GEORGIANS LOOK TO MAY 21 ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000545

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIANS LOOK TO MAY 21 ELECTIONS

REF: TBILISI 528

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) Summary: A Presidential decree on March 21 set the
date for upcoming parliamentary elections on May 21. Against
the backdrop of campaign preparations, events are unfolding
quickly. The ruling National Movement (UNM) party replaced
its Secretary General, effectively sidelining a leading
ruling party member. Patriarch Ilia II again called on the
government and opposition to cooperate on the election.
President Saakashvili introduced a restructured Inter-Agency
Task Force on Free and Fair Elections (IATF),and said the
group will ensure his personal guarantee of free elections.
The Republican Party restated the opposition's support for
Georgia's Membership Action Plan in NATO. ODIHR and the
Venice Commission both have initial observation teams
arriving in April. The OSCE Ambassadors Working Group
(OSCE-AWG) plans to address the GOG on election issues in the
coming week. In addition, the OSCE-AWG intends to coordinate
election observation teams throughout the country. End
Summary.

Kirkitadze Out as UNM Secretary General
--------------


2. (C) On March 28, MP Davit Kirkitadze, Secretary General of
the ruling UNM, was appointed Governor of the Kvemo Kartli
region, replacing Zurab Melikishvili. Melikishvili will
reportedly be placed on the UNM party list. It was reported
earlier that Kirkitadze wanted to run as a majoritarian
candidate in his native Chiatura single-mandate district.
According to reports, Deputy Speaker of Parliament Mikheil
Machavariani will take over as party leader of the UNM.
(Comment: Post interprets this move as a win for Saakashvili
insider MP Giga Bokeria, who is known to have butted heads
with Kirkitadze for influence in the UNM. Kvemo Kartli is
dominated by the Azeri minority community and was a
significant area of support for Saakashvili in the January 5
election. End comment.)

Patriarch Again Tells Government to Compromise
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3. (C) On March 30 during his Sunday sermon, Georgian
Orthodox Patriarch Ilia II repeated his call to the
government and opposition to resume dialogue on the election
(reftel),and to compromise on outstanding issues. Ilia II
noted that the opposition's decision to end the hunger strike
defused a tense situation. He then stressed that he had also
called on the government to take steps to resolve the
situation.

President Introduces Election Task Force
--------------


4. (C) On March 31, President Saakashvili publicly introduced
the revamped Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) on Free and Fair
Elections to the diplomatic corps. Saakashvili said the
government demands democratic elections and he specifically
appointed the IATF (reftel) to "guarantee" them. The
opposition, led by the Republican and Industrialist parties,
immediately denounced the IATF, claiming it is an ineffective
enforcer of the election code as evidenced by the fact that
the IATF for the presidential election had not provided any
results about its activities. The IATF also did not include
any opposition or parliamentary members.

Republicans Renew Call for MAP in NATO
--------------


5. (U) On March 31, Usupashvili held a briefing and announced
that -- despite the current disagreement in Georgia's
internal politics -- the Republican Party fully supports
Georgia's accession to NATO and called for NATO to grant
Georgia a Membership Action Plan. Usupashvili pointed out
that this is widely-held view among the opposition parties,
who had signed a compact supporting Georgia's MAP last fall.
He also stated that the public strongly supported Georgian
membership in NATO (77 percent) in the plebiscite held on
January 5.

ODIHR, CoE Election Observation Teams
Arriving in April
--------------


6. (SBU) In a meeting of the OSCE Ambassadors Working Group
(OSCE-AWG) on April 1, OSCE announced that ODIHR will have a
long-term election observation mission beginning on April 9.
Twenty-eight long-term ODIHR observers will arrive in Tbilisi
on April 15 and remain until at least May 29. They will stay

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until June 12 in case second round runoffs are needed. ODIHR
also intends to request 350 short-term election observers.
In addition, the Council of Europe announced that they too
will have an election observation team arriving in mid-April
for a pre-election survey. The CoE group will meet with
multiple parties and then return the week prior to the
elections. The CoE is hoping their observers will stay as
"long as possible" after the elections.

OSCE to Address GOG on Election Issues
--------------


7. (C) At the April 1 OSCE-AWG meeting, other governments
raised concern about several technical election issues.
These included the complaints process, the precinct results
protocols (reftel),Parliament's refusal to schedule the
Public Defender's annual presentation on human rights
(including the portion on elections),and the recent
selection of additional professional members of the District
Election Commissions (OSCE called these selections
"pre-determined"). The European Commission Ambassador
suggested that the OSCE-AWG draft a letter noting these
concerns and submit it to the IATF. The letter is being
drafted and will be cleared by OSCE-AWG members this week.

Coordinating Election Observation Teams
--------------


8. (SBU) In addition, one ambassador suggested that the
members of the OSCE-AWG coordinate their missions'
observation teams to avoid the duplication of observation
efforts seen on January 5. The OSCE-AWG may suggest a plan
toward this end at their next meeting.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The opposition now appears to be working full-bore on
the upcoming elections. On March 25, opposition leader
Salome Zourabichvili told Charge that the United Opposition
must run in the elections and are working toward this end.
She noted that since the UNC demanded early elections, it
would be ridiculous to boycott them now as the Labor Party
suggested.
TEFFT