ISRAELI POLLSTER PROVIDES INTERESTING DATA

UNCLAS TEL AVIV 002620



C O R R E C T E D COPY -- PRIMARY TAG ADDED



SIPDIS



STATE FOR NEA, NEA/IPA, NEA/PPD

JERUSALEM FOR PAO MSCHWEITZER-BLUHM & ICD ADANIELS



E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: OPRC, KPAL, KPLS, KPAO, IS

SUBJECT:ISRAELI POLLSTER PROVIDES INTERESTING DATA



1. During a November 20 meeting with the PAO, pollster Jacob Shamir

of Hebrew University provided some interesting data:



- Only 25% of Israelis support reoccupying Gaza. 41% support ad hoc

operations in Gaza and 27% support using diplomatic means.



- When Israelis are asked about Israeli conventional wisdom on

talking with Hamas, a large majority (no figure provided) believe

that other Israelis are against it. When questioned how they feel

personally about talking to Hamas, 56% are in favor.



- An overwhelming majority (no figure provided) of Israelis support

negotiating with Hamas over Gilad Shalit's release.



- 25% of Israelis support returning the Golan Heights to Syria



- A large number of Israelis and Palestinians (no figure provided)

support the Clinton parameters for a peace agreement.



2. The conversation took place the same day that Israeli newspapers

were carrying front page stories about Netanyahu's large lead in the

polls. Shamir felt that the lead will not hold because the campaign

has not really begun and because Israelis are likely to blame the

financial reforms that Netanyahu implemented during his previous

time as Prime Minister for the growing Israeli financial crisis.



3. Comment: Israel is a heavily polled society but Shamir always

offers new ways of looking at the data. He is also the only Israeli

pollster working with a partner on the West Bank. They are

currently polling on views of the new administration and how it

should approach the peace process. Shamir has offered to share that

data when it becomes available. MORENO