(C) FORMER MINISTER OF SECURITY OSCAR ALVAREZ TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000322

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM MARR PINS HN
SUBJECT: (C) FORMER MINISTER OF SECURITY OSCAR ALVAREZ TO
BE PEPE LOBO'S VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE

Classified By: Ambassador Charles A. Ford, Reasons 1.4 (b & d)


1. (C) On April 7 the Ambassador met with Oscar Alvarez, the
enormously popular former Minister of Security under
President Ricardo Maduro. Alvarez told the Ambassador that
Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo had asked him to be his running mate,
and he had accepted, effectively stopping rumors that former
Central Bank President Maria Elena Mondragon would round out
Lobo's ticket. Alvarez said Lobo would be creating three
"hubs" of issues if elected -- Security, Economic and Social
-- and that the Vice President would be in charge of
security. Alvarez predicted President of Congress Roberto
Micheletti would easily win the Liberal Party primary, and
warned that President Manuel Zelaya may try to create a
crisis within the National Register of Persons (RNP) a few
months before the general elections in order to extend his
mandate past 2009. End summary.


2. (C) on April 7, Ambassador met with former Minister of
Security Oscar Alvarez, to discuss the general political
atmosphere. Alvarez still remains enormously popular, and
could play a key role in the upcoming presidential elections.
Alvarez told us that Porfirio "Pepe" Lobo had asked him to
be his vice presidential running mate, which he accepted. He
is currently serving as vice-consul at the Honduran consulate
in Houston, where he re-located following the National Party
defeat in the 2005 elections, but stated he will be returning
to Honduras in July to concentrate on the campaign. Based on
the decisive actions he took against criminals as Minister,
Alvarez still fears for his family's safety and said he will
leave his wife and youngest child in the United States so
that his son can finish high school.

Lobo's Vision
--------------

3. (C) Alvarez said that the Maduro administration had done
such a good job on curbing crime that when Lobo began his
campaign in 2004, security was no longer the "hot" issue of
the day. Unfortunately, Lobo did not realize this in time
and spent too much time and energy on security issues during
the campaign. Following four years of a Zelaya
administration, however, security has once again risen to be
one of the citizenry's biggest concerns, so Alvarez told us
that if elected, Lobo would ceate a type of "Department of
Homeland Security"under the Vice President that would
include the Mnistries of Security, Defense, Governance and
Jutice, and the Public Ministry. Alvarez said Lobo ould
also task key trusted advisors to take on te cross-cutting
issues of economics and social isues, basically creating
three "hubs" the governmnt would address. Alvarez said Lobo
was worriedthe USG would view his attention to social issues
as cause for concern, but the Ambassador reassure him that
the USG would view attention to povert alleviation and
investing in people positively a long as the government
stayed within the generaly accepted rules of democratic
behavior and didnot take any rash measures such as violating
private property rights or sound macroeconomics principles.

Observations on the Liberal Party and Zelaya
--------------

4. (C) Alvarez said that President of Congress Roberto
Micheletti will win the Liberal Party primary because he
controls the party apparatus, which controls the individual
voting tables around the country. He said that current vice
president Elvin Santos was tricked into declaring his
candidacy by President Manual Zelaya, and will be sacrificed
by Zelaya in order to get Micheletti to give him key
positions on the next Supreme Court and the next Congress.
Alvarez was pleased, however, that Santos has thrown his hat
in the ring for president, as he said that it could pave the
way for him to run in the future, if he so chooses. Alvarez
predicted that Zelaya would create a crisis, most likely in
the National Registry of Persons (RNP),in the last months of
his administration in an attempt to remain in power. Alvarez
was worried that Zelaya might try to manipulate the good
relations he has built up with the armed forces by giving
soldiers three salary raises in the past two years in order
to carry out his nefarious plan, but was pleased when the
Ambassador related his conversations with Chief of Defense
Romeo Vasquez Velasquez on this topic. (Note: Vasquez has

told the Ambassador repeatedly he would support the
constitution in the face of a constitutional crisis. End
note.)


5. (C) Alvarez, a former employee at the embassy, worked very
closely with the USG as Minister of Security. Known is the
press as the "show man," he included dozens of journalists on
his ministry's payroll. Human rights activists have
questioned his record, noting that "suicides" and fires
occurred regularly in the prisons during his mandate. Former
Foreign Minister Milton Jimenez publicly criticized the
proposed naming of Alvarez to a diplomatic posting, but was
overruled by President Zelaya, perhaps suggesting Alvarez'
knowledge of Zelaya's hidden past.

Comment
--------------

6. (C) Alvarez is a popular figure who will bring prestige to
the Lobo ticket. We had heard Lobo would be asking former
Central Bank President under Maduro, Maria Elena Mondragon,
to be his vice presidential running mate, but it looks like
now she will have to settle for being in charge of the
"Economic hub" of Lobo's administration if he is elected.
Lobo is slowly amassing a qualified and intelligent team, and
his candidacy seems almost completely assured. Micheletti,
on the other side, is also slowly cementing his candidacy by
bringing in new people, including a large number of mayors
that had originally sided with Santos, to his team. In
conjunction ith his extensive funds obtained through his
conrol of congress, Micheletti's team will put up a god
fight against Lobo. At this point, the race i still too
close to call. End comment.
Ford