OPPOSITION LEADERS: ANGRY, CONFUSED, UNDER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 000925 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM GG SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADERS: ANGRY, CONFUSED, UNDER PRESSURE, NOT ANTI-U.S. REF: TBILISI 881 Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: From May 27 through May 30, opposition leaders of the Christian-Democratic Movement (CDM), Republicans, and the New Rightists met the Ambassador to explain their positions and distance themselves from Joint Opposition leader Levan Gachechiladze's anti-U.S. comments at the May 26 opposition protest (reftel). All three claimed the May 21 elections were falsified, and said they had to attend the rally against the election results and ruling United National Movement (UNM). All three alleged they are under pressure to boycott Parliament. Targamadze and Usupashvili dismissed the Joint Opposition's calls for an alternative Parliament as unworkable. The two men thought future elections could provide political cover for the opposition to join Parliament. Both also looked for an international figure to be party to any potential agreement with the government. The New Rightists' David Gamkrelidze suggested the unlikely step that government annul enough seats from the elections to prevent a constitutional majority for the UNM. The Ambassador acknowledged the frustration of the opposition with the election result, but urged them to negotiate with the government in order to get concessions that would give them real power in Parliament. He said any violence by the opposition would end badly for Georgia and would not be supported by the international community. End Summary. Opposition Leaders Not Anti-U.S., Had to Protest out of Solidarity -------------- ¶2. (C) On May 27, newly-elected leader of the Christian-Democratic Movement (CDM),Giorgi Targamadze, called on the Ambassador. Targamadze stressed that he does not share the anti-U.S. and anti-Western views Gachechiladze expounded on May 26 (reftel). Targamadze claimed the CDM had to show solidarity with the opposition against the government's "falsified elections" at the rally. But, he said, he did not and will not join in anti-U.S. rhetoric. Usupashvili agreed on May 29 that it is in neither his, nor his party's interest, to drive a wedge between Georgia and the West. Still, he claimed, after their defeat in the polls (the Republicans failed to meet the 5 percent threshold to enter the new Parliament),the Republicans now face the dilemma of either moving closer to the Joint Opposition, or being forced out of politics completely. Therefore, they also joined the protest but disdained the anti-Western statements. On May 30, New Rightists leader David Gamkrelidze met with the Ambassador and also said Gachechiladze's statements referring to the U.S. as "Georgia's enemies" were "stupid." Believe the Elections were Falsified, But Look Ahead -------------- ¶3. (C) All three leaders said they believe that there was widespread fraud during the May 21 elections. All three claimed this was done by adding absent voters to the voters' list, issuing fake IDs, and having government sympathizers vote multiple times. Targamadze believed the real result for the winning National Movement was only 45-50 percent, rather than the official result of 59 percent. Usupashvili alleged that the UNM had utilized "the most criminals ever" in organizing the election. Gamkrelidze suggested a "real percentage for the UNM was 35-40 percent. No leader presented any evidence for their arguments. Dismissing his disappointment, and lack of surprise at the elections' result, Usupashvili said the important thing now is to find a way ahead. Voicing concern for decentralization of local government and the erosion of civil society, Usupashvili claimed this greater majority UNM now possesses in Parliament (80 percent of the seats) will make democratic development in Georgia even more difficult. He said such a lop-sided situation in the Parliament would be untenable for four years. Gamkrelidze agreed, and all three leaders were trying to determine a course of action. Under Pressure to Join Boycott -------------- ¶4. (C) Targamadze said the CDM is under intense pressure to join the opposition's boycott, which he believes is an unrealistic proposition. Conversely, he claimed he cannot talk with the Government, lest he be seen as "Saakashvili's puppet" and lose all credibility as an opposition figure. Targamadze claimed "some forces" are directing this anti-U.S. TBILISI 00000925 002 OF 003 sentiment in the Joint Opposition (to which the CDM is not a party). He does not know whether these forces are malevolent or ignorant, but either way his party is going its "own direction." Still press reports are