ISRAEL AND PA FACE WORSENING WATER SITUATION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 000242



SIPDIS



SIPDIS

SENSITIVE



DEPT FOR NEA/REA and OES/ENV

USDA FOR FAS/OCBD/DRDAD

AMMAN FOR ESTH - BHALLA



E.O. 12958: N/A

TAGS: SENV, EAGR, ENRG, IS, JO

SUBJ: ISRAEL AND PA FACE WORSENING WATER SITUATION



Ref: 07 Tel Aviv 1698



1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Israel and PA areas have received less than

two-thirds the average rainfall for this period during the 2007-2008

rainy season, and may face greater water scarcity than ever before.

The fourth consecutive year of poor rains will leave natural sources

of water unreplenished. The Jordan River, Lake Kinneret (Sea of

Galilee),and underground aquifers are already pumped beyond their

sustainable limits. Water recycling and desalination hold promise,

but imply tremendous investment in water and energy infrastructure.

Tight water supplies are likely to heighten political tensions with

the PA and Jordan in the coming year. This is a joint Embassy and

ConGen Jerusalem cable. End Summary.



Natural Water Sources Few

--------------



2. (SBU) That Israel is short of water is 3000-year-old news, but

rarely in the modern state's history has the situation appeared so

bleak. Over the past three years the region has experienced below

average rainfall during its annual rainy season, November through

March. This year Israel's official meteorological service has

recorded an average of 70.5 percent of normal rainfall in coastal

regions, 60 percent of normal rainfall at inland reporting stations,

and only 51.2 percent of normal at Jordan Rift Valley sites. This

sums to only 60.7 percent of average normal rainfall to date this

season. Total recharge for Lake Kinneret recorded at the end of

last year's rainy season was about the same 60 percent (reftel).



3. (U) Below average rains have left Lake Kinneret, the source of 30

percent of Israel's fresh water, at -212.54 meters below sea level,

while its normal range is between -209 and -213 meters. This

reading is only 50 centimeters (17 inches) above the redline level,

the lowest point at which Mekorot, Israel's national water utility,

can draw from the lake in view of hydrologic and functional

concerns. The pipeline drawing on the Lake has been closed since

early January.



4. (SBU) Alternative natural sources of water are also at low

levels, both from years of low rainfall and from over-pumping. The

four aquifers and the small natural springs west of the Jordan River

supply nearly half of the Palestinian water supply, and the other

half is purchased from Israel. Mekorot draws 36 percent of its

water from these same aquifers. At the December 2007 Trilateral

Water Working Group, convening Israeli Water Authority (IWA) and

Palestinian Water Authority (PWA) managers under USG chairmanship,

PWA officials stated that over 3000 illegal wells were operating in

the West Bank and Gaza. The Gaza aquifer, they noted, is

particularly over-pumped and polluted, with salinity increasing as

nearby seawater seeps into the diminishing freshwater table.

Currently, the PWA estimates that 30 percent of Gaza residents lack

potable drinking water.



5. (SBU) The Jordan River is one of the principal sources for water

for Israel, Jordan and the West Bank, and in addition to natural

springs, supplies 34 percent of Israel's supply. The Jordan has

already been heavily tapped, and its course below Lake Kinneret has

become little more than a dry river bed except for where

semi-treated wastewater or industrial effluent is pumped into the

channel. Long-standing PA demands to reallocate the River's waters

above and below Lake Kinneret by diminishing Israel's share have yet

to be negotiated. Calls to reduce tapping the Jordan River in order

to restore that valley's natural ecology and halt the shrinking of

the Dead Sea will receive even less action until fundamental human

subsistence needs are assured. The best Israel can expect from the

Jordan River in coming years will be the volume it presently draws,

and that is uncertain.



Non-Natural Water Sources

--------------



6. (SBU) Israel's two chief non-natural water sources are recycling

and desalination. Israel already records the highest level of water

treatment and reuse in the world; The IWA claims that over 70

percent of first-use water from the densely populated band including

Tel Aviv is reused. This treated "gray water" is sent onward for

industrial and agricultural purposes. The high reuse rate

effectively doubles the volume of water recycled, greatly increasing

the impact of each cubic meter of natural-source water. While

further investments in recycling water will yield benefits, it

becomes a high cost source in sparsely populated areas or when

industrial pollutants must be separated out.



7. (SBU) This leaves the desalination option. Desalination remains

the GOI's hope for addressing the country's long-term water

shortage. Israel is a global leader in desalination technology, and



TEL AVIV 00000242 002 OF 002





Mekorot has 31 desalination plants operating in Israel. GOI

Minister of Infrastructure Binyamin Ben Eliezer has approved plans

to nearly quadruple existing desalination capacity, from 124 million

cubic meters annually to nearly 500 mcm. Major expansions of

facilities in Ashkelon, Hadera and Palmachim are planned, and new

installations in Rishon Le Zion and Ashdod will be built. This

additional capacity will not be brought on-line until 2012 and

after, however.



The Energy-Water Connection

--------------



8. (SBU) Desalinated water is expensive, however, costing up to

three or four times naturally-sourced water. Desalination

technology filters sea water through multiple layers of filtering

fibers at very high pressures (up to 40 atmospheres),or distills

seawater through electrolysis or heat. Either system requires large

amounts of energy. There is a transformation nexus between energy

and water; creating water requires energy, and effective use of

water can help save energy. As demonstrated by oil-rich Persian

Gulf states, a large investment of energy can yield as much water as

desired. Israel has deep resources of neither energy nor water,

however. Israel's present installed capacity of 10,800 megawatts is

generated by coal (63 percent),natural gas (20 percent),diesel (15

percent) and the balance from alternative sources such as wind,

biomass, and solar. Israel currently uses about 6 percent of its

total generated electricity for moving water around the country;

including the bill for desalination plants, Mekorot is already the

largest single electricity consumer in Israel. Greater water

recycling will increase this amount. Producing more desalinated

water implies both more investment in new generating capacity, and

potentially greater expense for the imported fuel sources this

entails.



9. (U) Solar energy is the favored alternative energy source in

Israel. Despite announcing a national objective of 2 percent of

Israel's electricity generated by alternative sources by 2007, the

first solar-generated electric plant in the country is only now

entering the bidding stage, having been delayed years by

bureaucratic logjams over land allocation and bidding procedures.

Minister Eliezer stated on January 23 that Israel should commit

itself to supplying 10 percent of its energy from renewable sources

by 2020.



In Lieu of Conclusions

--------------



10. (SBU) Weather forecasters are not expecting the amount of rain

due in the coming two months to compensate for years of substandard

precipitation. Predictions are for normal to lighter than normal

rains. Barring divine intervention - not to be ruled out in this

region - the following circumstances may prevail:



-- Over-pumping of aquifers will continue west of the Jordan River,

leading to deteriorating water quality in Israel and PA areas.



-- Pressure on Israel to share its desalination capacity with

neighboring PA areas will increase. This was already seen at the

December Trilateral Water Working Group.



-- Public demands to address the water shortage will increase into

the summer, particularly in PA areas; tensions in Gaza will rise

further.



-- Water resource allocation issues will increase in importance in

the Annapolis Process working groups.



-- Given the lead-time needed to bring any new freshwater generating

capacity on-line in the region, from either natural or man-made

sources, these tensions will have to be managed and short-term

solutions sought, such as major public conservation campaigns.



-- Solving regional water scarcity will have long-term implications

on regional power generation plans, given the water-energy nexus.



-- Private sector and NGOs will likely propose quick-fix solutions

(waterbag technology, tanker-ships, pipelines),but these are costly

and mostly untested solutions.



MORENO