PRE-ELECTION TRIP TO KUTAISI

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TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM GG
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION TRIP TO KUTAISI


1. (SBU) Summary. On May 1 and 2 Emboff visited Kutaisi,
Georgia's second largest city to gauge the pre-election mood
in the lead-up to the May 21 Parliamentary elections.
Kutaisi is the capitol of Imereti, and remains a pocket of
persistent unemployment, with shuttered automobile factories
that closed after independence remaining a potent and very
visible symbol of economic stagnation. While the surrounding
region supported the President, the city was an opposition
stronghold in the January 5 Presidential election. This
election campaign seemed to have not yet begun in earnest.
At the time, only the United National Movement (UNM) seemed
to be actively campaigning in Kutaisi. While most parties
had offices in Kutaisi and all are putting up candidates for
the majoritarian seat representing Kutaisi, some have
nominated residents of Tbilisi for the seat, and a number of
the parties were not active - and in fact were not even
present in the city. Though the UNM candidate is a
well-known, former Governor from the Shevardnadze period, he
is somewhat controversial. Though the opposition would be
expected to run well in Kutaisi, they seem poised to
underperform. End Summary.

The District Election Commission Prepares
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2. (SBU) The opposition and some international observers were
critical of some elements of the operation of the District
Election Commission (DEC) during the January election. To
address these criticisms, the Government made changes in the
setup of the DEC. Under the new regulations, opposition
parties will have representation at both the precinct (PEC)
and district level and the process of reporting the results
and making appeals has been improved. Avtandil Osepaishvili,
the new Head of the Kutaisi DEC is widely respected by all of
the parties that met with us and is viewed as "an honest
man." He emphasized that the greatest challenge facing the
DEC is gaining the trust of the voters in the electoral
process. He stated that opening up the process to more party
observers has improved the atmosphere, as have improvements
in the voters' list. His office still faces serious
difficulties in training all of the precinct workers before
the election, though they are trying to use many of the same
poll workers. He acknowledges that some problems remain in
the voters' list, but they have made progress. He stated
that even though the public has been able to check and update
their registration online and by text message, there has been
little activity. Ultimately, because the general public is
not good about reporting deaths or changes in residence it
falls on the government to try and track down such changes.
This is a very difficult task in such a short period of time.
He is trying to be open to the press and they have actively
publicized the process for making complaints about
irregularities and the process for reporting voters' list
changes. In general, he observed that the campaign in
Kutaisi was "quite passive." Opposition parties complained
not about the DEC chair, but about some PEC chairs, and about
persistent problems with the voters' list. One local
independent newspaper (Post Scriptum) plans to quiz PEC
workers about updates in the voting law, to prove that some
inept PEC members remain on the job.

Opposition Claims Much Abuse, Documents Little
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3. (SBU) Emboff met with members of the United National
Council (UNC) of Opposition and the Traditionalist Party
blocs at their respective Kutaisi headquarters. In these
meetings the general tone was quite rancorous, with LES staff
even expressing real discomfort at the aggressiveness. The
New Rights Party, which ran independently in January, is now
running in a bloc with the UNC, and its representative alone
seemed willing to discuss charges and provide specific
examples, as well as even speculating on the political future
of Georgia. Among the most serious charges that were made,
were claims that opposition supporters had drugs planted on
them by the police, and that supporters were intimidated by
ten policemen who photographed an opposition rally. The
government was accused of running a systematic campaign of
terror against the opposition, of intimidating businessmen to
keep them from supporting opposition candidates, and even of
being fascists who used their party flag like the Nazis did
in World War II. In most of these cases, when pressed for
examples of terror, or for specifics, the charges largely
evaporated. Thus, the charges of drug planting and
intimidating businessmen were events that occurred in
November of last year. When Emboff asked for details
regarding these businessmen, he was told that they said in
November that they would support the campaign, but now they
would not even return a phone call to the Traditionalist
candidate. The UNC accused the government of misuse of

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administrative resources and cited as an example the
Governor's statement on television that one factory may be
reopened in a few months with new investors and a program for
temporary jobs for unemployed residents. The job program,
however, is a yearly program that has been carried out for
several years and was planned last fall. In a case of
claimed voter intimidation an opposition activist was told
that she may cause problems for her son (who is a soldier),
but the person who warned her, was a neighbor and not a
government supporter. They claimed that they are prevented
from mounting an active campaign because their PR manager is
"afraid" to work full time for their party - but there is no
evidence of any intimidation in this case. In the sole
verifiable case ten policeman photographed the people who
attended a UNC rally on April 30 in downtown Kutaisi. No one
spoke to the police, and no one was threatened in any way -
but this could be seen as a form of intimidation. When
challenged about the use of the term "terror" the UNC
representative observed that perhaps the word has a stronger
meaning in the west, but they will continue to refer to this
as a campaign of terror. Opposition candidates were
frustrated that "everyone is forgetting the crisis in
November," but did not seem to have any active plans to
engage the general public.

The Media: "People Just Want the Campaign to End"
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4. (SBU) During visits to Post Scriptum (an independent
newspaper) and (independent) Mega Television Emboff discussed
the political campaign in Kutaisi and the general state of
the media, including local government pressure on the media.
They stated that the campaign has really not begun in Kutaisi
and that the media has to track down the opposition to find
out about their planned activities. Post Scriptum feels that
they could become a regional newspaper with investment, and
that by receiving grants from the U.S. Embassy and USAID, as
well as other western organizations, they have been able to
remain independent. In their point of view advertising is
not fully developed and companies are both unaware of the
benefits of advertising and afraid to support an independent
newspaper that is willing to criticize the Government. Post
Scriptum was critical of Mamuka Mghvdeladze, the UNM
candidate for the majoritarian seat in Kutaisi. According to
them Mghvdeladze was quite corrupt during the Shevardnadze
period and has real skeletons in his closet. Kutaisi was the
center of Nino Burjanadze's political support, so the media
as well as the UNC representative speculated that her recent
pull out from the election would have a continuing effect on
politics in Kutaisi, and speculated on her political future.
According to the media, the UNM is now relatively inactive in
Kutaisi, except for the youth branch of the party, because of
shake-ups at the national level. The UNC representative even
went as far as speculating on a possible Gamkrelidze (New
Rights) move to join a future coalition if Burjanadze started
a new centrist party. Mega TV was focused on Rioni TV, their
only local competitor, who they accuse of having support from
Burjanadze's local people, and who they claim receives
regular financial support form the local government.


5. (SBU) Comment: While it is hard to forecast if the
election campaign will heat up in Kutaisi, it seems at this
point as if even in a venue that heavily favors the
opposition they seem to have little interest or financial
base in running a serious campaign. While there are charges
of malfeasance, which at times border on the hysterical, one
is more struck by the opposition's passivity and missed
opportunities than by the government's activity. End Comment.
TEFFT