SAAKASHVILI LIKELY TO WIN (BUT NOT OVERWHELMINGLY)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000020 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR DAS BRYZA AND EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/04/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM GG SUBJECT: SAAKASHVILI LIKELY TO WIN (BUT NOT OVERWHELMINGLY) IN THE FIRST ROUND Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: As the country gears up for presidential elections on January 5, the polls are unreliable and all over the map. Those commissioned by the opposition show former president Saakashvili not gaining enough votes to obtain a first round victory; those commissioned by the ruling United National Movement (UNM) show just the opposite. Importantly, almost all the polls were conducted prior to the Government's December 24 and 25 release of tapes allegedly revealing a coup plot by presidential candidate and business tycoon Badri Patarkatsisvili. We believe these have turned the tide in Saakashvili's favor, as indicated by the only post-coup plot poll we have heard about from an UNM source. Still, we believe his margin of victory will be significantly less than it was for the local elections, where the UNM, with Saakashvili leading the charge, garnered 76 percent of the vote nationwide. This time, we believe, Saakashvili will garner enough votes (50 percent plus one) to win the election in the first round but his percentage will likely be in the 55-60 percent range. End summary. THE UNDECIDEDS WILL DECIDE IT -------------- ¶2. (C) As the country gears up for presidential elections on January 5, we offer our best guess on the results. The polls are unreliable and all over the map. Those commissioned by the opposition show former president Saakashvili not gaining enough to win a first round victory; those commissioned by the ruling party show just the opposite. The most interesting aspect of all the polls is their common denominator: a large number (some 25 percent) of undecided voters. The key to who wins this election will be whoever captures this vote. Although many assume that these votes would go to the opposition -- why else would not people declare their voting intention -- all but one of the polls were conducted prior to the Government's December 24 and 25 release of tapes allegedly revealing a coup plot by presidential candidate and business tycoon Badri Patarkatsisvili. We believe these have turned the tide in Saakashvili's favor, as most Georgians were shocked and revolted by an alleged plot to overthrow the government by force. This is borne out by the results of the one post-coup plot poll we know about from an UNM source. ¶3. (C) There are other factors that we believe will benefit Saakashvili on election day: the weakness of the other opposition candidates, the continuing popularity of Saakashvili in the regions, and the strong organizational advantage of the ruling UNM which has done more than any other party to advertise and get out the vote. A huge snow storm that hit the country today will also likely give an edge to Saakashvili and his party's superior organization. Still, the events of November have had a negative impact on Saakashvili's overall popularity. We believe that his margin of victory will be significantly less than it was for the local elections, where the UNM, with Saakashvili leading the charge, garnered 76 percent of the vote nationwide. This time, we believe, Saakashvili will garner enough votes (50 percent plus one) to win the election in the first round but his percentage will likely be in the 55-60 percent range. MONITORING REPORTS CRUCIAL TO PUBLIC OPINION - AND REACTION -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Public opinion, and more importantly, public reaction, to the election results will be largely dependent upon the reports of independent observers, including especially the OSCE's Election Observer Mission report. If the report says that the elections were fundamentally free and fair, we believe that the opposition will not be able to mobilize large numbers of people to take to the streets. However, if the report says that the election was not free and fair or did not represent the will of the people, then we could be in a different situation. We expect the report to state generally that the elections were "free and fair, but." On the positives, we expect the report to note that the elections were well administered, that it was the first competitive election in Georgian history, that the election registration was inclusive and that there were a wide variety of views shown on television. On the negatives, we expect the report to note a blurring of the use of administrative resources in the campaign, some cases of intimidation of voters, bias on the television in favor of Saakashvili, and the fact that the Central Election Commission voted along party lines. TBILISI 00000020 002 OF 002 OTHER OUTCOMES - ALL LESS CLEAR -------------- ¶5. (C) Any other outcome than a Saakashvili win that is considered representative of the will of the people is less clear. A Saakashvili loss in the first round could have one of two outcomes, either the opposition would rally together and in the win-lose atmosphere of Caucasian politics Saakashvili will be seen as weakened and potentially lose a second round vote or the public (with lots of pressure from ruling party enforcers) would ultimately come together behind Saakashvili. Either way, going to a second round would start a longer, and possibly protracted, period of uncertainty in Georgian politics. We believe that the public perception of the first round as well as the fast-changing events that characterize Georgian political life will have a big impact on who would win a second round, should one be required. It is simply to early to tell but Saakashvili would not be guaranteed a second round victory. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Ultimately, these elections will help Georgia deepen its democratic roots. We believe it is time for Georgia to stop moving from revolution to revolution and to have an election that peacefully transfers power or reinforces the leadership of the country. We think that most Georgians also want this too, as evidenced by the largely negative reaction to the release of the Patarkatsisvili tapes. There remains a small but vocal contingent, however, which is planning to call demonstrations no matter what the election result or the assessment of the international monitors. It is this factor that we will watch closely (and try to influence) as Georgians go to the polls January 5. TEFFT