GEORGIA: DETAILED ACCOUNT OF SHOOTING NEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002203 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PL RU GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: DETAILED ACCOUNT OF SHOOTING NEAR PRESIDENTS REF: TBILISI 2193 Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C/NF) Summary and comment. A more comprehensive readout of the November 23 incident at the South Ossetian administrative boundary (see reftel) indicates the motorcade went right up to a combined Russian/Ossetian checkpoint on the administrative boundary of South Ossetia, and the presidents themselves approached the checkpoint on foot. The ride toward Akhalgori was not part of the original itinerary for the two presidents, and Polish officials did not know about it until the motorcade took the turn to the north. It appears that the Georgian side may have planned the side trip toward Akhalgori slightly ahead of time, but probably not very far in advance, and the Polish side was unaware of the plan at all. The shooting, however, turned what President Saakashvili probably conceived as a unique opportunity to underline the plight of Georgian sovereignty into something far more provocative than perhaps even he intended and could reinforce his image as impulsive. End summary and comment. Surprise! ¶2. (C/NF) The Polish Charge in Tbilisi (please strictly protect),who rode in one of the rear vehicles of the approximately 12-car motorcade on November 23, offered the following details of the evening's events in a November 25 meeting with PolOff. According to the original itinerary for President Kaczynski's visit to Georgia, President Saakashvili was scheduled to meet Kaczynski at the airport at 1700, then escort him from there to a new settlement for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Metekhi. For unknown reasons, Saakashvili did not meet Kaczynski at the airport, but rather joined him in the presidential limousine at the presidential administration building in Tbilisi. ¶3. (C/NF) Sometime after joining the Polish president, Saakashvili apparently proposed to Kaczynski a side trip up the road that leads to Akhalgor to see the checkpoints on the South Ossetian border. Polish officials, including the Charge and presidential security personnel, did not know about the change in plans until the motorcade took the turn to the north off the main highway that leads to Akhalgori. Meanwhile, a bus of about 15 journalists, which was the last car in the motorcade, was sent ahead of the entire motorcade to arrive at the destination ahead of time. Two security cars from the front of the motorcade joined the journalists' bus. Encounter at the Checkpoint ¶4. (C/NF) Because the Charge was near the back of the motorcade, he did not directly witness much of what happened next, but he received a readout from a Polish journalist who was on the bus. The Charge also noted that it was already dark by the time they reached the checkpoint, so it was difficult to see. After traveling at a very high rate of speed, the bus and two security cars arrived at a checkpoint on the South Ossetian boundary a minute or so before the rest of the motorcade. The checkpoint is directly north of Odzisi, on the administrative boundary; OSCE reports it is staffed by both Ossetian and Russian forces. The forces staffing the checkpoint (it is unclear whether they were Ossetian or Russian),upon seeing one bus full of people and two cars full of security personnel pull up, appeared to the Polish journalist to become agitated. The journalists were advised by the Georgian security personnel to stay on the Qadvised by the Georgian security personnel to stay on the bus, which they did. The Polish journalist also noted a few Mercedes parked along the right side of the road, pointed in the opposite direction, back the way they had come. (Embassy note: Based on previous presidential events we have observed, these vehicles were probably a security advance team. End note.) ¶5. (C/NF) A minute or so later, the main motorcade arrived, and the two presidents exited their vehicle and approached the checkpoint. The two sides exchanged words, although it is not clear to what extent the presidents themselves were involved in this exchange. Very soon after the presidents approached the checkpoint, however, three short bursts of automatic gunfire rang out to the northwest of the checkpoint. Altogether the shooting likely lasted on the order of ten seconds (not several minutes, as reported by some press). The Charge was at this point walking toward the checkpoint, but he was still several cars back. He estimated that the shots, although some distance away from him personally, could have been fairly close to the checkpoint, TBILISI 00002203 002 OF 002 and possibly as close as 100 feet, as reported in some press reports -- but he cautioned that the physical layout of the area, including hills to the east, made any estimates difficult. He also said the shooting was almost surely in the air, dismissing as highly unlikely any suggestion that it was targeted at anyone. ¶6. (C/NF) As soon as the shooting started, members of the motorcade, including the presidents, scrambled to return to their cars and leave the scene. The two presidents did not re-enter their limousine, however, which was still pointed north and would have had to turn around, but entered one of the Mercedes on the right side of the road, which was able to depart immediately. The Polish journalist, not the Charge (who was still too far back),witnessed this change of cars, but the Charge later saw the presidents emerge from a different car than the limousine when the motorcade finally arrived at Metekhi. All the cars turned around and headed south, back toward the main highway, and continued to their originally planned first stop at the settlement for IDPs. Comment: Misha Being Misha ¶7. (C/NF) The presence of cars at the checkpoint ahead of time indicates some amount of planning on the part of the Georgian side may have taken place. The fact that the press bus was sent ahead of the motorcade only after they departed Tbilisi, however, suggests that the side trip was not planned very far in advance. It is likely that, as has happened on previous occasions, Saakashvili was at the last moment seized with what seemed like a great idea: to give Kaczynski a graphic illustration of the ongoing insult to Georgia's territorial integrity -- and not to miss a great photo opportunity. From the Polish Charge's description of the shooting, it almost surely came from an area controlled by the Russians and Ossetians, so any suggestion of Georgian involvement in the shooting itself is fanciful. We will likely never know whether the forces at the checkpoint knew the exact identity of their visitors, but it would have been obvious that this was an important group of well-secured VIPs -- and still somebody pulled the trigger. Although it did not harm anyone, the shooting made clear how precarious the situation on the boundary still is, however, and could give the opposition -- not to mention the Poles -- fodder for criticism of the president. Politicians such as Nino Burjanadze have used similar incidents in the past to suggest that Saakashvili lacks restraint, and we would not be surprised if we soon heard similar accusations. TEFFT