GEORGIA: IRI NATIONAL VOTER SURVEY: GEORGIANS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TBILISI 001987 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM RU GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: IRI NATIONAL VOTER SURVEY: GEORGIANS UNITED BEHIND SAAKASHVILI REF: TBILISI 437 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Kent D. Logsdon for reasons 1.4 (b) an d (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The latest USAID-funded International Republican Institute (IRI) poll, based on 1,500 surveys conducted from September 23 to October 1, showed that the August war with Russia dominated the national mood. IRI said the poll showed that Georgians believed that Russian aggression was an ongoing effort, and their government was not responsible for starting the war. President Saakashvili's performance during the war was viewed positively, and only nine percent supported a call for his resignation. Despite the war and economic pressures, the country remained optimistic. Slightly more people said the country is going in the right direction than did in February (reftel). Confidence in nearly all public institutions has increased, and petty corruption, according to the respondents, remained low. Georgians continue to value an opposition, dialogue, and the democratic process. Respondents approved the Christian-Democratic Movement's (CDM) decision to enter Parliament. Those parties that refused to enter Parliament lost influence. Georgians overwhelmingly expressed a desire for internal stability in the country and were strongly opposed to internal political instability. War and Russian aggression were people's biggest fears. Not surprisingly, regaining the separatist regions had surpassed job creation as a priorities for the government. Georgians rejected the concept of independence for Abkhazia and South Ossetia's and they believed the regions will again be part of Georgia, but only through peaceful means. Georgians supported Saakashvili's efforts to integrate Georgia in to NATO and EU membership. Those polled cited "electricity" and "roads" among the government's most significant achievements. The ruling National Movement (UNM) was regarded as the most capable political party in addressing people's problems, and Saakashvili's approval rating led all political figures in the poll. ¶2. (C) Comment: The poll results indicated a patriotic surge of support and solidarity for the country, its government, and institutions following the war and in the face of continuing Russian pressure. Strong support from the international community appears to have reassured the Georgian populace, and they continue to look to the West for support, security, and development. This poll suggests that the government has an opportunity to pursue its mandate for democratic reforms and economic growth, which would likely benefit the country long-term. More immediate influences on the national mood will be Russia's next actions and how winter progresses. Suprisingly few respondents raised free media or the need for more participatory democracy as priorities for the Government. IRI briefed the results of the poll to both Government officials and opposition politicians, both in and outside of the Government. The only part of the poll not released to political leaders is the "ballot test" of how many votes each political party would receive if a vote was held immediately; instead, each party received only its results for how well it polled with the public. End Summary. ¶3. (U) The International Republican Institute (IRI),in conjunction with The Gallup Organization, conducted a USAID-funded poll across Georgia from September 23 to October 1, 2008. 1500 adults (age 18 ) were randomly interviewed face-to-face, and the poll contains a margin of error of three percent or less. (Note: an electronic version of this Qthree percent or less. (Note: an electronic version of this poll has been sent to EUR/CARC. End note.) Confronting Russian Aggression ¶4. (SBU) Above all, IRI said the poll shows that Georgians believed the country was still at war against Russian aggression. They believed their government was not responsible for starting the war. These critical points explain Saakashvili's widespread support and the lack of support for the non-parliamentary opposition who have called for his resignatin. His performance during the war was seen positively by 77 percent of the population, and only nine percent of Georgians support calls for his resignation at this time. They believe this would play into Russia's goal of toppling Saakashvili's government. Optimism Despite Failures ¶5. (SBU) The war was seen as the government's biggest failure, leading ahead of losing the territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and the government crackdown on November 7 last year. 62 percent of people reported a worsening TBILISI 00001987 002 OF 003 economic picture as well. Still, the country remained optimistic about the future (76 percent reporting themselves optimistic versus 18 percent pessimistic). More people said the country was going in the right direction (47 percent) than did in February (41 percent). Confidence in Institutions Rose, Corruption Reported Low ¶6. (SBU) Confidence in nearly all public institutions has increased since February. The Georgian Orthodox Church remained atop the list (with a 92 percent viewing it favorably). Tied for