GEORGIA: SITREP 19: RESPONDING TO MEDVEDEV'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TBILISI 001470

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC AND TASKFORCE-1

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM RU GG
SUBJECT: GEORGIA: SITREP 19: RESPONDING TO MEDVEDEV'S
ANNOUNCEMENT

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN F. TEFFT FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary. Tbilisi is formulating its official
response to Russian President Medvedev's announcement that
Russia would recognize the breakaway republics of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia and per DFM Vashadze, is looking for a
strong reaction from the West (more details to be provided
septel). Georgia has broken relations with Russia, and the
Russian Embassy in Tbilisi is reportedly closed. Although no
shots were fired overnight, the situation in Akhalgori
remains tense. The Georgians are accusing the South
Ossetians of kicking ethnic Georgians out of Megvrekisi
village near Tskhinvali, and have moved Georgian police away
from Akhalgori since they believe this village is next. The
government has made a public and private push to energize the
country and the international community to provide
humanitarian aid quickly. End Summary.

AKHALGORI UPDATE
--------------


2. (C) On August 26, the OSCE reported the Ossetian and
Georgian sides met in negotiations regarding Akhalgori. The
Georgian side proposed a withdrawal of Ossetian forces from
Zemo-Boli (on the outskirts of Akhalgori),to be followed by
a withdrawal of Georgian police forces from Mosabruni (two
kilometers from Akhalgori). A tentative agreement on the
above withdrawals was struck. In addition, South Ossetians
promised to stop all looting in the area. (Note: The OSCE
IMOs have been inside Akhalgori on August 25 and 26. They
have not yet confirmed looting has taken place in the town.
End note.) Georgian police will patrol up to near Akhalgori.
The OSCE noted that such an arrangement, if the two sides
maintain it, leaves a power vacuum in Akhalgori that either
side could be tempted to try to fill. Still, the OSCE noted
the agreement shows some progress. In a statement to the
press, National Security Council Secretary Kakha Lomaia said
that Georgia is abiding by the terms of the cease-fire, but
"would be forced to give . . . a proper response" if
provoked. Later in the day, the Georgian MFA reported to us
that Georgian police have retreated from around Akhalgori
because they believe South Ossetians will move against ethnic
Georgians soon and they want to avoid a conflict.

REACTING TO RUSSIAN RECOGNITION
--------------


3. (U) The press reports President Saakashvili commented that
Russia is trying to legalize its occupation, adding "This is
a challenge to the whole world. Such provocations will
ultimately fail, but for them to fail, we have to be very
mobilized; and Georgia will not be able to win this war
alone." MPs Zhvania and Darchiashvili made similar
statements; opposition New Rightists leader Gamkrelidze urged
Georgia to react strongly to recognition, including severing
all diplomatic ties with Russia. Secretary Lomaia suggested
that a decision by the Russian government to extend
recognition would carry no legal weight, but that its
political consequences for Russia would be serious: Russia
would find itself even more isolated and less stable in the
face of its 80 autonomous entities. The Georgian patriarch
released a statement urging Russia not to extend recognition,
echoing the concern with Russia's own separatist difficulties.

POLITICAL FALLOUT
--------------


4. (U) Gamkrelidze told the press he would end his moratorium
on criticizing the government on September 8, the same day
Parliament's "state of war" declaration expires. Opposition
People's Party leader Davitashvili proposed the establishment
of a coalition government of national conciliation, which
would work on de-occupation of the country and restoration of
its territorial integrity. Labor Party leader Natelashvili
(who was elected to Parliament but who has not yet taken a
seat) criticized Saakashvili for slandering the Labor Party
instead of protecting the country.

HUMANITARIAN AID BECOMES FOCUS
--------------


5. (C) Government sources indicate that assisting those
disrupted by the war, including both Internally Displaced
Persons (IDPs) and those that remained in villages, has
become a key focus. The government held a meeting in Gori to
highlight its reconstruction efforts. While in Gori,
President Saakashvili emphasized the importance of providing
shelter before winter. State Minister for Reintegration
Yakobashvili sent a letter to the Ambassador requesting that
the U.S. "employ all means available to you to pressure the

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Russian side" to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid,
arguing that Russia has not fulfilled its obligations under
point 3 of the cease-fire agreement. In a meeting with Sen.
Lugar, Yakobashvili explained that the resettlement of IDPs
was the government's first objective in its overall response
to the crisis. Sasha Gakharia, Deputy Minister, Ministry of
Refugees and Accommodation, told Poloff that many IDPs who
are from Gori and villages nearby want to return to Gori as
this is where their houses are located. MP Subeliani has
recently asked IDPs from the Gori area to return so as to be
nearby when assessment teams come to Gori. For those who are
living in collective centers, the GoG has organized buses,
but for now it is up to IDPs to make the decision as to
whether they wish to return to Gori. IDPs from Kodori Gorge
are principally in Tbilisi and there are no indications that
they intend to relocate to Gori.

U.S. ASSISTANCE VESSELS
--------------


6. (C) We are awaiting an interagency decision regarding
whether or not the next U.S. ship scheduled to provide
humanitarian aid to Georgia will offload at Poti or Batumi.
If the ship docks at Poti, its cargo would go by truck south
to Batumi before sending it east on the major west-east
highway toward Tbilisi. This plan would send a strong signal
on the operability of the Poti port without directly
challenging the Russians, whose checkpoints are outside Poti
and not at the port itself.

PRISONER EXCHANGE
--------------


7. (U) The press reported the Georgians released three
military detainees on August 25. There continues to be no
additional information regarding reports of Georgian hostages
in the Tskhinvali region.

VISITORS
--------------


8. (SBU) The economic delegation led by U/S Jeffrey
continues its work. The group is tentatively planning to
travel A press conference is scheduled for August 27 just
prior to departure. Presidential candidate John McCain's
wife Cindy is in Tbilisi August 26. A delegation led by Rep.
Joe Donnelly (formerly led by Rep. Hunter) will visit Tbilisi
September 1. H is working with CODEL Poe to combine
Congressman Poe's September 1 visit with CODEL Donnelly.
TEFFT