PRESIDENT ZELAYA ASKS CONGRESS TO INVESTIGATE AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000336 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM EFIN ENRG HN SUBJECT: PRESIDENT ZELAYA ASKS CONGRESS TO INVESTIGATE AND IMPEACH SUPREME COURT OVER "HOY NO CIRCULA" DECISION REF: TEGUCIGALPA 334 Classified By: Ambassador Charles A. Ford, reasons 104. (B & D) ¶1. (C) Summary. President Manuel Zelaya attributes his electoral victory two years ago to his promise to contain energy prices and has subsidized fuel prices and electricity rates since he entered office. The cost of those subsidies has become unsustainable. In a poorly thought-out plan to reduce oil imports and foreign exchange losses without raising prices, he designed a program called "Hoy no Circula" (Don't Drive Today) which would force car owners to select one day a week on which they would not drive. Public reaction was overwhelmingly negative, and five cases were filed with the Supreme Court alleging the plan interfered with a citizen's right to freely circulate within the territory. Before the court could rule, Zelaya implemented the plan by executive decree and warned the court not to "politicize" their decision. When the court ruled in favor of receiving the cases and suspended the measure on April 9, Zelaya blasted the court and the entire National Party, and asked the Congress to investigate and impeach the Supreme Court. On April 10, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court said she received death threats. Although the President of Congress, through two confidantes, assured us the Congress would not form a committee or take action against the justices, these threats are still very concerning. This is not just about restricting the circulation of vehicles but a much bigger battle by Zelaya and his people to perpetuate their power and ideas after he leaves office. End Summary. Hoy No Circula -------------- ¶2. (U) In late March, the Zelaya administration announced a plan termed "Hoy no Circula" (don't drive today) which would force car owners to select one day a week (other than Sunday) on which they would not drive and obtain a windshield sticker indicating that day. According to the creators, the plan was designed to reduce oil imports and foreign exchange losses without either raising pump prices or devaluing the exchange rate. Subsides to keep pump prices from rising despite sharp increases in global oil prices (Honduras produces no oil), and electricity rates that do not cover the national electrical company's costs (70 percent of electricity is generated with fuel oil) are busting the budget. The new IMF Standby Agreement requires the GOH to reduce these subsidies. Program Extremely Unpopular -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Reaction to the announcement was visceral, as almost all segments of society were against it -- except the most poor, who do not own vehicles. (Note: This poorest segment of society is one of the core constituencies of the Zelaya administration's leftist advisors known as the "Patricios." End Note.) Citizens complained because they paid taxes and felt a restriction violated their rights to free movement within the territory, and also complained that there were no viable, safe options for mass transit. Many private citizens spoke out about the plan, such as a pregnant woman who said she feared for her baby's life if she were forced to ride public transportation. National Party Mayor Ricardo Alvarez became one of the most visible spokespersons against the measure, organizing a campaign for all drivers to drive with their lights on April 4 (it was mildly successful),and opening an office that offered free legal services to those who were fined under the program (USD 36 for driving on an unauthorized day). National Party Congressman Antonio Rivera threatened to file a motion in the Congress to stop the plan, but was not recognized by the President of Congress Roberto Micheletti even though he held his hand up for several hours requesting permission to speak. Even Liberal Party Members of Congress expressed displeasure with the plan, most notably Jose Azcona Bocock, Micheletti's campaign manager, who also attempted to file a motion with in the Congress to have the measure thrown out. In the end, five challenges were filed with the Supreme Court. Measure Enacted By Executive Decree -------------- ¶3. (C) Before the court ruled on these five cases, Zelaya decided to enact the measure by executive decree. He even warned the court publicly that it should not "politicize" its decision in this case. People began to report to the various offices to choose which day they would not drive and pick up their stickers. (Note: No one knows who actually produced these hundreds of thousands of stickers -- there was no public solicitation for bids. The stickers simply showed up in the offices overnight, probably making the printer a hefty profit. End note.) Then on April 7, the program was officially inaugurated, with Minister of the Presidency Enrique Flores Lanza walking to work (with dozens of armed guards around him) in a symbolic show of solidarity. Casual observation the first two days indicated compliance with the new rules was mixed, and the effect on traffic congestion was not noticeable. If anything, congestion increased as police stopped vehicles to inspect stickers. Supreme Court Decision - and Zelaya's Reaction -------------- - ¶4. (U) On April 9, the Supreme Court announced in a mixed decision (nine in favor, six against) that of the five cases presented, four of them were in compliance with the requirements in order to be accepted for review. The cases will go to the Constitutional Court to be considered, but in the meantime, the court suspended "Hoy no Circula" until a decision could be reached. Zelaya immediately interrupted all local television broadcasts with a scathing denunciation of the court for its "political" decision and attacking the National Party repeatedly for its actions and attitude in general. He also called for the Congress to "investigate" and "impeach" justices who he accused of having made a political decision in the case. Subsequently, two Micheletti confidantes, Gabriela Nunez, Micheletti's vice presidential candidate, and Jose Saavedra, Liberal Party whip, both assured us that Micheletti would not form a committee and would not investigate the judges for misconduct. Saavedra was confident that Micheletti could calm Zelaya down and convince him that attacking the independence of the court was not in anyone's interests. Supreme Court Chief Justice Receives Death Threats -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) On April 10, PolCouns spoke to Supreme Court Chief Justice Vilma Morales who tearfully described death threats she had received on her personal cell phone. Morales also described the threatening phone call she had received from Zelaya prior to the issuance of a decision. Morales went public later that evening, but kept a strong public face and continued to insist on the independence of the court and the separation of powers. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Zelaya has been under siege recently and his reaction has been to come out swinging. He forcibly took over radio slots on the most popular stations (see REFTEL),and took over television broadcasts to issue threats against the Supreme Court. He will probably use the suspension of the "Hoy no Circula" program to finally remove the unrealistic and unsustainable fuel subsidies, raise prices on gasoline and electricity, and blame it on the National Party. This whole predicament, however, is not just about a measure to keep cars off the road one day a week. It is about Zelaya and his "Patricios" plan to implement their populist ideas and ensure their longevity after Zelaya leaves office. To perpetuate their power and their ideas, Zelaya has disregarded his personal dislike for Micheletti and joined up with him publicly in a political alliance. Gabriela Nunez told us that internal party numbers showed Micheletti with an abysmal 16 percent, trailing both Eduardo Maldonado with 20 percent and current Vice President Elvin Santos with 21 percent. Nunez said that their only hope of victory in the primaries was to join forces with Zelaya. This alliance brings the Liberal Party presidency and some of the poorest bases, but in exchange, Micheletti has allegedly given up major positions to Zelaya's "Patricios." What is most concerning, however, in this entire scenario are the threats made by Zelaya both directly and indirectly against the Supreme Court. Although Micheletti, through Nunez and Saavedra, has assured us that the Congress will not form a committee nor take any action against the justices, control over the court, both current and subsequent, is all-important for this power-hungry political class. Micheletti believes he will be able to calm Zelaya's ire but we fully expect future attacks against this institution. End Comment. Ford