GEORGIAN OPPOSITION, BURJANADZE REPORTEDLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 000963 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM GG SUBJECT: GEORGIAN OPPOSITION, BURJANADZE REPORTEDLY EXPLORING OPTIONS REF: TBILISI 925 Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: As the first meeting of Georgia's next Parliament nears on June 10, the Joint Opposition and the Labor Party continue to talk about boycotting the new Parliament and even blocking access to the building, to reinforce their position that the May 21 election was invalidated by fraud. The government promises that illegal attempts to blockade the Parliament will be met by force. The Republicans, the Christian Democratic Movement (CDM),and others are hedging their bets. They are reluctant to go along with boycotts and preventing the Parliament from convening (reftel). Many among the opposition candidates-elect are looking for a face-saving way to take up seats and are warily evaluating government offers of a minority status with true influence and participation in executive positions. A significant remaining question mark, which could change the political calculus, involves the future plans of outgoing Parliamentary Speaker Nino Burjanadze. She reportedly plans to announce the creation of a foundation/think tank on June 9, as the first step in creating a new political party and running for President in ¶2013. End Summary. NDI Holds Roundtables with Opposition -------------- ¶2. (C) On June 3, Mary O'Hagan, Chief of Party of the USAID-funded National Democratic Institute (NDI),held a roundtable for opposition parties elected to Parliament on May 21. Representatives were present from the Joint Opposition, the CDM, and Labor. The roundtable was designed to discuss realistic demands the opposition could put forth, which, if met by the government, could allow those opposition members-elect to take their seats in Parliament. O'Hagan reported that after four hours of deliberation, the leaders finally came up with some ideas, but not a consensus on supporting them. She noted a lack of confidence and imagination on the leaders' parts, but said they did brighten somewhat after realizing that things might improve if they join Parliament. Further discussions followed and appear to be continuing (to be reported septel). Some ideas the participants offered included: -- No changes to the constitution without the opposition's consent. -- Improving the election system (i.e. equaling the constituencies of the majoritarian districts, bringing forward local elections, or thoroughly investigating and holding accountable those responsible for intimidation and assaults). -- International involvement in monitoring the media between elections. -- Changing the rules in Parliament to encourage opposition participation and responsibility (i.e. reducing the requirements for forming a faction, offering Deputy Speaker positions and committee chairmanships to opposition MPs, appointing an opposition MP to head the Chamber of Control and creating a committee to review past expenditures). -- Appointing some opposition members to Deputy Minister positions in the executive branch. Targamadze and Gamsakhurdia Look Ahead -------------- ¶3. (C) On June 3, Dmitri Shashkin (please strictly protect) of the International Republican Institute of Georgia (IRI) briefed Poloff on his recent conversations with members of the opposition parties elected to Parliament, including the CDM. (Note: IRI has been funded by USAID for several years to provide political party training in Georgia. End note.) He said the CDM leader, Giorgi Targamadze, will likely not attend the first session of Parliament. However, he does not expect the CDM to join in a blockade of Parliament on the 10th. Unless a breakthrough occurs, Shashkin claimed Targamadze may tour the regions this summer (during the slow months, when Parliament is in recess) and consult his supporters about taking his seat. Following this he plans to meet with the Patriarch and seek support for entering Parliament and working on laws he proposed during the campaign, one of which would give state religion status to the Georgian Orthodox Church. In that way, Targamadze would then have plenty of political support -- and cover -- for entering Parliament in September. Shashkin reported that TBILISI 00000963 002 OF 003 Targamadze appears to be the only leader among all the opposition currently communicating with the government, although how and to what extent is unclear. ¶4. (C) Shashkin said Konstantine Gamsakhurdia, a member of the Joint Opposition and leader of the Freedom Party, will leave the Joint Opposition and enter Parliament. This contradicts published statements by Gamsakhurdia that he will not do so. Shashkin claimed that Targamadze consulted with Gamsakhurdia and proposed he take the expected Vice-Speaker position, which would leave Targamadze positioned to be Minority Leader. (Comment: Post has encouraged the government to pursue reforms that would give the parliamentary minority real influence on committees, the budget, and Parliamentary delegations. Targamadze seems to be acutely aware of the possibilities of engagement, should the government uphold its end of any deal. End comment.) The Boycott and Protests -------------- ¶5. (C) Despite their backroom search for a way out of the current predicament, David Gamkrelidze and Levan Gachechiladze of the Joint Opposition have persisted in their public calls for a boycott of the new Parliament and picketing of the Parliament building on Rustaveli Avenue on June 10, blocking MPs from entering and taking