GEORGIA: CABINET RESHUFFLE TRIGGERED BY ALASANIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002268 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: CABINET RESHUFFLE TRIGGERED BY ALASANIA RESIGNATION REF: TBILISI 2189 Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: Prime Minister Mgaloblishvili announced a cabinet reshuffle on December 6 almost immediately following the news that Irakli Alasania, Georgia's former Ambassador to the UN, had resigned. Grigol Vashadze, current Minister of Culture and former Deputy Foreign Minister, was named the new FM. Nika Gvaramia, a former Justice Minister, has been named the Education Minister. Defense Minister Davit Kezerashvili was dismissed, replaced by his deputy Batu Kutelia. Although another reshuffle was expected in early 2009, the timing of this announcement came as a surprise to many including incoming FM Vashadze, who noted at the news briefing announcing the reshuffle that he had only learned about it a half hour in advance. President Saakashvili insisted that the move was in the works for weeks and was not a reaction to Alasania's announcement. Saakashvili has been wooing Alasania for months to take a major position in the Cabinet, and reportedly formally offered Alasania the post of Foreign Minister or Minister of Defense once he learned of Alasania's resignation to try to stave off his defection to the opposition, but Alasania declined. Alasania is expected to explain his resignation and future plans publicly in the weeks ahead once he returns to Tbilisi. He is in discussions with and being actively courted by David Usupashvili (Republican party) and David Gamkrelidze (New Rights party) to head their newly formed opposition coalition. PM Mgaloblishvili also announced that Kakha Lomaia will leave his post as the Secretary of Georgia's National Security Council but will continue his work in diplomatic service, perhaps at the UN according to one press report. ¶2. (C) Comment: The Cabinet reshuffle on the heels of Alasania's resignation appears to be an attempt by Saakashvili to lessen the political impact of the Alasania's announcement. Despite public assertions by President Saakashvili that consultations about the reshuffle were underway for weeks, it seems clear that Alasania's decision to resign triggered Saakashvili's decision to move quickly with the reshuffle. The fact that incoming FM Vashadze was out of the loop on the reshuffle decision, that Zurab Abashidze (former Georgian Ambassador to Russia) turned down the post of Minister of Culture and the news that current Minister of Education reportedly learned that he had been fired from watching television are all indications that the move may have been made hastily and without much consultation. However, by moving quickly, Saakashvili has also preempted what we understand will be one of the recommendations of the Parliamentary commission investigating the war -- to change key ministers. Saakashvili now finds former United National Movement (UNM) allies such as Alasania, former Speaker of the Parliament Burjanadze, and former Prime Minister Nogaideli in the opposition's ranks. As a result, the domestic political situation may just be starting to evolve into the kind of multi-party competitive political system that the USG has long advocated. End Summary and Comment. ALASANIA'S NEXT MOVE ¶3. (C) Rumors about Alasania's resignation have been swirling since early 2008. He downplayed that his announcement came as a surprise to President Saakashvili, saying that he and the President had discussed it during the UNGA summit in September. Alasania said he began to consider QUNGA summit in September. Alasania said he began to consider resigning his position in early May 2008, but then decided against making a move due to the August conflict. He postponed any announcement until after the NATO ministerial, not wanting to prejudice any potential decision on MAP. Alasania has been coy about his future intentions, refusing to confirm publicly his plans and promising only that he will provide details in the coming weeks when he returns to Tbilisi. Regardless, Alasania appears poised to enter the political arena, but may very well have not yet determined under what guise. Although he has been in discussions with David Gamkrelidze and David Usupashvili, he has made no public promises about his political future with their new coalition. Many of Alasania's confidants here in Tbilisi, like Chair of the Parliament's Foreign Policy Committee Lasha Zhvania, are concerned that joining an existing opposition group like Usupashvili's Republicans or Gamkrelidze's New Rigts will tarnish his image as a fresh face. Alasania appears to be carefully weighing whether joining them would result in a broad, credible opposition movement or simply serve to damage his own public stature. Other commentators have expressed the opinion that by naming Batu Kutelia as Minister of Defense, President Saakashvili is keeping the seat warm for Alasania in case he has a change of heart. TBILISI 00002268 002 OF 002 Other new opposition parties, including those of Burjanadze and Noghaideli, have also reportedly wooed Alasania to join their respective groups, but both see Alasania aQqdQ#Qr Minister. Vashadze is a dual national (Russian and Georgian) and a former Soviet diplomat known for having very good contacts in Russian political circles. The move could signal, at least superficially, an acknowledgment by Saakashvili that he intends to take a slightly different tack in approaching relations with Russia. However, the hasty nature and timing of the announcement seem to belie that naming Vashadze as FM has some greater significance. For his part, Vashadze says that Georgia's foreign policy will not change under his leadership. With Vashadze taking over at the MFA, the future of Giga Bokeria, Saakashivili insider and current Deputy Foreign Minister, is also unclear. When Vashadze moved from the MFA to Culture, he noted to us that he was relieved to have left MFA because it was impossible to work for a minister whose instructions were cou$QuQS#Cria will undoubtedly continue to have a key role in the government, where that will be is yet to be seen. Another familiar face, Nika Gvaramia, will take over the Ministry of Education having been replaced as the Minister of Justice last November. ¶5. (C) Batu Kutelia will move from Deputy to Minister at Defense, a position that he was rumored to be in line for prior to the conflict. The move leaves the door open for Alasania and possibly preempted a likely Parliamentary Commission recommendation to remove Davit Kezerashvili as Minister of Defense and to make other changes in Saakashvili's national security team. The Minister of Culture position remains vacant as Zurab Abashidze declined to take the job. President Saakashvili without apparently noticing the irony, commented that the most recent cabinet reshuffle would provide "new blood". Saakashvili-90QQir work and noted that not a single one was being dismissed for poor performance. ¶6. (C) Though many had publicly called for the Minister of Defense and Foreign Minister to be changed, opposition H.Qign. Conservative leader Zviad Dzidj)@sQokrgi Gugava (Labor) called the new Ministers the "Last of the Mohicans" and predicted the imminent resignation of President Saakashvili. Paata Davitaia, head of the temporary parliamentary commission, called for democratic changes for the entire political system and not just at a staff level. TEFFT