LIVNI BEGINS WORK TOWARD BUILDING A NEW COALITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002166

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR IS
SUBJECT: LIVNI BEGINS WORK TOWARD BUILDING A NEW COALITION

Classified By: Political Counselor Marc J. Sievers. Reason 1.4 (B/D)


1. (SBU) Summary: President Shimon Peres gave FM Tzipi
Livni the nod to try to form a new coalition from the
existing Knesset on the evening of September 22. She must
do so no later than November 4 or early elections must be
held within 90 days. Negative media coverage of a meeting
between Labor and Likud leaders may ultimately facilitate
her efforts, as neither Ehud Barak nor Binyamin Netanyahu
appear ready to join forces against Livni at this
juncture. With Kadima steadying its keel following the
September 17 primary and several smaller parties (the two
pensioner factions, Meretz, and possibly United Torah
Judaism) ready to sign aboard, the main challenges for
Livni appear to be managing Barak and negotiating an
acceptable package of incentives for Shas to remain in the
coalition. Livni held meetings with Shas Party leader Eli
Yishai on September 23 and plans to meet Barak as well.
End Summary.

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Double Negatives: Barak and Bibi
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2. (C) When Minister of Defense Ehud Barak and Opposition
Leader Binyamin Netanyahu attract media attention, it is
often negative. The September 20 tete-a-tete meeting
between the two former prime ministers that followed FM
Tzipi Livni's razor-thin Kadima Party primary victory
struck several discordant messages. First, Barak appeared
to be conspiring with the opposition before even meeting
with Kadima, the party that Barak had, just three months
ago, called on to change its leadership in the interest of
stability and the state. Barak, who one Laborite said is
stricken with "social autism," failed to communicate his
strategy to his lieutenants or the general public, leaving
most Labor MK's scratching their heads or demanding
explanations. Finally, Netanyahu's reiterated refusal to
consider joining a national unity government without
general elections remains at odds with the impassioned
urgency that he uses to describe the Iranian nuclear threat
and the public's desire for politicians to join forces to
confront it.


3. (C) One Labor aide dismissed the media's accusations
that Netanyahu and Barak are male chauvinists, saying that
the two leaders are genuinely shocked and, like Mofaz,
unable to come to grips with Livni's rapid rise to power.
This explained, in his view, Barak's behavior on the
margins of the September 21 cabinet meeting, where Barak
was overheard shouting on the phone that the Labor Party
must put forward his name as the person best able to form a
government following Olmert's resignation. That he is
ineligible for this role did not matter to Barak, who
reportedly blustered that the law mandating that the PM be
a member of the Knesset should be changed. A journalist
close to Labor MK Shelly Yacimovich, who has been the most
vocal Labor champion of early elections, provided a more
political explanation for Barak's behavior: She has argued
in Labor circles that the only means for Labor to return to
power was from the opposition, not as number two to Livni.
The weakness of the Yacimovich argument is that the Labor
Party lacks unity, vision, organizational structure, and
financing for an early election, according to this
journalist. MK Nadia Helou told poloff September 23 that
she and many other Labor Party members would continue to
object to early elections.


4. (U) As of September 23, Israel radio reported that
Livni and Yishai (Shas) met and agreed to name two teams to
form a committee to examine Shas demands regarding
socio-economic issues. Livni also plans to meet Barak
again this evening. Labor sources are reporting that Barak
may in fact be interested in joining a new coalition, and
that reported redlines concerning Labor demands about the
removal of Justice Minister Friedmann may in fact be
limited to preserving the powers of the Supreme Court.

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Kadima Confident
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5. (C) The Kadima faction leader, MK Yoel Hasson, told
poloff September 23 that 28 of the 29 MK's in the Kadima
Party supported Livni's effors to form a new government
from the existing Kneset. Only the right-wing (settler)
MK Ze'ev Elki continues to challenge the results of the
Kadim primary. Many anticipate that Mofaz, who
surprsingly "withdrew" from politics for a "break" onSeptember 18, would return sooner than later. Mofz has
put forward a number of transportation bills for cabinet
consideration on September 28, accoding to a ministerial
aide who interpreted the mve as an indicator of Mofaz'

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eventual reemergence. The aide expressed optimism that
Kadima would be able to put together a new coalition around
the original guidelines of the 2006 coalition, and that a
way forward with Labor and Shas would be found. Hasson
noted that Kadima had weathered many challenges, and was
now, under Livni, well-positioned for the future -- even if
early elections are in the cards, an assessment that Kadima
officials are disseminating widely.


6. (U) After several days of gloomy forecasts, politicians
in other parties (including in the opposition party,
Yisrael Beiteinu) now tend to believe that a new coalition
deal is within Livni's grasp. An aide to Labor MK Ayalon
told poloff that Shas MK Eli Yishai's opening price -- more
child allowances for large families, more money for Shas
schools, and no negotiations over Jerusalem -- would be
whittled back to positions acceptable to Shas and Kadima.
The views of Shas spiritual leader Ovadia Yossef will be
determinative. The Barak-Livni meeting this evening may
shed light on the direction Labor is heading and Barak's
willingness to work as her partner.

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