DAS BRYZA MEETS CIVIL SOCIETY MEMBERS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 000204 SIPDIS USAID STATE FOR EUR DAS BRYZA SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUMKDEM GG SUBJECT: DAS BRYZA MEETS CIVIL SOCIETY MEMBERS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In a meeting with DAS Bryza and Ambassador, representatives of civil society discussed the problems of the Presidential election and what impact it would have on Saakashvili's second term. The group was divided on whether Saakashvili won in the first round. Many thought that a second round would have ensured Saakashvili's legitimacy and without it, he may be hard pressed to implement his initiatives with the new (and likely more divided) Parliament. They thought the opposition is whipping up Anti-American sentiments for its own means, since it is widely perceived that Saakashvili's government is supported by the U.S. administration. To counter this, they recommended that the U.S. should demonstrate that it supports the Georgian people and not a particular person or political party. Despite setbacks on November 7 and the imperfect election, all said the country has matured politically and Georgian society overall has emerged as a stronger democratic institution: Georgia is experiencing a competitive system for the first time, where one candidate or one party does not control everything. Respected NGO leader Alex Rondeli summed it up, saying that when we look back, we will assess that Georgian democracy had taken a big step forward-but he feared how Russia might take advantage of the situation during this time and advised of the need, especially now, for continued U.S. support. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) On January 18, DAS Bryza and Ambassador met with civil society representatives Alexander Rondeli (Georgian Foundation of Strategic and International Studies, GFSIS),Tamar Kekenadze (New Generation New Initiative-nGnI),Gia Nodia (Caucasus Institute), Shalva Pichkhadze (Georgia for NATO),Giorgi Chkheidze (Georgian Young Lawyers Association, GYLA),Eka Siradze (International Society for Fair Elections, ISFED),Tamar Karosanidze (Transparency International, TI),and Eka Kvesitadze (24 Hours) to talk about the presidential election and what impact it would have on Saakashvili's second term. Debate Over the Results -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The group was divided on the issue of whether Saakashvili had won an outright majority in the first round, although all agreed Saakashvili would have won in a second round. Some believed that even though Saakashvili would have won a second round, the process �0A;would have been better served had the election gone on to two rounds. Many thought a second round would have ensured Saakashvili's legitimacy and without it, he may be hard pressed to implement his initiatives with the new (and likely divided) Parliament. ISFED conducted a parallel turnout tabulation on election day at 394 Precinct Election Commissions. Based on this representative sample, ISFED determined that Saakashvili garnered 50.8% of the vote. ¶4. (SBU) The group attributed Saakashvili's high success rate in minority regions to the trend that minorities in Georgia typically vote for the incumbent president and in far away regions, like Javakheti, residents simply do not know other candidates. To illustrate, GFSIS's Rondeli said that Shalva Natelashvili, Labor Party, traveled briefly to Akhalkalaki to campaign and his message was, "Georgians in Tbilisi don't want Saakashvili, why would you here?" and promptly left. There continues to be a vacuum of information, which translates to votes for the incumbent. Concerns About the Process -------------- ¶5. (SBU) TI's Karosanidze assessed that the pre-election period was problematic due to reports of abuse of administrative resources and easy access to the media by the incumbent versus the other candidates. She characterized election day as satisfactory, even though procedural violations were observed. She and nGnI's Kekenadze both expressed concern about the problems seen after the close of the polls, especially including counting procedures of the red ballots (same day registrants). Chkheidze said that he was concerned at the lack of a transparent process to track complaints and indifference with which the courts had perfunctorily dismissed GYLA's 230 cases linked to election day violations. TI, GYLA, and ISFED representatives agreed and said in many instances their formal complaints were ignored by the precinct election commissions (PECs) and the district electoral commissions (DECs). GYLA alleged that in many instances, their concerns were not addressed at all, whether it be at the PEC, DEC or even through the court system. Chkheideze maintained that GYLA was less interested in who won than in the transparency of the tabulation results. He believed that "final result" of the election was still not clear. ¶6. (SBU) Comparing the elections with latest local elections of October 5, 2006, the group said that the latter were much better than presidential elections since there were fewer irregularities. However, all said in a more general sense that the presidential elections were better for Georgian democracy overall in that they were moving Georgia forward to a multi-party system. TBILISI 00000204 002 OF 002 The Ugly Rise of Anti-Americanism -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Nodia attributed the possible increase of Anti-American sentiments to the perception that Saakashvili's government is supported by the U.S. administration and the opposition may be whipping up these feelings for its own end. All stressed that the U.S. should demonstrate that it supports the Georgian people, and not a particular person or political group by investing in institutions and groups rather than individuals. What it Means for Georgian Democracy -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Rondeli said the past month's internal turmoil has turned Georgia into a more mature country with a stronger democratic society. While November 7 events were a misstep on Georgia's long road to NATO, Georgia's further development with a potentially multi-party parliament and stronger democratic institutions would work positively for Georgia's integration in the Euro-Atlantic community. He went on to say that Georgia has never known such a competitive political environment as has developed over the last months. Previously, there was principally one party but now multiple parties are evolving. He believed that when we look back, this period will have been a big step forward for Georgian democracy. Rondeli said this was a positive change, but relayed his concerns that Russia may take advantage of the situation, and advised of the need, especially now, for continued U.S. support. What it Means for the Second Term -------------- ¶9. (SBU) All agreed that the inclusion of more voices in government and Parliament would result in a slow down of reforms during Saakashvili's second term, but didn't see this as necessarily bad. They believed that the benefits of checks and balances in the leadership outweighed the risk of political paralysis-although they all worried how Russia might take advantage of the situation. ¶10. (U) DAS Bryza cleared this cable.