GEORGIA: SITREP 20: RUSSIA'S RECOGNITION SOBERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 001474 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC AND TASKFORCE-1 E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM RU GG SUBJECT: GEORGIA: SITREP 20: RUSSIA'S RECOGNITION SOBERS SAAKASHVILI Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. President Saakashvili sought to reassure the nation in an upbeat televised speech, but Russia's recognition of the breakaway regions has increased the pressure on the president and the nation. The situation in Akhalgori seems to have been resolved for the moment with Georgian troops backing away, but reports continue to surface of continuing looting and forced departures in villages in South Ossetia, and the international community has little means to verify them. Local businesses will likely suffer in the short term, but remain hopeful about an eventual recovery. Georgian officials report damage to USG-provided border security equipment and facilities in the west. Georgia's former administration head in South Ossetia Sanakoyev applied for a U.S. official visa with plans to visit New York and Washington beginning August 30. End Summary. SAAKASHVILI ADDRESSES THE NATION -------------- ¶2. (U) In an August 26 televised speech, President Saakashvili declared Russia's recognition of the breakaway regions illegal and insisted Georgia would respond with calm, unity, and development, and would ultimately be stronger as a result. He said that Russia had "failed to bring Georgia to its knees through military aggression, failed to break our people, expel Georgia's government, undermine Georgia's fundamental values and make Georgia disappear from the map." Citing the sharp international condemnation of Russia's decision, Saakashavili repeated his appeals to the international community for support, suggesting that Georgia's territorial integrity is more than a bilateral issue between Georgia and Russia, but a question of fundamental importance for the "civilized" world. ¶3. (C) In an apparent effort to project an image of calm to his people, Saakashvili adopted a positive and reassuring tone in the speech that came across to some observers as artificially optimistic. He may have been trying to compensate for his own concerns, which Embassy officers observed in a meeting with him earlier in the day, shortly after the news of Russia's recognition had been announced. Instead of projecting his usual extreme self-confidence, Saakashvili seemed subdued and more realistic in the meeting. He did not confidently predict -- as he has in recent days -- that Georgia will survive the crisis, admitting quite frankly that his government and the Georgian economy faced ruin without international assistance. AKHALGORI IS CALM, BUT PROBLEMS ELSEWHERE -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The OSCE reported that the Ossetian and Georgian sides have left the vicinity of Akhalgori, and life has returned somewhat to normal. OSCE observers noted that Russian forces have set up new checkpoints south of Akhalgori to prevent Georgian forces from moving back into Akhalgori and to prevent Ossetian forces from moving further south through Akhalgori toward other villages. The OSCE observed full freedom of movement and people returning to work. As far as OSCE can determine, however, no one is currently exercising normal administrative control in Akhalgori. In addition, many ethnic Georgian residents -- in particular young people -- are not spending the night in Akhalgori, but rather commuting in to work during the day while spending the night in areas farther south. ¶5. (SBU) The press reports increased aggression by Ossetian forces, including instances of looting and forced departures, since Russia's announcement of recognition, including in Shertuli in the Gori region and other villages. The OSCE visited several checkpoints along the outer line of Russian control, but was advised not to go further north, where Russian forces could not guarantee their safety. The OSCE will have additional discussions with the Russians regarding travel further north on August 28. USG travelers moving north from Gori were stopped at the outer line of Russian checkpoints and not allowed to travel further. ¶6. (SBU) The press reports both South Ossetia and Abkhazia have begun negotiating military agreements with Russia. LOCAL BUSINESSES TAKE A HIT -------------- ¶7. (SBU) An informal survey of local members of the American Chamber of Commerce produced the following information: -- Several companies had employees called up as reservists, TBILISI 00001474 002 OF 002 with one employee being injured and a few others displaced. -- Little damage to assets was reported, except for banks in Senaki and Gori. -- Many business deals and transactions have been postponed and in some cases canceled, with significant loss of revenue predicted in the short term. -- Many companies have adopted a "wait-and-see" attitude, with hope for normalization soon (Note: This survey was conducted before Russia recognized the breakaway regions). -- The AmCham sees its role as continuing to support the community, to encourage FDI, to promote investors' confidence, and to avoid politics, but not to forget property rights and judiciary concerns. GEORGIA'S BORDER CONTROL FACILITIES SUFFER -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Georgian Coast Guard (GCG) officials told the Embassy that Russian forces continue to remove GCG equipment and supplies from its post at Poti, although the full extent of the losses awaits a formal assessment. Three GCG vessels were sunk, and the government has requested USG assistance with salvage efforts; another high-speed cutter donated by the UK was reportedly taken by the Russians. The radar station at Anaklia was also bombed and looted, but the Georgian Border Police (GBP) reported that the main buildings provided by the Georgia Border Security and Law Enforcement program are still standing at Poti and Anaklia, although they will need substantial repairs. The GBP reported their newly opened regional office in upper Abkhazia was lost. The USG-funded radar stations at Chakvi and Supsa, south of Poti, have not suffered any damage. RECOVERY AND ASSISTANCE EFFORTS -------------- ¶9. (U) The press reported that rail movements between east and west Georgia have been restored. Only cargo shipments will be allowed for the first week, with passenger traffic to resume September 1. ¶10. (SBU) The USS Dallas arrived in Batumi and docked portside August 27 with another shipload of humanitarian assistance. VISITORS -------------- ¶11. (SBU) The economic delegation completes its work today. TDA Director Walther signed a grant agreement to fund a feasibility study on the potential for developing coal methane gas reserves as an alternate energy resource, and U/S Jeffrey provided a series of press appearances, concluding with a final press conference. Senator Corker arrives in the evening August 29 for a full day of meetings August 30; Rep. Joe Donnelly (formerly led by Rep. Hunter) will lead a four-member delegation here on September 1. Meanwhile the OVP advance team has arrived and begun its preparations. TEFFT