their seats. Shashkin said that the government is ready for the planned protests on June 10 and willing to use force if necessary, confirming clear public statements by President Saakashvili, National Security Council chief Alexandre Lomaia and Minister of Internal Affairs Vano Merabishvili. Shashkin said the government will post special riot forces inside the Parliament, and block the two side streets on either side of the building with additional forces. Both of these streets run uphill, which will give the police the higher ground and make it more difficult for the protesters to push up the streets into the building. Protesters will be allowed to congregate in front of the building. The government reportedly has no plans to confront the protesters, and will only push back if attacked. Violent demonstrators will be arrested. Shashkin opined that the potential for conflict is real, but the government is going to lengths to avoid it. Shaskin believes Gamkrelidze and Gachechiladze are the only two opposition figures who are pushing hard for confrontation. He thinks Gamkrelidze may be suffering from stress. Republicans Sit This One Out -------------- ¶6. (C) On June 3, the Chairman of the Republican Party David Usupashvili held a press conference and published an article in local daily, Rezonansi. He said that picketing Parliament would be useless and alleged it would only play into the government's hands, giving it a legal pretext to arrest the opposition and then conduct "wide-scale repression" of the opposition's supporters while labeling them "rebels." Consequently, Usupashvili said the Republicans will not take part in any protests on June 10. Rather, he charged that the opposition "should acknowledge its temporary defeat and prepare for the next stage in the struggle against the authorities' violence and fraud." Usupashvili claimed that his party has a concrete action plan and will release details soon. (Note: Shashkin said the Republicans' ran a poor campaign. Despite being smart, respectable, and patriotic, Shashkin said, the Republicans relied only on IRI's favorability ratings of their individual leaders, rather than the more informative ballot tests. Shashkin said people like the Republicans, but don't want to buy their particular brand of politics, cutting into their vote total. End note.) Burjanadze's Return to Politics? -------------- ¶7. (C) Shashkin also related a recent conversation with outgoing Speaker of Parliament Nino Burjanadze. He said Burjanadze told him she will announce a new political foundation on June 9, called The Georgian Fund for Democracy. She hope to make the foundation a serious think tank, which will serve as a springboard for her to create a political party. Initial plans call for the foundation to focus on rule of law, ongoing reforms, and possibly social issues (i.e. healthcare). Burjanadze is reportedly trying to raise funds in the U.S. and Europe, and appeared interested in USG assistance. She claimed her plans for the future received much attention in Washington, and takes this to mean she should stay in politics and can expect support. Shashkin said one challenge Burjanadze faces is the perception she is not close enough to the Georgian people. Consequently, IRI TBILISI 00000963 003 OF 003 will conduct focus groups for Burjanadze on June 5 and 6, in order to hone her message for the announcement. ¶8. (C) Shashkin believes Burjanadze has Presidential aspirations for the 2013 election. Therefore, she will not accept a position in government now, as anything would be of less stature than Speaker of Parliament (the second-highest position in government). As the second most popular politician in the country now, Shashkin said she must be careful to not squander this support. Burjanadze discussed with Shashkin her recent purchase (per a Presidential decree and for the symbolic price of One Georgian Lari, or $0.68 USD) of the government-owned house where she lived as Speaker and Acting President. The purchase is legal, and Burjanadze pointed to similar precedents in Poland and Lithuania, as well as in Georgia with former President Shevardnadze (who has never left the house he lived in as President). Consequently, Burjanadze intends to keep the house and dismiss criticism, claiming ongoing security concerns require her to stay put. Shashkin told Burjanadze the purchase will still look bad and be held against her. He suggested she could pay more for the property, but apparently Burjanadze rejected the idea. The topic will be raised at the focus groups, as Shashkin believes that Burjanadze ought to change her mind. ¶9. (C) Shashkin said that Burjanadze has no supporters in Parliament right now. However, he believes that within 1-2 years, there will be at least 10 by-elections (due to MPs leaving Parliament for cabinet posts or other reasons) that will free enough seats for Burjanadze to create a faction. The most important question is how the Government and UNM hard-liners will respond to Burjanadze,s presidential ambitions, Shashkin said. Burjanadze told him Saakashvili supports her goals for her foundation. However, he said Saakashvili must also be aware of Burjanadze's desire to be President. Shashkin noted that Irakli Okruashvili (exiled former Minister of Defense) never ran into problems with the administration over creating his own political party until his popularity was seen to have reached a threatening level. Should the government attack Burjanadze, Shashkin fears the fallout could be just as damaging to the country as that which followed Okruashvili's confrontation with the government in September 2007. TEFFT