GEORGIA PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TBILISI 000666

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS UPDATE

REF: TBILISI 545

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) On April 8, the Central Election Commission (CEC)
kicked off Georgia's parliamentary elections and presented
their election strategy to the international community.
OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights'
(ODIHR) election observation mission (EOM) began operations
on April 9. The EOM is headed by former Slovenian Foreign
Minister and Ambassador, Boris Frlec. Twenty-eight long-term
observers have already arrived, and 350 short-term observers
will come for the May 21 election. The USAID-funded National
Democratic Institute (NDI) presented a campaign code of
conduct signed by nine political parties on April 11. More
good news came on April 16, when the CEC released an
agreement with four local watchdog NGOs regarding a common
interpretation of the election code on the misuse of
administrative resources. Unfortunately, some United
National Council of Opposition (UNC) members have already
called for protests after the election. Conversely, the
ruling United National Movement (UNM) has begun campaigning
in earnest with issue-based ads. However, accusations of
questionable election tactics have also arisen. Georgia's
Public Defender accused the CEC Chairman of sanctioning fraud
in the January presidential election (based on video footage)
and demanded his resignation. The government's Inter-Agency
Task Force (IATF) on free and fair elections (reftel) issued
a CEC rebuttal of the charges, claiming the Public Defender
erred in his analysis by not considering special precincts'
results. The dispute has become increasingly public and
personal. On April 10, Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mikheil
Machavariani told Poloff that he expects the UNM to win 85 of
150 total seats on May 21, which is less than a 2/3
constitutional majority as they currently have. Finally,
from April 22-24, Scotland Yard, the FBI, and Assistant
United States Attorneys will train Georgian prosecutors on
how to prosecute financial infractions by political
campaigns. End summary.

CEC - Relocated and Ready
--------------


2. (U) The CEC kicked off Georgia's parliamentary elections
and presented their election strategy to the international
community on April 8. The CEC relocated to a new facility
for the May 21 election. The new building houses 13 CEC
commissioners, an increased staff, better space for election
administration operations, and a new spokesman, Zurab
Katchkatchishvili. Katchkatchishvili, who spent significant
time at the Council of Europe, brings a new, experienced
public face to the CEC. The ambitious strategy is based on
"lessons learned" from previous elections. It
comprehensively incorporates reforms, enhances emphasis on
transparency and professionalism, and includes a public
awareness campaign -- which has already begun. The CEC was
reorganized into seven departments to enact the strategy and
conduct the election. These departments include: Protocol
and Registration, Legal Affairs, Public and International
Relations, Organizational Affairs, Financial and Economic
Issues, Human Resources, and IT. The primary objective of
the new strategy is ensuring voters' rights.

ODIHR Observers Come Back
--------------


3. (SBU) The GOG again invited an ODIHR election observation
mission (EOM) for the May 21 election. The EOM is headed by
former Slovenian Foreign Minister and Ambassador, Boris Frlec
(Fuhr-litz). Stefan Krause, the Deputy head of ODIHR's
January 5 EOM, is reprising this same role again. The EOM
began functioning as of April 10. The team will include 28
long-term observers, who will stay through any required
runoffs in June (4-5 of the 28 observers were present during
the January election). ODIHR has requested, and Krause
anticipates, 350 short-term observers. ODIHR has requested
they stay an extra day, in order to observe the tabulation
and reporting process more thoroughly than on January 5. In
addition, ODIHR will field observation teams at most of the
District Election Commissions. Frlec stressed to an OSCE
Ambassador's Working Group on April 15 that his EOM is not
interested in results of the election, but only the process.
Frlec appears well aware of the Georgian campaign
environment, and seemed firmly intent on providing
comprehensive and unbiased reports. He expressed concern
about the negative commentary already emanating from some
parties and asked the ambassadors to encourage better
dialogue from all sides. Still, said Frlec, the Georgians

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have been given recommendations and resources, now "it's
their show" to ensure free elections. ODIHR's first interim
report will be issued April 30; the next will follow May 14.

