GEORGIA PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION UPDATE MAY 1

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 000726 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION UPDATE MAY 1 REF: TBILISI 707 Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On April 30, the United National Movement's (UNM) pollster told the Ambassador that the UNM is polling around 57 percent among likely voters in the May 21 election. This will likely result in another UNM constitutional majority. He expects at least three other opposition parties to meet the 5 percent party list threshold. Opposition leader Giorgi Targamadze briefed the Ambassador on his new party's platform on April 24. ODIHR released their first Interim Report on the elections April 30. The report said the legal framework for the elections is adequate, but must be fully implemented. Saakashvili insider Giga Bokeria joined the government Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) on elections (reftel) on April 29. The Georgian Young Lawyer's Association (GYLA) released an interim report on the misuse of administrative resources on April 30. Recently denied a political broadcasting license, Maestro TV (a cable TV company linked to the Joint Opposition) is simulcasting audio via radio to match their political TV shows. On April 30, Joint Opposition leader Salome Zourabichvili criticized the international community for allegedly "not paying more attention to the election." EU and ODIHR Ambassadors countered that the international community can, and is, paying close attention to both Georgia's election and ongoing tension with Russia. End Summary. Pollster: UNM Expects to Win Majority -------------- ¶2. (C) On April 30, the Ambassador met with political consultants Jeremy Rosner and Sam Patten, of Greenberg Associates, the American political consulting company hired by the ruling National Movement party. Rosner said the UNM will have new numbers on May 8, which will be the first results following Nino Burjanadze,s April 21 decision to not run. Patten said their April 20 numbers show that the overall ballot position has been consistent for two months. According to this most recent ballot test: -- The UNM is at approximately 44 percent for both party list and majoritarian seats among the overall population, -- The United National Council of Opposition (UNC) has gone from highs in the 20,s to 12 percent now, -- Targamadze,s Christian-Democrats are at approximately 10 percent, -- The Labor Party has remained at around 6 percent, -- The Republicans are right on the threshold to enter Parliament, or slightly less, than 5 percent. Rosner said after allocating undecided voters likely to vote, the polls indicate about 57 percent support for the UNM, which will likely equate to another constitutional majority in Parliament. He added that their research shows jobs are people's foremost concern, and territorial integrity and social benefits alternate in second place. According to Rosner, the UNC and other opposition have failed to articulate a message, which has resulted in sinking numbers. The pollster said the UNM's biggest challenge is to ensure their expected victory is accepted as politically legitimate, both by the Georgian people and the international community. (Comment: Rosner accurately predicted the results of the January 5 presidential election. End comment.) Christian-Democrats Looking to Future -------------- ¶3. (C) On April 24, the Ambassador met with Giorgi Targamadze, a former MP (from Aslan Abashidze's party) and Imedi TV anchor, the head of the new Christian-Democratic Movement (CDM) party. Targamadze's platform includes concrete proposals that prioritize freedom of the media, reforming Parliament's Chamber of Control (thus strengthening the body's budgetary oversight),and restructuring the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Targamadze stressed that his party is focused on trying to get into Parliament and capture a few majoritarian seats. Once in Parliament, he hopes to build the party for the future, in the mold of existing Christian-Democratic parties in Europe. ODIHR: CEC's Plan Adequate, Must be Implemented -------------- -- ¶4. (U) On April 30, ODIHR released their first Interim Report on the elections. The report said that the legal framework for the elections is conducive to democratic elections, but must be implemented accordingly. The report notes ODIHR's concern that Georgia's Constitution and Unified Election Code were both amended as late as March, and without full TBILISI 00000726 002 OF 003 consensus. The report also criticizes the disparity in the size of the single-mandate majoritarian districts, which represent as few as 6,000 voters and as many as 150,000, saying this "undermines the equality of the vote." Intimidation problems observed in the January election are occurring again, but fewer, according to most NGOs. The report notes the polarized political environment, and the opposition's "deep mistrust in the election administration," which represents a continuing challenge to the CEC. On April 29, ODIHR Head Ambassador Boris Frlec told an OSCE Ambassador's Working Group "there is still the hope that the elections will be better than those in January." Other areas of concern the ODIHR report notes include: under-representation of opposition