top place was the Army. The police increased as well (84 percent citing confidence versus 77 percent in February). Public perceptions of the performance of both the army and police during the war was high. The Central Bank (62 percent down from 65) and Education system (56 down from 58) slipped only a few points from February. The media basically stayed the same with 72 percent viewing it favorably (compared to 73 in February). Reports of petty corruption remained very low, 96 percent of respondents say they had not had to pay a bribe for any government service or decision in the previous 12 months. Only 0.7 percent said they had been asked to pay a one-time bribe. Domestic Politics, Dialogue, and Internal Stability ¶7. (SBU) The democratic process remained important in Georgians' eyes. They expressed the desire for additional democratic development. 86 percent (up from 84) said an opposition is important to Georgia's governance. The same percentage wants to see dialogue between the opposition and the government. Georgians overwhelmingly wanted internal stability in the country. Only six percent said that internal political confrontation would be acceptable now. Respondents (67 percent versus 18 against) approved the CDM's decision to enter Parliament after the May election. Similarly, 60 percent opposed the United Opposition members' decision to not join Parliament, and only 19 percent supported it. Those parties that refused to enter Parliament (Labor, the New Rightists, Conservatives, United Opposition) have lost public confidence in their ability to solve problems. And the CDM is now viewed as the second-most recognizable opposition party (some had previously considered it pro-government) after the Labor Party (in February they were fifth). Separatist Regions More Important than Economy ¶8. (C) People were asked what should be the top priorities of the government. Regaining the separatist regions (60 percent as a first priority) surpassed creating jobs (22 percent), despite 62 percent of people saying the economic situation had worsened over the past two months. Integration into EU and NATO (15 percent) and implementation of reforms (3 percent) followed. The ruling National Movement (UNM) was seen by 40 percent of respondents as the most capable political party in addressing people's problems (it was 39 percent in February). 35 percent said they did not know which party was most capable. Although the CDM earned itself second place with 5 percent (below its 11 percent in February),this was ahead of the next closest opposition party -- Labor with only 2 percent confidence. (Comment: Again, this indicates that the CDM's constructive engagement and criticism in Parliament, the media, and the regions is paying dividends for the new party. End comment.) Fears Remain, Longing for Territories ¶9. (SBU) Resumption of war and Russian aggression top he list of people's fears, followed by the loss of Georgia's territorial integrity. Georgians (91 percent) said they Qterritorial integrity. Georgians (91 percent) said they would never accept Abkhazia's or South Ossetia's independence (only 4 percent said yes). However, respondents overwhelmingly said they supported reintegration of the separatist territories only via peaceful means. Government Credited with Gaining International Support ¶10. (SBU) Electricity and roads remained the government's biggest achievements, although gaining international support was a new mention. Support for NATO and EU membership was strong at 86 percent. A majority (54 percent) supported NATO military bases in Georgia, with 33 percent opposed. Poll responsdents overwhelmingly appreciated their country's external relations - Ukraine and the United States topped the list of favorable relationship ratings at 97 percent each. France and the EU both received 94 percent favorable ratings. Lithuania and Germany were 92 percent, Poland was 89 percent, Turkey 88 percent, Azerbaijan 86 percent, Armenia 65 TBILISI 00001987 003 OF 003 percent, and Iran 49 percent. Relations with Russia were viewed as "bad" by 97 percent of respondents. Political Leader Ratings ¶11. (C) The poll again tracked ratings of political leaders, asking the respondents to rate them favorably or unfavorably. Topping the list was President Saakashvili (75 percent favorable and 21 percent not). A surprising second was Public Defender/Ombudsman Sozar Subari (70 percent favorable, 15 percent unfavorable). As additioNEQQ=QAHwVQc>, CDM leader Giorgi Targamadze tied for third with 70 percent. In descending order of favorable approval ratings came the following: businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili (65), former Speaker Nino Burjanadze (63),PM Lado Gurgenidze (57), Tbilisi Mayor Gigi Ugulava (57),Irakli Okruashvili (56),and Giorgi Baramidze (53) and parliamentary Speaker David Bakradze (52). Most opposition members fell somewhat. Republicans Tina Khidasheli (51) and David Usupashvili (50), New Rightist David Gamkrelidze (49),Levan Gachechiladze (45),Koba Davitashvili (44),Kakha Kukava (43),and Shalva Natelashvili (33) all slipped from their February ratings. Some ministers improved, including FM Eka Tkeshelashvili (43),MOIA Vano Merabishvili (33),and Economic Minister Eka Sharashidze (31). CDM Vice Speaker Levan Vepkhvadze (18 percent favorable and 23 percent unfavorable) was largely unheard of (44 percent said they did not know the name). LOGSDON