OPPOSITION SUSPENDS TALKS WITH GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000229 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2018 TAGS: KDEM PHUM PGOV GG SUBJECT: OPPOSITION SUSPENDS TALKS WITH GOVERNMENT Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. Summary: Koba Davitashvili, United National Council (UNC) announced the decision to suspend talks with the ruling party United National Movement (UNM) representatives on the afternoon of February 8 following an impasse on resolution of two of the 17 demands made by the opposition. In a follow up conversation with Republican leader David Berdzenishvili, Berdzenishvili said that Speaker Burjanadze had given a verbal promise to deal with the two outstanding issues--replacing the head of the Georgian National Public Broadcast Station and the Chairmanship of the Central Election Commission issues--by Monday. Berdzenishvili implied that Koba Datashvili's announcement of the suspension of talks was "hasty." At a meeting on February 7 with DCM, Irine Kurdadze, Nino Burjanadze's Chief of Staff, said the UNC was having trouble keeping unity and speaking with one voice and had tabled some meetings with UNC until the return of David Usupashvili, Head of the Republican Party, from a trip to the U.S. and Mexico. In a separate meeting with DCM on February 7, Misha Machvariani, Deputy Speaker, called Usupashvili the unifying factor in the UNC and by meeting with him when he returns to Tbilisi on February 10, they hope he will be able to keep a consensus among the opposition parties for another meeting with Burjanadze next week. End Summary. Suspension of Talks -------------- ¶2. (C) Davitashvili announced the talks between the UNM and the UNC were suspended due to an impasse over two issues--dealing with replacement of the head of the Georgian Public Broadcast Station (PBS) and head of the Chairman of the Central Election Committee (CEC). In a February 8 meeting with Poloff, Berdzenishvili said that outwardly the talks appeared to be gathering steam, but he was quite morose over what he called the lack of progress in those areas to which they had earlier had substantial agreement. If the UNM wanted a "package deal," the UNC wants to go step by step and discuss each issue separately. In a later conversation after Davitashvili's announcement, Berdzenishvili said that Speaker Nino Burjanadze had given a verbal promise to deal with the CEC and PBS issues by Monday, and if done, that both sides will meet afterwards again. Berdzenishvili said that Davitashvili's statement was perhaps a bit "hasty." Issue #1: Representational System -------------- ¶3. (C) Before this latest development, Machvariani and Berdzenishvili were both very upbeat about mutual acceptance of the plan to replace the majoritarian system with a more representational system, one of the key demands of the opposition's 17 demands. Machvariani had traveled to OSCE in Vienna last November, and there had talked with experts about appropriate electoral European models which could be used in Georgia. Due to Presidential elections, though, it is only now that he was able to put forth his idea to the opposition. His proposal, which appeared to be acceptable to the UNC, is to replace the majoritarian system with a representational system based on population percentages. Under the proposed program, there would be a total of 50 regional seats, with two assigned to Abkhazia and one assigned to South Ossetia. The remainder of the 47 seats would be distributed throughout Georgia. Both sides have yet to decide on formulas, but were close to agreement. ¶4. (C) The UNC is still undecided as to whether candidates would run on a unified ticket under the UNC or whether parties would run separately during the Parliamentary elections. If candidates run under the UNC umbrella, then Republicans would have the largest faction and other parties with smaller followings at the bottom of the list. Berdzenishvili told Poloff on February 8 that there are several wild card parties that could appear which could affect the result of the Parliamentary elections. Firstly, Speaker Burjanadze could split off from the UNC and form her own political party. He added that she had increased her credibility in the last months and this would be to her advantage now in forming a new political party. Secondly, former Imedi Anchor (and Aslan Abashidze's Chief of Staff) Giorgi Targamadze had recently announced his new political party, the Christian Democratic Movement, although no one is sure yet of the party's affiliation or platform. Another outstanding question was whether oligarch Badri Patarkatsishvili would form a party to compete in the Parliamentary elections. TBILISI 00000229 002 OF 002 Issue #2: Composition of Election Commissions -------------- - ¶5. (C) The second big issue among opposition candidates concerns the composition of the election commissions. Both sides were positive that they would reach agreement on the composition of the Central Election Commission (CEC), District Election Commission (DEC),and precinct election commission (PECs),but the UNM thought the UNC's proposal of parity was not something which was realistic. The main obstacle faced in the Presidential elections was that there were no opposition representation at the DEC at all, and many alleged irregularities occurred at this level. On February 8, Berdzenishvili told Poloff that the current CEC Chairman, Levan Tarkhnishvili, was unacceptable, but as of yet both sides had not found a mutually acceptable candidate. He said that a CEC Chairman from OSCE, COE, or EC could be an option which would be palatable to both sides. Issue #3: Release of "Political Prisoners" -------------- ¶6. (C) The third big issue is the list of "political prisoners" identified by the UNC as those persecuted for their political activism. The list consists of approximately 50 names, and according to Machvariani, includes names not only of those who participated in events in November, but also names of those who were jailed in Shevardnadze's time, several for assassination attempts against Shevardnadze. This list, although shared with the government, has not been openly published. With Poloff on February 8, Berdzenishvili said that the government was to meet with UNC about this subject again, but the meeting had been recently tabled. Issue #4: Election Day -------------- ¶7. (C) The fourth big issue is the election date. Originally, the UNC had proposed the month of April for Parliamentary elections, but now concedes that a date prior to May 18 would be acceptable. In a February 8 meeting with Poloff, Machvariani said that UNM is seeking to push the election date to later in May in order to have time to make the necessary changes in the electoral code. Berdzenishvili maintains that an election date in the later part of May, i.e., May 25, would allow the government to capitalize on the May 26 Independence Holiday patriotism, and shut down Rustaveli to opposition protests under the guise of "rehearsing for holiday parades." Regardless of the date chosen, it must be announced by law at least 60 days prior to the election. Plans of the UNM -------------- ¶8. (C) Machvariani told DCM on February 7 that discussions with the UNC was best served by talking privately with David Usupashvili first, and then together with the rest of the UNC representatives. Machvariani sees in Usupashvili a person who wants compromise, and can mediate effectively between the two groups. Currently, Machvariani is waiting for Usupashvili to return before they re-engage with him in the early part of the week. U.S. Indicates Readiness to Help on Elections -------------- - ¶9. (C) DCM told Machvariani in a February 7 meeting that the U.S. is ready to assist with Parliamentary elections and especially in the areas of changes to the election code, accuracy of the voter's list, improvement of the vote tabulation process, and strengthening training at all levels for election commission members, as well as observers. Machvariani was receptive to the offer and assured Poloffs that in 10 days the GOG would be ready to talk about where assistance is needed. He agreed that the best venue to get this message out would be at the OSCE Ambassadorial meeting to ensure maximization of distribution of the information while cutting down on donor overlaps in assistance. TEFFT