SAAKASHVILI TO WIN GEORGIA'S PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000027 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2018 TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM GG SUBJECT: SAAKASHVILI TO WIN GEORGIA'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WITH NARROW MARGIN Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (U) Summary: In what has been the most competitive presidential race in Georgia's history, former president Saakashvili appears set to win the January 5 presidential elections with 52 percent of the vote. His biggest challenger, United Opposition's Levan Gachechiladze, is set to achieve 25 percent of the vote. The International Observation Mission assessed that Georgia's election was in essence consistent with most OSCE and Council of Europe commitments and standards. It noted also significant challenges which need to be addressed urgently, including a blurring of the distinction between state activities and the former president's campaign, unbalanced media coverage which tended to favor the ruling party's candidate, a number of substantiated cases of voter intimidation, and many significant procedural shortcomings in the vote count. Although trusted NGO Georgian Young Lawyers' Association (GYLA) assessed the election as "valid," Gachechiladze and supporters pressed their way into the Central Election Commission (CEC) January 8 and verbally attacked the Central Election Commissioner for allegedly falsifying vote summary protocols. The opposition claims that the summaries posted on the CEC's website do not match those obtained by their observers in the precincts. The opposition has called for protests from January 13 until 18, starting the day the CEC must by law certify the election results. End summary. VOTE COUNT AS OF 5:00 P.M. ON JANUARY 8 -------------- ¶2. (U) As of 5:00 p.m. local time on January 8, the CEC had counted 3070 out of more than 3400 Precinct Election Commissions (PECs) which showed Saakashvili with 52.1 percent of the vote and Gachechiladze with 24.98 percent of the vote. By Georgian law, the CEC must certify the result by January 13. IN ESSENCE CONSISTENT WITH MOST INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS -------------- -------------- --- ¶3. (U) A report released on January 6 by the International Election Observation Mission (IEOM), which includes the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly (PA),Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR),the Parliamentary Assembly of Europe (PACE),and the European Parliament (EP) assessed that the election was in essence consistent with most OSCE and Council of Europe commitments and standards for democratic elections. It noted also significant challenges which need to be addressed urgently, including a blurring of the distinction between state activities and the former president's campaign, unbalanced media coverage which tended to favor the ruling party's candidate, a number of substantiated cases of voter intimidation, and many significant procedural shortcomings in the vote count. ¶4. (U) The report commended the work of the CEC, which it said prepared the election in an overall professional manner and undertook significant efforts to improve the voters' list, but criticized the CEC for acting along partisan lines. It also noted positively the Government's formation of an Inter-Agency Task Force, set up by the Acting President, to address concerns. He noted that the Acting President at times intervened personally in response to the opposition's grievances. The report noted the election as the first competitive presidential election and that it took place in a highly polarized political environment which was not conducive to a constructive, issues-based campaign. GOVERNMENT CRITICS CALL THE ELECTION VALID -------------- ¶5. (U) Respected local NGO GYLA's Head Giorgi Chkheidze said that GYLA, which fielded observers TBILISI 00000027 002 OF 002 across the country, found widespread irregularities and technical problems during the election but not overt signs of fraud. He said the election should be considered valid. (Note: GYLA in general is known to be a government critic. End note.) Similarly, Ombudsman Sozar Subari, who has in the past been unabashedly critical of the government, said that while the ruling party's abuse of administrative resources puts the broader fairness of the election into question, the actual voting was credible. He told the media on January 6 that the election was much better than Georgians are used to. OPPOSITION CLAIMS FRAUD, CALLS FOR PROTESTS -------------- ¶6. (U) In dramatic fashion, opposition candidate Levan Gachecheladze and supporters pressed their way into the CEC early on January 8 to verbally and publicly attack the CEC for allegedly falsifying vote summary protocols. The opposition claims that the protocol summaries posted on the CEC's website do not match those obtained by their observers in the precincts. The opposition has called for protests from January 13 until 18. EMBASSY SEES NO SYSTEMIC CONCERNS, A FEW SIGNIFICANT IRREGULARITIES -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) The Embassy fielded 20 teams throughout the country. Embassy observers saw no systemic concerns, although observers saw one instance of ballot stuffing in Akhalkalaki (the ethnic Armenian region) and many instances of procedural violations including some voter intimidation and poor counting procedures. Two of the Embassy teams' protocols appeared on the CEC website with numbers that were different from those received at the precinct and benefited Saakashvili. Ambassador Tefft raised this issue with CEC Chairman Tarknishvili, who pledged to look immediately into it and prosecute anyone found to have doctored election results. End summary. TEFFT