GEORGIA: SHOOTING NEAR PRESIDENTIAL CONVOY

C O N F I D E N T I A L TBILISI 002193 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS PL RU GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: SHOOTING NEAR PRESIDENTIAL CONVOY Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary and comment. While observing Russian and Ossetian checkpoints on the edge of South Ossetia, Georgian President Saakashvili and Polish President Kaczynski heard gunfire from a seeming short distance away and quickly departed from the area. No one was injured. The motorcade was at Odzisi, the last town in undisputed Georgian territory on the road to Akhalgori, which is near both a Russian and an Ossetian checkpoint. The gunfire came from a spot somewhere between the two checkpoints. It is not clear whether the shots were in the air or aimed at anything in particular; it is also not clear that whoever was shooting knew the identity of the travelers. Both presidents disputed the suggestion that the shooting was staged, which also seems unlikely to post. The Polish Charge, who was riding in the motorcade, has promised additional details November 25, but we are unlikely ever to know for sure who pulled the trigger. End summary and comment. What do we know -- and not know -- about what happened? ¶2. (C) A Polish official traveling with the motorcade explained the following. Between 6 and 7 P.M. local time on Sunday, November 23, the motorcade reached the last Georgian checkpoint on the road to Akhalgori, which is just past the village of Odzisi. From that spot the first Russian checkpoint on the road is visible to the north, and a formerly Russian checkpoint that has been taken over by Ossetians is visible to the west, across the river on the outskirts of the village of Akhmaji. It was dark at the time of the motorcade's arrival, so little was visible. The travelers exited the cars and apparently sought permission to enter cross the checkpoint and enter South Ossetia. The two presidents exited the cars to discuss the situation. Shortly thereafter they heard gunfire coming from the northwest, but did not see any sign of the shots. They quickly entered the cars and departed. The motorcade continued to its next scheduled stop, a visit to a new settlement for internally displaced persons in Metekhi, near Kaspi. ¶3. (C) The Polish official noted several points that were not clear even to him, an eyewitness. The exact location of the firing was not clear. Northwest of the motorcade's location would most likely be on the west side of the river, in which case the shooters could have been Russian or Ossetian. It was also not clear whether the shots were in the air or directed at the motorcade (or some other target). Finally, it was by no means clear whether the shooters had any knowledge of the identity of the travelers. What are people saying about what happened? ¶4. (SBU) Some televised and other press reports suggested that the motorcade was actually fired upon. It is unlikely that anyone other than the shooters themselves knows this for sure. A staff member in the prime minister's office told post shortly after the incident that the shooters most likely did not know who was in the cars, while a government security official told an Embassy counterpart that he thought they did know. Later that evening, Polish President Lech Kaczynski himself said at a press conference that he was not sure whether shots were "fired into the air or where." Post has heard no credible reports of any impacts from bullets or other ammunition near the motorcade. ¶5. (SBU) One press report suggested that the shooting erupted Q5. (SBU) One press report suggested that the shooting erupted about 100 feet frm the motorcade. Although the Polish official was not sure how far away the shooting was, his inability to describe the shooting's location with much precision suggests it occurred from considerably farther away than 100 feet. The OSCE noted that the road is located in a valley, which effect on the sounds of gunshots and their echoes can make pinpointing the exact location of shots very difficult. ¶6. (SBU) At the press conference, a Polish journalist suggested to President Saakashvili that perhaps the whole incident was staged, pointing to the presence of Georgian journalists on the scene beforehand as suspicious. Saakashvili explained that no journalists were on the scene ahead of time, that the footage on television was taken by a staff cameraman who always accompanies the president. He also said he would never have put the Polish president's life in danger. Kaczynski also rejected the suggestion as "unserious." TEFFT