STATE MINISTER YAKOBASHVILI ON THE ABKHAZIA CRISIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L TBILISI 000724 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA & EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS GG SUBJECT: STATE MINISTER YAKOBASHVILI ON THE ABKHAZIA CRISIS Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT FOR REASONS 1.4 (b & d) ¶1. (C) State Minister for Reintegration Temuri Yakobashvili summarized his view of the situation in Abkhazia in a meeting with DCM on May 1, 2008, before departing on a tour of European capitals to build support for the Georgian peace initiative and discuss ideas for implementing it. Yakobashvili sees three red lines that would lead to a Georgian military response: an attack on Georgian forces in the Upper Kodori Gorge, an attack on the ethnic Georgian population in Gali, or a significant military build-up. He didn,t define how much of a military build-up in Abkhazia would initiate a Georgian response. ¶2. (C) Yakobashvili elaborated a well considered strategic view of the current dangerous situation. He said 2008 is an especially dangerous year for Georgia and the government,s goal should be to survive this year without being drawn into conflict with Russia, which would certainly devastate Georgia. He sees the most dangerous times for Georgia as now until the May 7 transfer of power in Moscow, during the May 21 parliamentary elections in Georgia, and during the lead up to the December NATO ministerial. In his view, Georgia must take a longer view, hoping that the Russian actions in Abkhazia could be rolled back later and that Medvedev might be a more constructive Russian leader. Yakobashvili quipped that this is his &Let Medvedev Win a Nobel Prize for Solving the Conflicts Plan.8 ¶3. (C) Yakobashvili said that Georgia should take advantage of the mounting international diplomatic support for Georgia by pressing ahead with its peace initiative. He thinks the immediate objective should be to build international diplomatic and financial support for implementing the Georgian proposal for a free trade zone in Ochamchire-Gali. That is the chief purpose for his European tour, which will take him to Brussels, London, Paris, Geneva, Vienna, and Berlin during the next two weeks. He also hopes to visit Moscow and Washington before the May 21 elections. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: Yakobashvili is a realist and a moderate who has been consistently advocating at the Georgian Security Council meetings against being drawn into a conflict. Although admitting that he isn,t sure whether Russia,s immediate objective is to provoke an Abkhaz war or to solidify its hold on Abkhazia before Putin leaves office, he worries that the Russian government elements currently making the decisions on Abkhazia see an opportunity to solve the Georgia problem once and for all. As he sees it, the modern weapons both sides now have would all but wipe out the Abkhaz and Georgian populations in Abkhazia, leaving Russia in charge of a barren region. Russian instigation of a rebellion in Tbilisi would take down a weakened Saakashvili government and leave Moscow calling the shots. Yakobashvili said that given current Russian political conditions and the public mood, Moscow would do anything to ensure a victory in Abkhazia, including bombing Tbilisi. TEFFT