THE AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH MERETZ PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 002554

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAL IS
SUBJECT: THE AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH MERETZ PARTY
CHAIRMAN ORON

Classified By: Ambassador James B. Cunningham, Reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) The Ambassador called on Meretz Party Chairman Chaim
Oron November 10. Oron, who was well-informed on the status
of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, said he it is likely
that Likud Party leader Bibi Netanyahu will focus his
election campaign on the economy, which is seen by many
Israelis as Netanyahu's strong suit, while down-playing
potential differences with the U.S. over Netanyahu's approach
to the Palestinians. Oron predicted that the February 10
elections will lead to the formation of a National Unity
Government including Likud, Kadima and Labor, no matter
whether Livni or Netanyahu "win." Oron said he agreed with
Shimon Peres' view that the Arab Initiative must serve as a
central element of the framework for Israeli-Palestinian
negotiations.


2. (C) Oron said he was concerned about Palestinian
succession issues. His view is that imprisoned Tanzim leader
Marwan Barghouti is the only likely successor to Mahmoud
Abbas. (Note: Barghouti is serving a life term for multiple
counts of ordering terrorist attacks that killed Israelis,
but he could be released as part of a prisoner exchange for
Gilad Shalit, or as the result of a decision by the security
cabinet and approved by the President.) Barghouti, he said,
is well briefed on the peace process and is in regular
contact with the PA and other Palestinian figures. His
influence is such the PM Fayyad visited him to seek
Barghouti's blessing before agreeing to take the PM job.
Oron predicted that Barghouti will support a peace agreement
if one is reached. The Ambassador asked Oron, who has
regular contact with Barghouti in prison, whether Barghouti
is bitter. Oron replied to the contrary, Barghouti is making
the most of his prison experience, reading extensively,
consulting with Palestinian leaders, including Abu Mazen and
Salam Fayyad, and benefiting from the boost to his street
credibility that comes with serving hard time in Israeli
detention.


3. (C) Oron expressed concern that if Netanyahu heads the
next Israeli government, he is likely to implement his ideas
about pursuing "economic peace" with the Palestinians while
downplaying political negotiations. Oron said this won't
work, there will be no economic peace without a political
process. He asserted this approach is likely to lead to a
third Intifada due to the dashing of Palestinian political
expectations. A third uprising in his view would break out
spontaneously as a result of an incident or miscalculation,
rather than be planned by the PA leadership.

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CUNNINGHAM