TENSION ESCALATES ALONG GAZA BORDER

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002547 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2018 TAGS: PTER PGOV MOPS KPAL IS SUBJECT: TENSION ESCALATES ALONG GAZA BORDER REF: TEL AVIV 2469 Classified By: DCM Luis G. Moreno, reasons 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (S) Summary: Hostilities continue to escalate along the Gaza border despite the current ceasefire -- "tahdiyeh" -- not scheduled to expire until December 19. Following a November 4 IDF raid into the Gaza Strip to destroy a tunnel (reftel),Palestinian terror organizations have steadily barraged Israeli territory with over 150 rockets and mortars. Four Hamas operatives were killed by IDF forces on November 12, leading to further rocket and mortar attacks. IDF and open sources indicate the IDF has been approved to operate in a security perimeter inside Gaza, while rules of engagement (ROE) have been expanded. The IDF postponed a change of command ceremony on November 13 for the Gaza Division Commander, and Defense Minister Barak has ordered that the Gaza border crossings remain closed. The GOI and Hamas both have stated publicly they have no desire to break the current ceasefire; however, both accuse the other of provocations and say they will respond to any attack, increasing the possibility that the situation may spiral out of control. IDF and open sources suggest the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is primarily responsible for the latest rocket and mortar attacks. However, the GOI has made clear that it holds Hamas responsible for any rocket or mortar attack emanating from Gaza. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) The most serious escalation since the beginning of the tahdiyeh on June 19 began November 4 with an IDF raid into Gaza to close a tunnel purportedly to be used to kidnap Israeli soldiers deployed near the border security fence. Since the November 4 raid, over 150 rockets and mortars have been fired into the Negev and the coastal area north of Gaza, with some hitting the center of Ashkelon. On November 12, IDF forces again entered Gaza in pursuit of a Hamas terrorist cell; four Hamas militants were killed. One long-range Grad rocket landed south of Ashkelon on November 13. During the morning of November 14, open sources report 11 Qassam rockets and three mortars landing near Sderot, and four Grad rockets landing in the vicinity of Ashkelon; seven Israelis were treated for shock, and one woman was lightly injured. Following this latest barrage, media reported an Israel Air Force strike at a rocket-launching area in northern Gaza. ¶3. (S) IDF and open sources indicate that the IDF has been approved to operate inside a security perimeter around Gaza, and that ROEs have been expanded. These expanded ROEs do not represent a significant change; long-standing IDF ROEs allow for counter-rocket strikes inside Gaza. However, the expanded ROEs indicate a heightened level of readiness; IDF sources note a redoubling of efforts in preparation of a possible collapse of the ceasefire. The state of alert in the IDF Gaza Division has been raised, and IDF Southern Regional Commander Maj. Gen. Galant and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Ashkenazi decided to postpone the change of command ceremony for outgoing Gaza Division Commander Chico Tamir with his successor Brig. Gen. Eyal Eisenberg five hours prior to the scheduled start time on November 13. ¶4. (SBU) In response to the rocket and mortar attacks, Minister of Defense Barak has ordered that the border crossings with Gaza be closed. As a result, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) was unable to carry out planned food distributions on November 13 due to a depletion of available commodities inside Gaza. Fuel shortages have resulted in blackouts for some 600,000 Gazans and compromised operations in Gaza City hospitals. The GOI had announced November 11 that it would resume fuel shipments to Gaza, although only slightly more than half of the expected 400,000 liters was delivered November 12, and no fuel was delivered November 13 due to two Qassam rockets landing near the Nahal Oz fuel terminal. Barak was quoted on Israel Radio the evening of November 13 saying that he would not endanger the lives of Israeli soldiers in order to keep Gaza supplied with fuel. ¶5. (SBU) On November 13, media sources indicate Prime Minister Olmert and Defense Minister Barak consulted (presumably by phone) with Egyptian Intelligence Minister Omar Soliman, reiterating that Israel will not be the first to break the tahdiyeh, but will "not hesitate to act" in response to any attack. Hamas also has publicly indicated it does not want to break the tahdiyeh, accusing Israel of provocations. A Hamas spokesperson told the Israeli newspaper Haaretz that Hamas is interested in maintaining the truce, but "not from a position of weakness." ¶6. (S) IDF and open sources suggest the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) has been primarily responsible for the latest rocket and mortar attacks. Media outlets speculate that earlier rockets and mortars landing in uninhabitable areas were launched by Hamas, suggesting a desire not to break the TEL AVIV 00002547 002 OF 002 tahdiyeh. That said, the GOI has made clear that it holds Hamas responsible for any rocket or mortar attack emanating from Gaza. Comment -------------- ¶7. (S) The GOI and Hamas have publicly reiterated interest in maintaining the tahdiyeh, although IDF and MOD sources have warned that Hamas is using the period of calm to build up its forces. However, both sides continue to test the other; rhetoric has increased as hostilities escalate. It is possible that the situation could spiral out of control, leading to a collapse of the tahdiyeh. An IDF resumption of targeted killings of Hamas officials not directly engaged in launching rockets or mortars would likely indicate a GOI decision to end the ceasefire. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** CUNNINGHAM