GEORGIA: ARRIVAL OF OSSETIAN FORCES WORSENS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 002111

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: ARRIVAL OF OSSETIAN FORCES WORSENS
PROBLEM IN PEREVI

REF: TBILISI 1988

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary and comment. Ossetian forces now control the
primary checkpoint south of the village of Perevi, Russian
forces have established a new checkpoint north of the
village, and as many as 200 villagers may have fled.
International organizations have been unable to gain access
to the village, however, and the situation on the ground
remains unclear. These new developments increase the
likelihood of provocation, make ethnic cleansing a real
possibility, and underscore an ongoing violation of the
cease-fire. Th EU Monitoring Mission considers Perevi a
"Mini-Akhalgori" and believes the EU should push back hard on
Russia and obtain withdrawal of the checkpoint before the
Nice Summit. End summary and comment.

THE OSSETIANS MOVE IN


2. (SBU) Perevi is an ethnically Georgian village with a
population of about 1,100 located along the western side of
the administrative boundary of South Ossetia (nearly straight
east from Sachkere). Russian forces established a checkpoint
just south of the village after the August conflict. On
every map known to post, from both the Soviet and post-Soviet
eras, the village lies outside the boundary, and both the EU
Monitoring Mission (EUMM) and the OSCE believe the village to
be outside South Ossetia. The location of the checkpoint is
somewhat more controversial, with some maps showing the
checkpoint location outside the boundary, while at least one
Soviet-era map suggests it could be right on or just inside
the boundary. Both the EUMM and the OSCE believe the
checkpoint is outside South Ossetia, however, and Russian
soldiers at the checkpoint have admitted as much to both
organizations. See reftel for additional background.


3. (SBU) On November 8, the EUMM and the OSCE observed
Ossetian forces largely replacing Russian forces at the
checkpoint. Although the Ossetians may have remained under
Russian command at first, the EUMM reported that the
checkpoint was entirely under Ossetian control by November

12. Neither mission has observed any provocative behavior by
the Ossetians at the checkpoint. The EUMM also reported that
Russian forces have established a new checkpoint north of
Perevi, near the village of Sinaguri, which may be inside
South Ossetia. No international monitors have been able to
visit that location.


4. (SBU) The Georgian Interior Ministry and press reports
indicate villagers have been intimidated by Ossetian forces,
such as by shooting in the air and drunken behavior. Both
sources also indicate some villagers, primarily women and
children, have fled the village; the Interior Ministry
estimates the total number at 200. Local schools have
reportedly closed. The Interior Ministry has also stated
publicly that Ossetian forces could be preparing to undertake
ethnic cleansing. Neither the EUMM nor the OSCE has seen
evidence of Ossetians moving into the village or of such
large numbers of villagers departing, but neither mission has
been allowed access to the village since November 8. Post is
not aware of any reports of violence in or near the village.


5. (SBU) Both the EUMM and the OSCE have been sending patrols
daily to Perevi since November 8. The trip takes over three
hours from the EUMM's nearest base in Gori, however, and over
four hours from the OSCE's headquarters in Tbilisi. In an
effort to gain a better sense of the situation, the EUMM
Qeffort to gain a better sense of the situation, the EUMM
began on November 10 to have patrols overnight in Sachkere.
This is the largest town of any size in the area, and it is
the likely destination for any villagers fleeing Perevi.
Having patrols based there allows the EUMM to watch for
evidence of such departures and to approach Perevi earlier
each day. As noted, neither mission has yet observed
evidence of large-scale departures.

STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS


6. (SBU) At first glance, Perevi and its environs would seem
to have little strategic value. Unlike Akhalgori, for
example, they are not located near a transportation route of
national significance (see reftel). On November 12, however,
the EUMM's Head of Mission, Hansjorg Haber, described the
situation to the Ambassador as a "Mini-Akhalgori," because
the circumstances raise similar concerns. Perevi does in
fact have some strategic value. The village sits on a road
that leads into South Ossetia, and the checkpoint to its
south sits at the juncture of two roads that both lead in.
According to the Interior Ministry, these roads provide the

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primary access for two valleys and several villages inside
South Ossetia, especially in winter: Jalabeti, Sinaguri along
the northern road, and Tbeti, Gvidzga, and Kardmani along the
southern road. Other roads leads to these villages from
within South Ossetia, but they are impassable in winter. It
would therefore be in the South Ossetian de facto
authorities' interest to maintain control over Perevi in
order to ensure access to the other villages year-round.
Haber echoed these issues in his description of the Russians'
interest in maintaining control of the area.

COMMENT: A SERIOUS CEASE-FIRE VIOLATION GETS WORSE


7. (SBU) The situation in Perevi represents a cease-fire
violation even more egregious than that in Akhalgori. Unlike
in Akhalgori, Russian forces have been maintaining a presence
outside the administrative boundary of South Ossetia, and now
they have facilitated an Ossetian presence there. The two
sets of forces also severely restrict access to a village
that is both ethnically Georgian and indisputably outside
South Ossetia. Now, with the arrival of Ossetian forces, the
likelihood of provocative acts from either side has increased
considerably, and a real possibility of ethnic cleansing has
emerged. Although the EUMM and OSCE are working hard to keep
tabs on the situation, international pressure will likely be
necessary to ensure compliance with the cease-fire and the
prevention of violent incidents or worse.
TEFFT