GEORGIA: NEW OPPOSITION ALLIANCE UPS THE ANTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002304 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: NEW OPPOSITION ALLIANCE UPS THE ANTE REF: TBILISI 2189 Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: David Usupashvili (Republicans) and David Gamkrelidze (New Rights),two of the more moderate leaders in the opposition outside of parliament, formally announced their alliance, thereby making public their plans to work together as an opposition voice. The two also extended a public offer to Irakli Alasania to become the leader of this new alliance at a press conference. Usupashvili and Gamkrelidze called for new parliamentary and presidential elections though did not specify any timetable. Both downplayed policy differences between them, preferring to focus on a yet-to-be-released joint policy platform. They also ruled out any cooperation with former Prime Minister Zurab Noghaideli, and said they would work with Nino Burjanadze and her party on the condition she give up her presidential ambitions. ¶2. (C) Comment: The move was widely expected and timed to coincide with Alasania's resignation as UN Permanent Representative. Previously, David Usupashvili indicated to the Ambassador that Alasania's move to lead this new opposition bloc was imminent. By going forward with the announcement without Alasania's participation and publicly offering the leadership role to Alasania, the two Datos (as they are known here) made it appear as if Alasania might still be weighing his options inside the government and out. Without Alasania, the new alliance represents more of a codification of existing political conditions than a new way forward, and a visible sign that the opposition outside of parliament is splitting into moderate and radical factions. However, if Usupashvili and Gamkrelidze are true to their stated intention of issues-based party building, the new alliance could serve as a positive force for a more productive political dialogue. End Summary and Comment. Hey Irakli, Let's Make a Deal ¶3. (C) As David Gamkrelidze told us a few weeks ago, a new alliance had been agreed upon and he and Usupashvili were waiting for the right timing. Gamkrelidze and Usupashvili have been focused on convincing Alasania to head up the new coalition. By going public now, they have both separated themselves from the more radical members of the extra-parliamentary opposition and confirmed that they had been talking with Alasania. At their press conference, they went one step further by publicly offering their coalition to Alasania. The public offer might be an attempt to force Alasania's hand and get him to commit to joining the two Datos in opposition. Gamkrelidze's and Usupashvili's offer to Alasania represents the foundation of a ready made centrist political party; access to funds and organization (albeit it limited); and a top spot. The downside is that joining their coalition also means taking on the baggage of two national politicians who lack any natural constituency, power base or real popularity. Alasania appears to be weighing the offer, although with no scheduled elections, the immediate upside of joining this newly-formed coalition is greatly diminished and would make it hard for Alasania to present himself as a new face on the political scene. We'll Get To That Later ¶4. (C) Although socially very close friends, politically there are significant policy differences between the "two Dato's." When asked the obvious question as to who would lead the alliance if Alasania demurred, they said they would address the issue later. They were also asked about immediate elections and calls for Saakashvili's resignation Qimmediate elections and calls for Saakashvili's resignation which New Rights favored and the Republicans opposed; disagreements on governmental structure; and about its joint platform. David Usupashvili simple stated that "(a)fter one month, the coalition will present to the society its platform, action plan and its leader, which will manage to unite the democratic forces in the country to secure the change of the current government." Privately both have stressed to us that they understand the need to find a message other than simply being anti-Saakashvili. Unfortunately the focus on a personality based future (Alasania); the absence of articulating a coherent alternative message and governing vision during the announcement of their coalition; and focusing on calls for new elections show that old habits indeed die hard. Partners Are Scarce ¶5. (C) In the May Parliamentary Elections, the Usupashvili-led Republicans won 3.8 percent of the vote while in the January Presidential Elections, David Gamkrelidze won 4.0 percent of the vote. (Embassy Note: In the Parliamentary Elections, the New Rights party ran with United TBILISI 00002304 002 OF 002 Opposition and not as an individual party so parliamentary numbers are unavailable. End Note.) Following his disappointing show in the presidential elections, Gamkrelidze had embraced the more radical opposition outside of parliament. The new coalition with Usupashvili shows his return to the mode moderate center. ¶6. (C) At best, the new coalition represents a small percentage of the voting populace and without some unlikely multiplier effect, it will need to gain partners to act as a more credible political force. The new coalition has publicly ruled out Noghaideli and, as a practical matter, Nino Burjanadze, who is clearly not willing to be anybody's number two. Some press outlets are reporting that Ombudsman Sozar Subari has had discussions about joining the new coalition, although Subari has refused to confirm or deny the matter and is reportedly happy to be politically active from his ombudsman's office. Both David Gamkrelidze and Usupashvili have told us that Levan Gachechiladze is welcome to join under the condition he distance himself from the more radical opposition. Gachechiladze is reluctant to do so as of yet. Moreover, he does not bring a significant organization or constituency to the coalition should he decide to join. Privately, both Gamkrelidze and Usupashvili rule out cooperation with others in the more radical opposition. Although they may play a significant role, absent Alasania or perhaps Subari, the new Gamkrelidze/Usupashvili coalition has few if any obvious avenues to further consolidate the larger opposition. TEFFT