Parties Sign on to NDI's Code of Conduct
--------------


4. (U) In a move to improve the responsibility of political
parties' dialogue, the USAID-funded NDI presented a campaign
Code of Conduct signed by nine political parties in an April
11 press conference. The code is a voluntary agreement
between NDI and the signatory parties. It sets standards for
the conduct of party leaders, candidates, activists, and
election administration representatives (commission members)
during the 2008 parliamentary election campaign. The ruling
UNM has signed the code, as have the notable opposition
parties the Christian-Democratic Movement, the Republicans,
the Conservative Party, the Industrialists, and the Labor
Party. Because the code is for political parties, it has
been signed by some members of the UNC but not the UNC
election bloc itself. David Gamkrelidze's New Rightists
party (a member of only the election bloc, not the UNC) has
not signed NDI's Code of Conduct. Neither has Salome
Zourabichvili's Georgia's Way, nor Koba Davitashvili's
People's Party.

CEC, NGOs Agree on Guidelines,
Election Code Interpretation
--------------


5. (C) Additional positive news came with the CEC's April 16
release of its agreement on a memorandum with four local
watchdog NGOs regarding a common interpretation of the
election code on the misuse of administrative resources. The
NGOs include Georgian Young Lawyers Association (GYLA),
Transparency International of Georgia (TI),the International
Society for Fair Elections and Democracy (ISFED),and New
Generation New Initiative (nGnI). The memorandum states that
"in the course of administration of administrative and court
cases we (the CEC and NGOs) will be guided by the
explanations indicated in the memorandum." Agreed-upon
interpretations include definitions of "use/misuse of
administrative resources" (a major complaint in the January
election),permissible campaign activities of public
officials/servants, and that final protocols may be appealed
in a court within in "a one calendar day period upon its
issuance." In a meeting with the Ambassador on April 11,
Parliamentarian Giga Bokeria said the government had agreed
on a moratorium on all social voucher programs during the
campaign -- a point of contention from the January 5
presidential election.

UNC Threatens Protests, UNM Campaigns
Amid Mutual Allegations
--------------


6. (U) Less positive news came from some UNC opposition
leaders. Koba Davitashvili has already called for protests
beginning May 22. Levan Gachechiladze said that the country
is ruled by "serious terrorists, and everyone should spare no
effort to get rid of Saakashvili's bloody regime." The UNC's
recent rhetoric indicates they are focusing on making good on
these threats to topple the Saakashvili administration,
rather than trying to win seats in the election. The UNC --
most prominent among the opposition voices -- has barely
addressed campaign issues. Shalva Natelashvili's Labor Party
has lambasted not only Saakashvili, but also the Europeans,
the U.S., and the other opposition. Not all the opposition
has resorted to threats. The Republicans have stressed their
moderate credentials and nominated multiple majoritarian
candidates. Giorgi Targamadze's Christian-Democratic
Movement has been actively establishing regional offices and
creating a campaign platform. Former Defense Minister Irakli
Okruashvili remains in Paris, where his hearing for political
asylum was post-poned again until June 11. His party remains
a member of the UNC.


7. (SBU) Conversely, the UNM has begun campaigning in
earnest. Their first TV ads hit the air on April 10,
carrying the UNM's primary message of economic assistance to
the Georgian people. Saakashvili admonished the UNC on April
11, saying that talk of more unrest will only further scare
international investment away from Georgia. However,
accusations of questionable election tactics have also
arisen. ISFED presented members of the OSCE Technical
Working Group on April 16 with a form a family member
received requesting comprehensive voter information, personal
identification numbers of the entire family, household
income, neighbor referrals, and voting intentions. These
"sociological surveys" were being conducted by "social
workers" bearing no identification and only implying official

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status. ISFED claimed that the woman with the form said she
was being paid by the UNM to collect the information. TI
said they have received similar reports. Poloff spoke with
the UNM's International Representative, Irakli Kavtaradze on
April 18. Kavtaradze said the UNM is not collecting voter
information in their door-to-door campaign. He said that he
believed the surveys in question were being conducted by the
Ministry of Health to determine households living in poverty.
(Note: Post has been unable to confirm this yet. End
note.) GYLA added that UNM officials were distributing
government vouchers for free diesel fuel in Senaki a few
weeks earlier (although this was before the moratorium on
social program vouchers was agreed).

