DAS BRYZA MEETS WITH OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TBILISI 000143

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA, AND EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM GG RU
SUBJECT: DAS BRYZA MEETS WITH OPPOSITION

REF: TBILISI 88

Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: On January 19, EUR DAS Matt Bryza and
Ambassador Tefft met with key leaders of the United National
Council of Opposition (UNC). The UNC's main contention was
that Mikheil Saakashvili did not receive 50 percent of the
vote in the January 5 election. Consequently, they said they
and their supporters did not recognize Saakashvili as the
legitimate President. The UNC alleged the election was
falsified through the alteration of election protocols after
the polls closed. Although they offered no proof, they
contended that this was widely known and that the people now
trust neither Saakashvili nor the system. The UNC also
criticized the U.S. for statements which they believed
legitimized an illegitimate win. Although they purported to
be against revolution, each leader underscored the
seriousness of the current situation. The leaders alleged a
rise in anti-Americanism, which they attributed to perceived
American support for the ruling party. Bryza responded that
the U.S. carefully reviewed the findings from its own
observation teams, compared them with others from the
international community, and only then did President Bush
call Saakashvili to congratulate him on his election. Bryza
countered that the anti-Americanism was also being fueled by
some members of the opposition.


2. (C) After the meeting, Bryza met separately with
Usupashvili. Usupashvili underscored the seriousness of the
situation facing Saakashvili and his United National Movement
party (UNM). He said the UNC is also working through
internal dissension, trying to move forward for the
parliamentary elections. Bryza then met with presidential
candidate and New Rightists (NR) Party Chairman, MP David
Gamkrelidze (not a UNC member.) Gamkrelidze echoed UNC
concerns regarding Saakashvili's "illegitimate victory" and
unjust UNM control of public institutions. His NR party is
joining the UNC in protesting the election results. All
opposition leaders agreed that truly fair parliamentary
elections are the only way out of the current situation. End
Summary.

-------------- --------------
United Opposition Refuses to Recognize Saakashvili Win
-------------- --------------


3. (C) On January 19, EUR DAS Matt Bryza and Ambassador Tefft
met with key leaders of the United National Council of
Opposition (UNC),a bloc of eight opposition parties. UNC
presidential candidate Levan Gachechiladze, Republican Party
Chairman David Usupashvili, Georgia's Way Leader Salome
Zourabichvili, and Conservative MP Kakha Kukava represented
the UNC. Gachechiladze alleged that Saakashvili did not win
over 50 percent of the vote. He contended that the election
was falsified through the alteration of election protocols
after the polls closed. Although the opposition leaders
offered no proof, they contended that this was widely known
and that the people now trust neither Saakashvili nor the
system.

--------------
Private Negotiations, Public Protests
--------------


4. (C) Gachechiladze turned to Usupashvili on how the UNC is
responding to the situation. Usupashvili said he is leading
talks with Speaker of Parliament Nino Burjanadze. He said
they could not negotiate directly with Saakashvili until
after the Spring parliamentary elections because of the
public mistrust. He said the opposition's concerns are
focused on the Central Election Commission (CEC),Georgian
Public Broadcaster (GPB),the courts, and oversight of
police. He said the opposition believes that Saakashvili's
control of these public institutions allowed him to take the
election, and contends that real opposition influence (as
opposed to "parity") in each of these public institutions is
critical to restore public trust in government. Usupashvili
said the current imbalance of power in the country cannot be
corrected without such influence.


5. (C) At the same time, Gachechiladze said the UNC is
continuing public protests against Saakashvili while they
formulate their platform for the parliamentary election.
(Note: An UNC protest was held on January 20 immediately
after the Presidential Inauguration ceremony. End note.)
Gachechiladze expressed concern about being able to rein in
public fervor against Saakashvili. Usupashvili said the UNC
hopes to present good solutions to the public in the coming
weeks.


TBILISI 00000143 002 OF 004


--------------
Fair Elections Only Solution
--------------


6. (C) The four opposition leaders agreed that only one
solution exists out of the current gridlock. First, the USG
and European partners must hold Saakashvili and the UNM
accountable to any signed agreement resulting from
negotiations with Burjanadze. Second, the coming
parliamentary election must be truly fair. This means the
UNM must be willing to accept defeat at the polls, should
that happen.


