GEORGIA: PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE PREVIEWS FINDINGS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002420 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: PARLIAMENTARY COMMITTEE PREVIEWS FINDINGS REF: A. TBILISI 2016 ¶B. TBILISI 2219 ¶C. TBILISI 2225 Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Chairman of the ad-hoc of the Parliamentary Commission ("Commission") to look into events during and preceding the August war between Georgia and Russia, Paata Davitaia (Leader of "We Ourselves" Parliamentary Opposition),briefed the Diplomatic Corps December 17 on the upcoming release of the Commission's findings and recommendations (an official English version should be available early next week). Based on the briefing, it appears many of the Commission's findings will support the Commission's conclusion that conflict with Russia was unavoidable due to repeated Russian (or their South Ossetian and Abkhaz allies) provocation, law breaking, and aggression. The Commission found that Russian aggression began in the 1990s and escalated in January 2008, reaching a peak in early August. The Commission is also expected to be critical of the GOG's response, or lack thereof, leading up to the August events. In a separate meeting prior to the briefing, Davitaia told us that the Commission will outline a number of proposed recommendations including the replacement of select Ministers (which has already occurred); better NSC and Defense coordination; development of coherent foreign policy coordination between the MFA and Georgia's Embassies; and a more institutionalized approach to National Security planning. In his comments to the diplomats, Davitaia noted that the Commission was an ad hoc body not an investigatory commission with the power to subpoena or investigate individuals. However, he repeatedly mentioned the total cooperation he and the Commission received from all Georgian authorities. The Commission's report will be presented to the public by Davitaia on live television beginning at 1800 Tbilisi time, December 18, and then released to the public in writing on December 19. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Comment: From our vantage point, the Commission's approach reflects an honest, professional, and thorough look at what lead to the August conflict and how the Georgian Government responded. The unprecedented and public appearances of 22 high-ranking Georgian officials, culminating with the five-hour appearance of President Saakashvili before the nation, was historic and kept the nation enthralled for several weeks. The Commission findings are expected to highlight one important fact -- that this conflict cannot and should not be boiled down to only what happened on August 7. Although the findings are critical of Saakashvili and his Government and how they handled the conflict, the report focuses on structural issues rather than attempting to assign blame on any particular individual. President Saakashvili largely pre-empted many of the proposed recommendations by his recent Cabinet shake up, which appears to have taken place partly to take some of the political sting out of Davitaia's impending recommendations. However, this also indicates how seriously Saakashvili appears to have taken this Commission, because of his decision to make key Cabinet and personnel changes, and by his agreement to testify in front of the Commission. The GOG's next challenge will be to assess the findings and initiate institutional changes to ensure future Georgian policies and decisions are better planned and executed. End Comment. COMMISSION FINDS FAULTS ¶3. (C) The Commission found a number of faults with the GOG's handling of the August events. Lack of coordination QGOG's handling of the August events. Lack of coordination between the NSC and armed forces was specifically highlighted. Leading up to and during the conflict, decisions were made hastily on an ad hoc basis which often lacked key input from other facets of government. The Commission criticized the inadequacy of planning prior to August 7, noting that no GOG governmental sessions were held, and no preparatory meetings were organized to discuss how to coordinate a response if Russia invaded or how to deal institutionally with an up-tick of South Ossetian or Abkhaz irregular activity. Considering the conflict had been simmering for over a decade, the GOG could have been much better prepared to deal with various contingencies of open conflict in South Ossetia. The Commission also accused Russia of openly aiding and abetting irregular forces engaged in military activity in the two breakaway regions. The full report will be read on live television the evening of December 18 to inform the public of the Commission's assessment, before being released in written form on December ¶19. An English-language version should be available the week of December 22. DAVITAIA TELLS US WHAT HE REALLY THINKS ¶4. (C) Davitaia also previewed the Commission's findings to TBILISI 00002420 002 OF 002 visiting EUR DAS Bryza on December 16. He said that all those Cabinet members and staffers who came under suspicion for subpar or negligent performance have already been replaced. He seemed pleased with the results, but was serious about insisting for more institutional change. Davitaia, an IDP from Abkhazia himself, harbors no illusions as to who is ultimately responsible for creating an untenable situation in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. He said the Russian General Staff had already prepared a military attack order and the Russians had been ramping up provocations since early this year. He also said he believes the Russians used tactical weapons such as Iskander and Tochka - U missiles solely to show potential buyers (he named Syria) their capabilities. Davitaia criticized the Russians for continuing the conflict after the cease-fire was signed and lamented that the Russian appear to be hardening their positions. ¶5. (C) Davitaia told members of a visiting CODEL (the House Democracy Assistance Commission) December 18 that although different Commission members have different points of view on the actors and the events (and are from different political parties),the findings represented an uncontroversial consensus. Davitaia pointed out that even GOG officials who were interviewed by the Commission have publicly admitted to shortcomings and mistakes. Because the Commission has no investigatory power, all allegations that involve potential legal repercussions have been turned over to the Prosecutor General's office for possible investigation, including the statements of former Georgian Ambassador to Russia, Erosi Kitsmarashvili, who alleged that the U.S. gave Georgia a "green light" to attack. Commission Member, Levan Vepkhvadze (Deputy Speaker - Christian Democrats) added that all claims of atrocities, including South Ossetian claims of Georgian atrocities, have also been turned over to the Prosecutor General's Office for formal investigations. Finally, Davitaia expressed his hope and willingness to work with Chairperson Heidi Tagliavini's EU investigation. TEFFT