IMF MISSION UPBEAT ON GEORGIA'S ECONOMIC PROSPECTS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000442 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/CARC AND EEB/IFD/OMA STATE PASS USTR FOR PAUL BURKHEAD COMMERCE FOR DANICA STARKS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON PGOV USTR GG SUBJECT: IMF MISSION UPBEAT ON GEORGIA'S ECONOMIC PROSPECTS REF: A. TBILISI 190 ¶B. TBILISI 387 ¶1. Summary: A March IMF mission to Georgia led by IMF senior advisor for the Caucasus David Owen offered a surprisingly upbeat assessment of Georgia's economy during a briefing of diplomats in Tbilisi at the conclusion of the mission. Overall, Owen said, "the economic outlook is pretty strong." He predicted nine percent growth in 2008. He believes the government can achieve lower inflation and a reduced budget deficit as well. Owen discussed, without undue concern, the government's plans to create new sovereign wealth funds, issue Eurobonds for the first time, mandate a budget surplus and inflation targeting by the central bank and establish a new financial regulatory agency. End Summary. ¶2. Owen said that the mission came to Georgia at the request of the GOG, which wanted an independent assessment of the economy in the wake of the political turmoil in late 2007. The mission's conclusion was that the loss of confidence in Georgia's future was short-lived and that capital inflows have been stronger than expected. Owen said that foreign direct investment (FDI) in the fourth quarter of 2007 was at a record level, and total FDI for in 2007 was USD 2.2 billion, also a record mark for Georgia. (Note: Ministry of Economic Development figures are somewhat lower, but still strong at USD 1.7 billion.) Owen said that the IMF is predicting nine percent real GDP growth in 2008, despite the current difficult global economic situation. The IMF's prediction is much more than the five or six percent used by the Government in its budget projections for the year. ¶3. Georgia has done a better job controlling inflation than many Asian countries, Owen said. Nevertheless, increases in food and energy prices, coupled with a fairly loose monetary and fiscal policies contributed to the year-end inflation rate of 11 percent. This means that controlling inflation is the main challenge for the government and the central bank, he continued. The government has announced its intention to rein in spending, cutting the government's consolidated budget deficit from five percent of GDP in 2007 to two percent in 2008 -- and actually a small surplus, if privatization income is counted as revenue. Spending on ;defense and infrastructure will go down while social spending will increase, although spending as a whole will be 3-4 percent less than in 2007. The GOG's agenda is one of smaller, less intrusive government. However, the government's plans for cutting taxes may be difficult to realize because of continuing pressure to spend on social needs, he added. The central bank is increasing interest rates and allowing the lari to appreciate as well, in order to keep inflation in check. There is a good chance the government and central bank can meet their target of 8 percent inflation in 2008. Owen said inflation may "blip up" in the short term because some months of price deflation early in 2007 will drop out of the calculation of year-on-year inflation as the year progresses. ¶4. The IMF team spent some time examining the package of economic measures now under consideration by Parliament. The trend of the new laws is toward a rules based framework for economic policy, Owen said. Inflation targeting by the central bank and a fiscal surplus by the government (counting privatization income as revenue) would be mandated by law. Owen thinks that requiring a surplus is rather rigid, and perhaps unrealistic given political realities, but he credits the government for wanting to lock in strong fiscal performance. Similarly, he remarked, legislating inflation targeting by the central bank is an unusual step, although the IMF has often recommended such targeting for economies like Georgia. Two sovereign wealth funds are to be created, reducing the temptation to spend revenues diverted into them immediately. Owen said that in fact the law does not offer very many circumstances for spending the funds at all. He stressed that the funds must be well-managed, transparent, and invested in high-quality assets in order to succeed. He also noted that Georgia's resources for funding the special funds are smaller than ever, with Georgian Railways and Poti port being the only really major privatizations left. He said the government has a large number of small companies it is willing to sell, and expects its privatization revenues in 2008 will amount to two percent of GDP (very roughly USD 160 million). In the case of the railroad, the plan is to sell 10 percent of the shares and transfer the rest of the government's shares to the Future Generations fund. Georgia's desire to establish a sovereign wealth fund is somewhat unusual, he said, because they are more commonly established in major oil-producing countries with big revenue TBILISI 00000442 002 OF 002 streams to fund them. ¶5. (Note: Post in the past has been concerned about the use of extrabudgetary funds to permit spending outside the control of the parliament, most notably a Presidential fund that was funded by "contributions" from entities wishing to avoid prosecution for corruption shortly after Saakashvili took power in 2004. Such funds have now been all but phased out. The currently proposed special funds bear watching, but their funding sources and their management are more clearly established by law than the previous ones. We understand their expenditures are to be authorized by parliament, and that disbursements would be made into the overall government budget. The law on the Future Generations fund contains detailed requirments for its oversight, including responsible management and independent audits. The law on the Stable Development fund is sketchier and assigns the central bank to manage it. The Embassy will be alert for signs of trouble in both of these funds, if they are created. End Note.) ¶6. The IMF's main concern is that the central bank's independence be preserved, Owen said. Central bank independence and accountability is a good thing, he added, but the with a new requirement that the bank president be dismissed if inflation exceeds 12 percent for six quarters, parliament is setting up a harsh regime. Parliament wants to continue to approve the instruments and policies of the central bank on an annual basis, but the bank management is being forced by law to take responsibility for the outcome. ¶7. The GOG is preparing to issue USD 500 million worth of its first dollar-denominated Eurobonds. Owen is skeptical about the need for such an issue. He said the GOG's stated reason for the issuance is to establish a sovereign interest rate benchmark that can be used to set rates for private debt issuances. However, the government is also in need of liquidity, he said. The proceeds of the Eurobonds will be expensive. While the government has suggested the money will be used to fund a transmission line and gas storage, more recently we were told by Energy Minister Khetaguri that is no longer under consideration (ref B). Owen said he was told by the GOG the proceeds of the Eurobonds would not be spent in 2008 and are likely to go into the two new extra-budgetary funds. He doubts the GOG will be able to earn as much through the funds' investments as the Eurobond money costs to borrow. However, he said, the government knows this and still seems to believe establishing the benchmark is worth the cost. ¶8. Post's econoff asked Owen if he was concerned about the quality of commercial banks' portfolios of loans, since banking assets grew another 70 percent in 2007. Owen acknowledged that such rapid growth deserves careful supervision. He noted plans to create a combined financial regulatory agency under the central bank to oversee banks, brokerages and insurance companies. Under the current bank regulatory scheme in the central bank, he said, there has "clearly been a deterioration" in supervision. The government's intention by creating the new, more independent regulator is to strengthen supervision. He noted that this is an about-face from earlier half-hearted efforts by the government, under the influence of former State Minister for Reform Kakha Bendukidze, to emphasize freedom of commerce over strong bank supervision. The combined financial regulator is a reasonable basis for better supervision, he said. Similar agencies exist in other countries and the IMF does not find grounds for concern in its creation. ¶9. Owen said there is still a need for a more reliable base of statistics in Georgia. The Statistics Department, which recently has come under the aegis of the Ministry of Economic Development, used to be independent. Owen said it is not clear what status for the agency is ideal. Finally, he told the gathered diplomats that there are no plans for a future IMF program in Georgia, after the Poverty Reduction and Growth program ended on schedule last year. PERRY