7. (C) None of the opposition leaders, however, were
convinced that Saakashvili would allow a UNM parliamentary
loss. They gloomily predicted open revolt should Saakashvili
and the UNM refuse to accept possible defeat and "take the
election" through extraordinary means.

--------------
DAS Bryza Looks Ahead
--------------


8. (C) DAS Bryza and the Ambassador reiterated that the
Embassy looked very hard at the election results before the
USG acknowledged Saakashvili had won. More than a week
passed between election day and President Bush's
congratulatory call. They said the opposition must
acknowledge Saakashvili's legitimacy at some point. Bryza
said that such a thin victory on January 5 was a strong
message to Saakashvili (on the need to reconnect with civil
society and common citizens) and Georgia's neighbors (on the
legitimacy of a presidential victory with 52 percent rather
than 65 or 85 percent of the vote.) Bryza also pointed out
that despite the opposition's claims, he never made a
statement legitimizing the January 5 election. Rather, he
was careful to note that "if the January 5 election is
determined to have been free and fair, then all Georgians
will have an obligation to honor the will of the Georgian
voter, whether they like the results or not. But if the
election is determined to have been neither free nor fair,
then Georgia would find itself in a situation analogous to
that of November 2003." Zourabichvili contended the media
presented his interview in a manner that led Georgians to
believe Bryza supported a Saakashvili win. Bryza responded
that he could not control the media, and that the opposition
themselves (i.e. with their "Bryza Museum of Lies" promoted
by MP Zviad Dzidziguri) also shared some responsibility for
driving anti-American sentiment. (Note: Following the
meeting with Bryza, Zourabichvili castigated the Georgian
media for twisting Bryza's previous comments on the election
out of context. End Note.)


9. (C) Bryza agreed with the group that "much better"
parliamentary elections are necessary and that the USG will
strongly support such a push with the GOG. Bryza pointed out
that he and the Embassy had been working very hard to restore
Imedi TV and some balance in Georgia's television coverage.
He further noted the USG's longstanding message to
Saakashvili that to strengthen democracy, the GOG needed to
cultivate - not just tolerate - a loyal political opposition.
Bryza also said that Membership Action Plan (MAP) for
Georgia in NATO is unlikely to be awarded at the Bucharest
Summit. Bryza stated that truly fair parliamentary elections
are key to putting Georgia back on track for MAP.

-------------- --------------
Usupashvili: Fractures in UNC; Saakashvili Under Pressure
-------------- --------------


10. (C) In a following, private meeting, Usupashvili told DAS
Bryza that UNC member Koba Davitashvili and his People's
Party would protest at the Embassy on January 22 (reftel).
Usupashvili said Davitashvili ignored the will of the rest of
the UNC, despite a unanimous vote against him. Usupashvili
stressed that the UNC does not support any anti-American
protests. He said this public division of the UNC is bad for
its responsible members. Bryza thanked Usupashvili for the
advance notice of the protest at the Embassy and acknowledged
Davitashvili's right to protest in a free democracy.


11. (C) Usupashvili cautioned that there is also division and
pressure within the UNM. He assessed that Saakashvili did
not expect to lose Kakheti or Tbilisi. Usupashvili said
Saakashvili had to rely on populist pledges on social
security and other welfare programs to secure 53 percent of
the vote. Usupashvili believed that such promises could not
be kept. Usupashvili said it would help if Burjanadze were
stronger, as she could then exert greater influence via
Parliament and in the UNM. Due to these conflicting
obligations, Usupashvili thought Saakashvili may fear an

TBILISI 00000143 003 OF 004


opposition victory in the next election will mean his end.
If Saakashvili reacts, by cracking down on the opposition for
example, then it could turn bad in the country. Usupashvili
said everyone in the UNC is against recognizing Saakashvili
as the president. However, he added that civil disobedience
is still being debated. Usupashvili said he is ready to do
whatever he can to help temper the opposition's response.
"But it's not easy," he said. "We are trying to calm people
down."


12. (C) Compounding matters, Usupashvili said that some in
the UNM oppose ceding any influence at all in the CEC, GPB,
courts, or police to the opposition. Usupashvili said the
people will not trust another election without some oversight
of the police. He was unsure whether the public trust can be
restored at all under Saakashvili. He thought that even if
significant personnel changes were made within the Justice
Ministry and Supreme Court it may not be enough.


13. (C) Usupashvili said his own Republican Party will have a
committee meeting in two weeks to prepare language and ideas
for the coming election. