GEORGIA: NOT ALL OPPONENTS SUPPORT EARLY ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002400 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: NOT ALL OPPONENTS SUPPORT EARLY ELECTIONS Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Comment: Although parliamentary and presidential elections are not scheduled to take place until 2012 and 2013 respetively, calls for early elections have become de rigueur in Georgia for some opposition leaders. Thus far, President Saakashvili does not appear inclined to call either parliamentary or presidential elections in the near term. According to the Constitution, the President has the authority to call for new elections at any time, but it appears at this point, elections bring him no political advantage. They are not widely desired by the public at large, and elections are expensive - something Saakashvili is quick to note. Christian Democratic (CDM) leader, Gigi Targamadze told us he opposes early elections, as his party has a four-year strategy for winning the highest office. Targamadze is focusing on building a party throughout the country and thinking politically in terms of years rather than days, a strategy which separates him from virtually all of the non-Parliamentary opposition. End Comment. THE MECHANISM EXISTS, BUT DOES THE MOTIVATION? ¶2. (C) To clarify Georgia's process, President Saakashvili could initiate early presidential or parliamentary elections by one of potentially four ways. The first would be to resign his presidency, which would trigger a new election after at least a 60 day interim period. (Embassy Note: Saakashvili used this mechanism to trigger last January's Presidential Election. If Saakashvili resigned again, the Georgian Constitution could bar him from competing in the next Presidential Election by virtue of having won two concurrent elections. End Note.) The second would be to dissolve Parliament and call for new elections after three successive votes fail for Prime Minister, the Government, or the budget. In principle, this power allows the President to dissolve a recalcitrant Parliament. However, Saakashvili could easily meet this legalistic hurdle if he wanted new elections as the overwhelming majority of Parliamentarians are members of the President's party (the National Movement -- UNM) and a vote of "no confidence" could easily be arranged. Again, the election would be subject to a minimum 60 day waiting period. Another possibility would be for Parliament to vote to change the constitution and allow for new elections which was the basis for last May's Parliamentary elections. (Embassy Comment: Because UNM still holds a constitutional majority in Parliament, this would probably be the most straightforward way to hold new pre-term elections. End Comment.) Lastly, in theory, President Saakashvili could declare a crisis situation then use his emergency powers to "resolve the crisis" by holding new elections. In this case, the President's legal authority may be dubious or unclear, but opposition leaders would be highly unlikely to forgo new elections by challenging the decision on legalistic grounds. ¶3. (SBU) Saakashvili recently addressed the question (and indirectly Nino Burjanadze's recent comments that Georgia under Saakashvili is viewed as a banana republic) by saying frequent elections would not be a sign of "statehood". He further criticized the opposition saying that "(i)f we want to make fun of our country and hold two or three elections per year anytime someone is unhappy with the election results, then it would mean we are no longer a state." According to the CEC chairman, the government spent approximately $45 million for elections in 2008, and QSaakashvili said those calling for early elections in the midst of the current financial crisis are doing so "not for our people; not for the economy; not for development and not for rescuing Georgia; but for politicians and their campaigns". ¶4. (C) In the Embassy's view, Saakashvili has practically nothing to gain by calling for new elections. Calls for new elections enjoy little public support, and the President's argument that elections are expensive has put opposition candidates on the defensive. Saakashvili's other argument is also sound; essentially stating that the opposition wants him to fix their failures - either their failure to win enough votes to enter Parliament last May or their failure to accept their seats. Conversely, acquiescing to demands for new elections would be seen as legitimizing his critics and their agenda. Moreover, the non-Parliamentary opposition has not yet decided what kind of elections to demand (Parliamentary or Presidential) or how to initiate these elections. Absent a major public crisis in confidence, Saakashvili is almost certain to keep elections on their normal timelines. Saakashvili seems content to have the opposition paint themselves into a corner by single-mindedly pursuing new elections. DOES ANYBODY HAVE AN ALTERNATIVE PLAN? TBILISI 00002400 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) CDM leader and member of Parliament Gigi Targamadze told us on December 13 that he largely agrees with Saakashvili's view on elections ad does not support an early contest. Targamadze has seen his public profile rise since accepting his Parliamentary mandate and he leads a credible, albeit small, opposition group within the Parliament. Targamadze is committed to building a long-term strategy to bring the CDM to power in four years. Targamadze is slowly establishing himself and his party as a "third" way, neither in government nor as a member of the United Opposition. Rather than a singular focus on new elections, hoping he catches an anti-Saakashvili wave to bring him to power, he is focused on party building and governance. Targamadze believes that expanding into the regions and creating a national organization with a "bench" of local politicians is how the Christian Democrats can make, and have made, substantial gains. Targamadze understands that building a party and engaging in policy debates on issues like national defense (septel) and the budget is a more effective way to work in opposition. Ironically, because they have followed a less confrontational approach, if the more radical opposition gets their new elections, Targamadze and the Christian Democrats could stand to gain at their expense. TEFFT