PDO Slams CEC Chair, CEC Rebuts
--------------


8. (SBU) On April 4, Georgia's Public Defender, Sozar Subari,
accused CEC Chairman Levan Tarkhnishvili of fraud in the
January election and demanded his resignation, based on video
footage from 12 precincts. Subari claimed the CEC had
actively obstructed his office access to January 5 video
footage for two months, although the CEC claims the footage
was always available for anyone to come to the CEC and view
it. On April 11, Prime Minister Nino Burjanadze publicly
stated that the election footage is available for all to view
at the CEC's offices. Subari again charged on April 15 that
the CEC blocked his access to any additional footage, other
than the 12 records he had finally received on April 2.
Later that day the IATF (reftel) issued a CEC rebuttal of
Subari's charges, claiming the Public Defender greatly erred
in his analysis of vote padding by not considering special
precincts' results (whose results were counted by a regular
precinct) or mobile ballot boxes for homebound voters. The
IATF and CEC confirmed three potential violations in the
footage, and referred those cases to the Prosecutor General's
office. (Comment: The situation is now personally polarized
between the two agency heads, and the big loser is public
confidence in both institutions. It appears that the Public
Defender may have omitted important information about the
results, but the CEC has not been helpful in responding
immediately and publicly to the claims of fraud. Rather than
dispassionately clarifying their actions, both sides have
resorted to attacking the other. End comment.)

Machavariani Analyzes Election Prospects
--------------


9. (C) Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mikheil Machavariani
privately shared his thoughts on the UNM's chances in the May
21 election with Poloffs on April 10. Machavariani said he
is managing the UNM's campaign, although he is not the UNM's
new party secretary. He said former secretary general MP
Davit Kirkitadze merely traded positions with the former
governor of Kvemo Kartli, Zurab Melikishvili. According to
Machavariani, the UNM is focusing on OSCE and NGO
recommendations, and a consistent platform of economic
improvement in their campaign. He lamented the opposition's
focus on ousting Saakashvili and worried that they may force
serious unrest if they do not like the election results. In
order to increase public trust in the election process,
Machavariani said his party supports training election
commission members and allowing them to do their jobs
professionally, without interference. He said the CEC must
train commission members to accurately tabulate the results
and avoid mistakes. He hoped the UNM would not win another
constitutional majority of 2/3 of Parliament's seats in the
May election. However, he said some in his party hope that
the UNM does just that. Machavariani said the UNM currently
has about 42 percent popular support. Between this and the
majoritarian seats, he expects the UNM to win around 85 of
150 total seats. Machavariani indicated this would be among
the best of results, allowing the new Parliament time to
forge consensus with opposition members and jointly amend the
constitution (including the election of the majoritarian
seats) ahead of the 2010 local elections -- and then leave it
alone. (Comment: This could be a positive outcome, provided
the ruling party and opposition could work together to get
things done in a new Parliament. However, there is some
division within different camps of the UNM. Machavariani's
estimates are not shared by all, nor is his view of the
best-case scenario. End comment.)

Scotland Yard to Train Georgian Prosecutors
--------------


10. (U) From April 22-24 in Tbilisi, Scotland Yard, an FBI
Special Agent, and two Assistant United States Attorneys will
conduct training for the Georgian Prosecutor's Office on how
to prosecute financial infractions associated with political
campaigns. The Scotland Yard detectives will address

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potential abuses of administrative funds by government
officials while the U.S. experts will address illegal
campaign contributions and campaign fraud. This is the
second election crime seminar sponsored by the Department of
Justice Office of Overseas Prosecutorial Development and
Training (OPDAT). After the first seminar in December 2007,
the Prosecutor's office opened investigations to clarify
incidents where individuals allegedly stuffed ballot boxes
and voted twice during the January 2008 Presidential
elections.
TEFFT