swirling as to whether or not the CDM will join the boycott, with no decision evident. (Comment: It was clear that Targamadze realizes such a boycott would likely be ineffective. End comment.) Usupashvili agreed that a boycott is unlikely to work, but said the space his party can exist in continues to shrink. He said Republican leaders believe they must join in the boycott and block Parliament, or risk the very existence of their party. Gamkrelidze has come this far with the Joint Opposition, and has already joined in public calls for the boycott and blocking Parliament. Still, he too appeared dubious about its effectiveness, and said the protesters are likely to be arrested if they interfere with Parliament's first scheduled session on June 10. Alternative Parliament, New Elections? -------------- ¶5. (C) Targamadze said the other opposition leaders are bluffing about creating an alternative Parliament, but claimed they have not determined another course of action. Usupashvili said an alternative Parliament is a "crazy idea." Even Gamkrelidze indicated that it is an unrealistic solution. Furthermore, he claimed he did not want the country to revisit the 2003 Rose Revolution again. Consequently, it appeared that all three are searching for a way out of the current impasse, and a solution with which they could perhaps enter Parliament, or forge a new Parliament. Targamadze suggested perhaps the CDM could join Parliament under the aegis of creating a new, compromise election code and working toward "new elections" in the future. Usupashvili suggested creating new, elected positions on a local, regional basis this fall, which would bring more representation to the people and counter "ongoing consolidation of the federal government." Gamkrelidze made the unlikely suggestion that government annul enough electoral districts (approximately 22 of 75) in the election results that the UNM would not receive a constitutional majority. A Minority Status in Parliament? -------------- ¶6. (C) The Ambassador acknowledged the frustration of the opposition's electoral defeat, but urged them to negotiate with the government in order to get concessions that would give them real power in Parliament. He asked each one of the leaders if they could join Parliament with an official minority status. He noted that President Saakashvili had made repeated public statements offering cooperation to the opposition, and that key government figures, including incoming Speaker of Parliament Bakradze and Saakashvili insider Giga Bokeria, had indicated the government was willing to offer the opposition some concessions that would guarantee it power in the new Parliament. These include a lower numerical threshold for creation of an opposition faction, a Deputy Speaker position for an opposition politician, and deputy chairmanship positions on committees. The three responded independently that such an option could be workable, but none expressed confidence in Saakashvili keeping his word. The Ambassador agreed that both sides would have to fulfill their obligations under any agreement. Furthermore, such agreement may require both sides to make public, conciliatory steps. No Violence to be Allowed -------------- ¶7. (C) Regardless, the Ambassador assessed that Saakashvili is unlikely to cede anything to the opposition unless it is accompanied by less confrontation. He said violence by the opposition would likely end only in arrest. It was a political dead end. Minister of Internal Affairs Vano Merabishvili had said the GOG will legitimately arrest any protesters who attempt to block Parliament when the new session meets on June 10. Should violence occur and opposition members be arrested in trying to block Parliament, the Ambassador said the opposition should not appeal for American and European intervention to get out of a box they had created for themselves. He urged the leaders instead to move the fight from the streets into the Parliament, noting that violence would not be good for anyone in Georgia. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The USAID-funded National Democratic Institute (NDI) TBILISI 00000925 003 OF 003 advised Post on June 2 that two parties had approached them to discuss options on entering Parliament. Separately, Usupashvili and Gamkrelidze both said they thought any agreement with the government must happen before June 9. Gamkrelidze told the Ambassador that he could reach out to and discuss possibilities with incoming Speaker Davit Bakradze and Deputy Speaker Mikheil Machavariani through their Parliamentary offices. The Ambassador has spoken with Bakradze and Deputy Foreign Minister Bokeria, urging them to be magnanimous in victory, to reach out to the opposition, bring them into Parliament, and allow them to save face. TEFFT