GEORGIAN OPPOSITION HUNGER STRIKE ENDS, CAMPAIGN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000528 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM GG SUBJECT: GEORGIAN OPPOSITION HUNGER STRIKE ENDS, CAMPAIGN BEGINS? REF: A. TBILISI 496 ¶B. TBILISI 509 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Mark X. Perry; reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On March 25, after 16 days, the United National Council of Opposition (UNC) and the New Rightists (NR) party ended their hunger strike. They said they could not ignore a second appeal to stop by the Patriarch of the Georgian Orthodox Church, Ilia II, after he visited them at Parliament. One opposition leader was hospitalized earlier in the day. Now, it appears that the opposition is turning to the campaign for the May 21 parliamentary elections. March 26 marked the last day for political parties to register with the Central Election Commission (CEC). Also on March 26, Parliamentary Speaker Nino Burjanadze briefed NATO ambassadors on GOG steps to prepare for the election. Burjanadze underscored GOG commitment to free and fair elections. On March 26, Poloff attended an informal meeting of the Inter-Agency Task Force on Free and Fair Elections. End summary. ¶2. (U) On March 25, Conservative MP Zviad Dzidziguri was hospitalized and reportedly in a coma as a result of his participation in the opposition's hunger strike -- then in its 16th day (ref A). Following this, Ilia II ignored the opposition's plea to stay away and visited the hunger strikers in front of Parliament and again called on them to stop. Rather than continue the hunger strike, he told them to "find other forms" of protest, noting they should do everything they can to serve their homeland. UNC and NR leaders then ended the hunger strike, saying they "could not deny the Patriarch's request." (Comment: The opposition's hunger strike did not succeed in forcing any concessions from the GOG. However, the Patriarch's appeal gave them a face-saving way out of the situation. End comment.) ¶3. (U) The same day, Parliamentary Speaker Nino Burjanadze expressed her "deep gratitude" to Ilia II for asking the opposition to end the hunger strike. She then said that the GOG's major goal is to hold elections in a democratic and transparent manner. She called on the opposition to return to the negotiating table and agree on all the issues necessary to hold these elections. UNC leaders Koba Davitashvili and others said that they accepted Saakashvili's challenge, and would defeat his party in the elections. Consequently, it appears that the opposition is now turning to the pre-election campaign for the May 21 parliamentary election. As of the March 26 deadline to register with the CEC, 60 parties had indicated their intent to participate in the coming election. ¶4. (C) In a March 26 meeting with ambassadors from NATO member states, Burjanadze expressed regret that the government had not been able to reach a comprehensive agreement with the opposition on election reform, something she blamed on the fact that many opposition leaders had concluded that radicalization was in their political interest. Burjanadze said both David Gamkrelidze and Koba Davitashvili had essentially admitted to her that this was the logic behind their actions, although Burjanadze argued that in fact the opposition had lost ground with voters as a result of extreme tactics. Burjanadze explained how some opposition leaders, including David Usupashvili and Levan Gachechiladze, had met with her repeatedly in recent weeks but felt they had to keep this unofficial contact secret so as not to anger their allies. ¶5. (C) Burjanadze said that even without a formal compromise, the government would make additional concessions to the opposition, including ensuring that an opposition-appointed member of every District Election Commission (DEC) would be designated as DEC secretary, the position responsible for filling out protocols and for receiving complaints. She said the government remained willing to consider creating a parliamentary or interagency commission, chaired by an opposition member, to investigate complaints during the campaign and on election day. She said Usupashvili and Gachechiladze had asked for a slight delay in the date of the election, apparently to provide more time to recover from the hunger strike and to get organized. Burjanadze said the government would be willing to postpone the election from May 21 to May 31, but only if the opposition came forward publicly to request it. Otherwise, she said, the government would be criticized for setting the date for after the May 26 celebration of Georgia's Independence, which the opposition had previously asked the government not to do. ¶6. (C) The GOG has reconstituted the Inter-Agency Task Force TBILISI 00000528 002 OF 002 (IATF) for Free and Fair Elections from the January 5 election. Membership of the IATF includes the Ministry of Justice, MFA, Ministry of Internal Affairs, and State Minister for Regional Coordination Issues. NDI recommended that the Public Defender's Office be granted observer status, although this has not yet been done. Minister of Justice, Nika Gvaramia, chairs the IATF, as former MOJ Eka Tkeshelashvili did during the presidential election. On March 26, the IATF briefed Poloff, NDI, and the OSCE on the IATF's composition, goals and target audience (incl. observer missions, election NGOs, the Public Defender, diplomatic missions, political parties, Parliament, and the media.) The IATF intends to meet regularly and provide election updates to these groups. It intends to focus on transparency, inclusiveness, and anonymity. NDI suggested the IATF also include impartiality as one of their guiding principles. The MOIA representative mentioned it is his agency's intention to keep the police "as far away from the election precincts" as possible. ¶7. (U) On March 27, Tbilisi Mayor Gigi Ugulava and Deputy Speaker of Parliament Misha Machavariani confirmed that Speaker Nino Burjanadze will be number one on the ruling party's nationwide party list for the May 21 election. The United National Movement changed their official name to United National Movement for a Victorious Georgia, when they registered on March 26. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Burjanadze's comments are a welcome sign of GOG commitment to better elections, especially given the extremely weakened state of the opposition. Some of the opposition's legitimate complaints have been addressed (lowering the party list threshold, replacing the board of the Public TV Broadcaster, and adding opposition representation -- though not at "parity" -- to the DECs.) However, others have not. Nearly all outside observers believe the GOG retained the current 75 single mandate "majoritarian" districts (based on outdated and highly varied current populations of former Soviet administrative boundaries) because it believes the system will likely advantage the ruling National Movement. The GOG also enacted only some of NDI's and OSCE's recommendations to amend the election code (ref B). ¶9. (C) After repeated interventions by us, including the Ambassador with Speaker Burjanadze, the GOG will not remove critical information from the protocols, as there was some earlier move to do. The GOG will remove the total number of voters and total number of valid ballots from the protocols, in an effort to simplify them and reduce the number of protocols with clerical errors. This move is contrary to NDI and OSCE recommendations, as it also removes some of the verification ability from election analysis. It will still be possible, however, as we strongly pushed, to calculate key information such as voter turnout from the information on the protocols, which will again be posted publicly on the CEC website. PERRY