representatives precinct election commission managerial positions, shortened deadlines for filing complaints, and fewer restrictions on political officials and use of administrative resources during campaigning. (Note: ODIHR's first Interim Report can be found at: http://www.osce.org/odihr-elections/ End note.) IATF Explains Vouchers, Regional Contacts -------------- ¶5. (U) Giga Bokeria, former MP and now Deputy Foreign Minister, joined the governmental Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) on elections (reftel). At a meeting on April 29, the IATF detailed two government social programs and distributed a list of regional contacts to act on the IATF's behalf. The first voucher program was scheduled to end by March 31 and entailed 20 liters of free diesel to Georgia's farmers. The second entails a contract-based collection of personal data for the Ministry of Health. This information is used to enroll vulnerable families into a national insurance program. GYLA praised the regional contacts initiative, but pointed out that they have witnessed diesel vouchers being distributed at UNM offices in Kakheti as late as April 11. Bokeria dismissed the comments as hearsay, and said it's a moot point, as the diesel voucher program is now completed. GYLA Cites Misuse of Administrative Resources -------------- ¶6. (U) GYLA released their first interim report on the misuse of administrative resources on April 30 (emailed to EUR/CARC). Many of the cases they cite appear tangential, and may easily be rebuffed as election campaign promises and appearances. However, due to vague election code language, it is unclear whether the violations are actually contrary to the law. The diesel voucher case above is one of their more compelling observed violations, if true. The report focuses on the following four reported trends: -- Active participation by public officials in the pre-election campaign. -- Citizen subordination by donation of material goods and promises (including gifts ranging from party favors up to a bus). -- Blurring the division between state and political party activity. -- Failure of the local media to provide information to district election commissions per CEC requirements. Maestro TV Works Around License Denial -------------- ¶7. (U) In early April, the Georgian National Communications Commission (GNCC) denied a license to Maestro TV to broadcast political programming. The small, cable entertainment channel (broadcasting music videos in Tbilisi, Rustavi, Telavi, and Gori) is linked to the opposition, as UNC leader Levan Gachechiladze's brother, Giorgi, is a reported partner in the company. Maestro had begun airing political programs in violation of their license prior to the decision. A GNCC decision is pending on Maestro's request to modify their existing license. To circumvent the previous GNCC ruling, and pending the decision on modification, the company is now airing political shows and news with music overlaid, and simulcasting the programs' audio via radio. Joint Opposition Briefs Diplomatic Corps, Criticizes International Community and U.S. -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Joint Opposition (the UNC and New Rightists) leaders Salome Zourabichvili and Kakha Kukava met with the diplomatic corps in an April 30 meeting. Zourabichvili criticized the international community and the U.S. for allegedly not paying more attention to the election. (Note: We find these "briefings" by the opposition are more staged for the cameras than for any meaningful dialogue with the international community. Ambassador Tefft had a previous commitment and TBILISI 00000726 003 OF 003 could not attend. End note.) She said the international community was focusing only on the situation regarding Abkhazia and increased tension with Russia. Zourabichvili then implied that this tension with Russia -- which she claimed is always present before elections -- was in the GOG's interest as it would increase UNM support in the election. She noted that the government had not upheld the agreements the UNC had reached with Nino Burjanadze following the January election. ¶9. (SBU) Zourabichvili and Kukava then detailed several issues the Joint Opposition deems necessary for free and fair elections. These include: dismissal of the CEC Chairman, correcting the voters' list to reflect Georgians living abroad, ending intimidation against opposition candidates, placing video cameras in historically-problematic regions, and ceasing pressure on opposition CEC members. Kukava said that all the violations they have presented to the CEC and/or courts have been dismissed. EC Ambassador Per Eklund countered Zourabichvili's comments as "unfair." He noted that the EU and U.S. have given a great deal of assistance toward fair elections, and that the international community is indeed following both events closely. He said that he had hoped to hear "some of the Joint Opposition's platform, and not just their complaints." In the end, Eklund said, fair elections are the government's responsibility and not the international community's. ODIHR Ambassador Boris Frlec added that ODIHR's sizable contingent is entirely focused only on the elections. He pointed out that the opposition must work through formal channels, and that the Joint Opposition's complaints should be taken -- in writing -- to the IATF. TEFFT