EU MONITORS ARRIVE IN GEORGIA, PREPARE TO DEPLOY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 001810

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL MARR RU GG
SUBJECT: EU MONITORS ARRIVE IN GEORGIA, PREPARE TO DEPLOY

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C/NF) Summary and comment. At least 200 monitors will be
in Georgia by September 30 and will start work October 1.
The headquarters will be in Tbilisi, with satellite offices
in Poti (30-40 observers),Zugdidi and Gori (70 monitors
each) and a 25-member rapid-reaction force based in Tbilisi.
This unarmed civilian mission considers its mandate to be
"country-wide," to include Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and
will seek access to those regions. The observers will wear
"EU-blue" berets and armbands, have the same diplomatic
status as OSCE observers, and maintain primary contact with
the Georgian Interior Ministry. Although the EU has done
impressive work to establish a mission of this magnitude by
the October 1 deadline, many questions remain about the scope
of the mission's activities and its coordination with the
other monitoring missions (UNOMIG and OSCE) on the ground.
The mission will have achieved a major goal if Russian forces
do depart position in Georgia proper by October 10 as pledged
in the Sarkozy-Medvedev plan, and its presence can send an
important political message to the international community
and investors, but we will need to manage international
perceptions carefully if the EU monitors are blocked from
Abkhazia and South Ossetia. End summary and comment.

THE EU MISSION: NUTS AND BOLTS


2. (C/NF) A newly arrived political advisor, one of three for
the new EU mission, provided post with an update on the
deployment of the mission on September 29. In accordance
with the September 8 Sarkozy-Medvedev agreement, 22 of 27 EU
member states have provided more than 200 monitors, along
with over 100 support staff. The monitors began arriving
over the past few days and will all be on the ground by
September 30, to start monitoring activities October 1. The
mission headquarters will be in Tbilisi; currently co-located
with the OSCE headquarters, the EU mission is searching for a
permanent building. The monitors who have already arrived
are currently receiving training at a resort in Batalevi,
near Dusheti, but will deploy to their Poti, Zugdidi and Gori
postings by October 1. EU staff are still working on finding
them suitable accommodations. The monitors will have the
same diplomatic status as OSCE monitors; they will have no
standard uniform, but will wear "EU-blue" berets and armbands.


3. (C/NF) A detailed deployment plan has not yet been
established, but the monitors will cover sections of Georgia
corresponding to their geographic location. The 25-member
rapid reaction force will be based in Tbilisi but will be
ready to travel to any location in the country as needed.
The mission considers its mandate "country-wide" and intends
to "insist" on access to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. As a
civilian, unarmed mission, the monitors will not be in a
position to apply anything but diplomatic pressure to gain
that access, but mission staff told post the monitors would
persistently seek access even if refused.


4. (C/NF) EU staff and Interior Ministry sources both told
post the Ministry would be the mission's primary government
contact, although Foreign Ministry sources suggested other
agencies would be involved as well, including the Ministry
for Reintegration. The Interior Ministry expressed some
concern that the monitors would be relying heavily on
Georgian police for security, because their only protection
would be armored vehicles. At a September 25 German
Embassy-hosted meeting with EU mission head Ambassador Haber,
the Ambassador was impressed by Haber's experience in the
region and willingness to work closely with his colleagues on
the ground here in Tbilisi. Haber also promised to be
accessible to us and to other missions in Tbilisi in
providing information about observer activities on the ground
and reports of specific incidents.

DEPLOYMENT AND COORDINATION PLAN STILL HAZY


5. (C/NF) OSCE sources suggested to post that there has not
been much coordination of the EU mission's activities with
the two other international monitoring missions in Georgia
(the OSCE itself and UNOMIG). The OSCE briefed elements of
the EU mission on September 27 about their own activities,
and it seemed to the OSCE that the EU still had some work to
do in establishing a plan of its own, not to mention
coordinating that plan with others. The Interior Ministry
was also unsure about what the EU's day-to-day activities
would be. The EU itself plans a briefing for the diplomatic
community on October 2 and may have more detailed information
at that time. The Interior Ministry expressed the hope that
the mission would provide extra support for the areas near
the Enguri Dam and immediately south of Tskhinvali, because
it is concerned about Russian intentions regarding the power
generated by the dam and about the potential for Russian

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mischief south of South Ossetia. Although UNOMIG and OSCE
monitors already cover these areas to some extent, the
Ministry seemed to think that an expanded international
presence in those particular areas would be very helpful.

COMMENT: THE MONITORS WILL NEED MONITORING


6. (C/NF) The major question facing the EU mission is whether
it will gain access to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Although
the details of the mission's day-to-day routine will
eventually be worked out, its ability to gather information
about the situation throughout Georgia will clearly depend on
its physical access. If the EU mission is ultimately not
able to enter Abkhazia and South Ossetia, it will be
extremely important to coordinate closely with UNOMIG and the
OSCE. This issue will become more important if and when the
OSCE deploys 80 additional monitors. In the long run,
however, having 200 additional pairs of eyes on the ground
will probably reduce the likelihood of provocative incidents
along the administrative boundaries and any escalation from
incidents that do occur.


7. (C/NF) The mission's rapid deployment may indeed achieve
the withdrawal of Russian forces from undisputed Georgian
territory, which itself would be an important accomplishment.
In addition, as the Interior Ministry pointed out, its
presence in Georgia might help reassure the international
community, and investors in particular, that Georgia is
getting back to a normal, stable state. Nevertheless, if the
mission's 200 monitors find themselves barred from crossing
the two de facto borders with no opportunity to enter, we
will need to continue to reinforce the message -- and to
encourage our European colleagues to do the same -- that the
lack of access reflects Russian intransigence, not a
fundamentally changed situation on the ground. End comment.
TEFFT