CABINET APPROVES RELEASE OF 199 PALESTINIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001834

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAL IS
SUBJECT: CABINET APPROVES RELEASE OF 199 PALESTINIAN
PRISONERS, INCLUDING SOME "WITH BLOOD ON THEIR HANDS"

REF: TEL AVIV 1535

Classified By: DCM Luis G. Moreno for reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) Summary: The ministerial committee charged with
prisoner issues voted August 18 to approve a list of 199
Palestinian prisoners to be released August 25, just before
Ramadan, as a concession to PA President Abbas. The list is
comprised exclusively of Fatah and affiliated prisoners, and
includes two Palestinians serving life sentences for
terrorist attacks. Although the decision to release
prisoners "with blood on their hands" and who have not yet
served two-thirds of their sentences violates previous GOI
red lines, there has not been a widespread public outcry over
the planned release. This may give Olmert, or the next
cabinet, more flexibility in identifying meaningful prisoners
for release in future discussions with the PA. The decision
to release only Fatah members was condemned by Hamas and may
complicate the negotiations for Shalit's release. End
Summary.

List of 199 Includes Prisoners "with Blood on their Hands"
-------------- --------------


2. (U) A ministerial committee established to deal with
prisoner issues convened August 18 to approve a list of 199
Palestinian prisoners that PM Olmert pledged to release to PA
President Abbas following their last meeting in Jerusalem on
August 6. Shortly after the ministerial committee voted to
approve the prisoner release, planned for August 25, the
Israel Prison Service (IPS) published the names of the 199
prisoners on the list, all of whom belong to Fatah or allied
factions. Among those slated for release are two convicted
killers serving life terms: Said al-Ataba, who was sentenced
to life for his role in a 1977 bombing that killed one
Israeli, and Muhammed Ibrahim (Abu Ali Yatta),who is serving
two life sentences for the murder of a settler in Hebron in
1979 and the subsequent jailhouse murder of a fellow
Palestinian suspected of collaborating with Israel. While in
jail, Ibrahim was also elected to the Palestinian Parliament
as a Fatah representative in the 2006 PA elections. Of the
remaining 197 prisoners, 133 were convicted of violent
crimes, including attempted murder, shooting attacks and
planting bombs. Most were arrested following the outbreak of
the second intifada in 2000 and have a considerable amount of
time remaining on their sentences. Israelis opposed to the
release now have until August 20 to petition the High Court,
although in recent prisoner releases the High Court has
declined to intervene.

Muted Reactions
--------------


3. (C) The list of prisoners slated for release crosses two
of Israel's previous red lines regarding prisoners. In all
other post-Annapolis releases, the GOI has publicly stated
that it would not release prisoners "with blood on their
hands" or who had not yet served two-thirds of their
sentences. The list of prisoners published August 18
violates both of these conditions. However, unlike in recent
months when the public appeared to value these red lines,
most Israelis now seem almost indifferent to the issue,
judging by the lack of outcry in the op-ed pages of Israeli
newspapers. With a few predictable exceptions, neither the
press nor the political opposition have been making a big
deal about the inclusion of violent offenders among those
slated for release. According to press reports, the only
members of the ministerial committee to vote against the
release were Kadima ministers Shaul Mofaz and Avi Dichter,
both of whom are contesting the Kadima primary elections and
both of whom made statements intended to bolster their
security credentials at the expense of FM Livni.

A New Bar for Future Releases?
--------------


4. (C) In addition to the current preoccupation with internal
politics, Israelis have also become somewhat jaded to the
now-familiar process of releasing batches of Palestinian
prisoners every couple of months as a gesture of goodwill to
President Abbas. Moreover, the July 16 release of the man
who is probably Israel's most hated terrorist -- Sami Kuntar
-- in a swap with Hizballah (reftel),left most Israelis with
the impression that the usual red lines have already shifted.
In either case, Olmert's ability to release "meaningful"
prisoners bodes well for GOI flexibility in future prisoner
concessions to the PA. The Israelis will expect Palestinian
recognition of the significance of their gesture.

What Does it Mean for Hamas and Gilad Shalit?
--------------

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5. (C) The planned release also puts Hamas in a difficult
position, since none of its members were on the list and the
GOI continues to balk at Hamas' insistence on including high
value terrorists among those who would be released in
exchange for abducted Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. The
Israelis are calculating that ordinary Palestinians will
judge Abbas successful for getting meaningful prisoners
released through dialogue, while Hamas remains unable to
accomplish a similar feat even in exchange for a living
Israeli soldier. According to the Israeli press, Hamas
spokesmen in Gaza condemned the planned release as an Israeli
attempt to drive yet another wedge between Fatah and Hamas.
At the same time, as Mofaz and others suggested in their
criticism of the cabinet's decision, Hamas' anger over the
current deal and the perception that Israel is now more
willing to release violent prisoners may lead Hamas to demand
an even greater price in exchange for the release of Glad
Shalit.

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