP PRESSURE
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4. (U) Weissglas noted that Israel risks compromising the
US's trust and damaging relations with the next US
Administration by continuing to balk on its Roadmap
obligations. He predicted that the Obama Administration will
not be as lenient with Israel as the Bush Administration, and
will immediately demand that Israel uphold its Roadmap
commitments. Weissglas warned that Israel risks getting off
on the wrong foot with the new administration by dragging its
feet on its Roadmap commitments.

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COMMENT
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5. (C) Weissglas's commentary comes on the heels of public
statements earlier this month by Prime Minister Olmert, who
said that settlements and outposts represent an impediment to
the two-state solution. Both men in the past supported
settlement expansion, but their views have evolved. Olmert
appears to genuinely believe that settlement growth is
hindering the peace process, while Weissglas' emphasis is on
the potential damage to the U.S.-Israeli relationship that he
believes is essential to Israel's survival as a Jewish state.

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