HONDURAS REACTION TO PATHWAYS TO PROSPERITY IN THE

UNCLAS TEGUCIGALPA 000864 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT PASS USTR E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECIN ETRD HO SUBJECT: HONDURAS REACTION TO PATHWAYS TO PROSPERITY IN THE AMERICAS REF: A. A. TEGUCIGALPA 793 ¶B. B. TEGUCIGALPA 732 ¶C. C. TEGUCIGALPA 703 ¶D. D. TEGUCIGALPA 500 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Post has discussed preparations for the President's PPA initiative with the highest levels of the Honduran Government, including in Ambassador's introductory call with President Zelaya September 19. Based on those conversations and recent developments here, we do not expect Zelaya to grandstand at the September 24 gathering. Rather, we think he will either remain quiet or use the opportunity to stress that, while pursuing financial assistance from Venezuela through ALBA, he remains committed to CAFTA-DR. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) As reftels report, the GOH has been generally positive toward the USG initiative now known as PPA from its inception, but has not played a particularly active role in its formulation. President Zelaya indicated to us as early as late July that he was favorably inclined to participate (ref C). We attribute the relative lack of GOH engagement in recent weeks to distractions, such as other ongoing trade negotiations and the ALBA controversy, combined with an extremely thin bench in the Honduran trade bureaucracy. ¶3. (SBU) Although Zelaya has adopted some fairly extreme and illiberal rhetoric over the last two months, largely we think to shore up his diminishing domestic support and secure Venezuelan and Cuban aid, we do not expect him to attempt to spoil the party at the September 24 summit. Zelaya has come under harsh attack domestically since signing an ALBA accession document August 25, and a recent poll showed public opinion was against him by more than 2-1. His critics have alleged that his pursuit of closer relations with leftist regimes would put in jeopardy Honduras's trade and other relations with the United States and possibly lead to more deportations of Honduran illegal aliens and refusal to extend Temporary Protected Status. These attacks became more intense after Zelaya postponed the Ambassador's presentation of credentials, originally scheduled for September 12, and highlighted ALBA in his independence day message September 15. ¶4. (SBU) At Zelaya,s request, Embassy issued a press release September 17 stating that U.S. immigration policy was not affected by Zelaya,s recent diplomatic moves. Zelaya went on live TV to trumpet the statement and rebut his domestic critics. He stressed in that TV address that he remained committed to CAFTA-DR and to maintaining good trade and other relations with the United States. ¶5. (SBU) In his meeting with the Ambassador September 19, following the Ambassador's presentation of credentials, Zelaya said that President Bush had been a good friend of Central America and Honduras through his support for CAFTA. Zelaya said that he would be a constructive and positive participant in the meetings with President Bush and the other heads of state in New York. In a brief press conference following the meeting, the Ambassador highlighted the upcoming PPA summit as an indication of continued U.S. commitment to economic engagement with the region. ¶6. (SBU) Comment: We infer that, his recent leftward tack notwithstanding, Zelaya,s current domestic political imperative is to deflate his conservative critics by demonstrating that he has not damaged Honduran-U.S. relations or put the country's commercial or economic interests at risk. Although Zelaya is unpredictable by nature, we do not expect him to make trouble at the PPA summit. End Comment. LLORENS