ISRAEL EXCHANGES 5 HIZBALLAH PRISONERS FOR BODIES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 001535 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER LE IS SUBJECT: ISRAEL EXCHANGES 5 HIZBALLAH PRISONERS FOR BODIES OF ABDUCTED IDF SOLDIERS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Earlier today, July 16, Hizballah delivered the bodies of abducted IDF soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev to Israel via the Rosh Hanikra border crossing. In exchange, Israel released convicted Lebanese murderer Samir Kuntar and four Hizballah militants captured during the 2006 Israel-Hizballah conflict, and handed over the remains of 199 Lebanese and Palestinian infiltrators and militants. Future stages of the agreement call for Israel to release an undisclosed number of Palestinian prisoners and deliver a report on the fate of four Iranian diplomats who disappeared during Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon. In the first stage of the deal, last week, Hizballah delivered a lengthy but ultimately inconclusive report on the fate of missing Israel Air force navigator Ron Arad. In the wake of today's exchange, the IDF has gone on high alert along the northern border amid fears that Hizballah might take advantage of the post-exchange period to make good on its threat to avenge the assassination of Imad Mugniyah by sending commandos to raid an Israeli town or abduct another IDF soldier. End summary. -------------- The Deal -------------- ¶2. (SBU) As reported widely in the press, beginning at 9:00 local time today, July 16, Israel and Hizballah initiated a multi-stage prisoner exchange under the auspices of the ICRC. The exchange, which concluded eight hours later at the Rosh Hanikra border crossing between Israel and Lebanon, started with the delivery to Israel of the bodies of abducted IDF soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev (whose July 12, 2006 abduction sparked that summer's conflict between Israel and Hizballah). After the remains were confirmed as those of Goldwasser and Regev, the IDF delivered convicted Lebanese national and Palestinian Liberation Front militant Samir Kuntar and four Hizballah fighters captured in the 2006 conflict to the ICRC for transport across the border and into Lebanon. The IDF also released the bodies of 199 Lebanese and Palestinian militants and infiltrators killed during various conflicts with Israel over the years. ¶3. (SBU) While today's dramatic exchange on the Israel-Lebanon border marks the centerpiece of the GOI-Hizballah deal brokered by a German mediator, the agreement also includes the following additional elements, which were endorsed by the Israeli Cabinet on June 29 and upheld by a second Cabinet vote July 15: -- Hizballah agreed to deliver a report on the fate of missing Israel Air Force navigator Ron Arad, who was shot down of Lebanon in 1986. (Note: The report on Arad was delivered to Israel last week. While PM Olmert and other GOI officials expressed disappointment with the inconclusive nature of the report, they decided to continue with the exchange.) -- Israel will deliver to UNSYG Ban Ki-Moon information on the fate of four Iranian diplomats who disappeared during Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon. -- Following the implementation of the other clauses of the deal, Israel will release an undisclosed number of Palestinian prisoners. In its June 29 decision, the Israeli Cabinet stressed that the "number and identities of the (Palestinian) prisoners will be determined at the sole discretion of the State of Israel." -------------- Not a Day for Celebration -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Today's exchange is the culmination of a two-year effort by a UNSYG-appointed German mediator to secure the release of Regev and Goldwasser. Only in the past few weeks, however, have mainstream Israelis begun to realize that the soldiers were probably no longer alive, and that the price for recovering their remains would include the release of notorious Lebanese terrorist Samir Kuntar, who was sentenced to life imprisonment for the brutal 1979 killing of an Israeli man and his 4 year-old daughter in their home in the northern Israeli town of Nahariya. The decision to accept the agreement with Hizballah, announced June 29, was met with a mixture of outrage and resignation. Israelis seem to generally accept the necessity of releasing Kuntar in order to resolve the fate of Goldwasser and Regev, but are angry that their government has traded living terrorists for dead soldiers. PM Olmert's spokesman, Mark Regev, told BBC earlier today that while the GOI felt a "profound sense of obligation to bring the soldiers back," it was nevertheless "a difficult day for Israel." "It's not a day for TEL AVIV 00001535 002 OF 002 celebration, (as) we have been forced to release a particularly despicable person," he said. In a statement released after his official pardon of Kuntar and the four Hizballah fighters yesterday, President Peres declared that "this decision in no way constitutes forgiveness to the murderer for his abominable and reprehensible crimes. I neither forgive nor forget." -------------- What Next? -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The GOI has been very clear that it does not intend to use the German mediation channel to pursue any further indirect talks with Hizballah. While Israeli officials, including PM Olmert, have stated in the past few weeks that they would welcome direct, full-spectrum talks without preconditions with the Lebanese government of PM Siniora, they have no interest in dealing with Hizballah once they have secured the release of Goldwasser and Regev. The GOI also fears that Hizballah might take advantage of the post-exchange period to make good on its threats to avenge the assassination of Hizballah Operations Chief Imad Mugniyah (which Nasrallah blamed on Israel). Fearing that a revenge attack could take place inside Israel itself, the IDF last week went on high alert along the northern border. IDF and other security officials have told the press in recent days that Hizballah might be considering sending commandos to raid an Israeli border town or abduct another IDF soldier. The IDF will likely maintain its heightened border posture throughout the coming days and perhaps weeks. ********************************************* ******************** Visit Embassy Tel Aviv's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/telaviv You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* ******************** MORENO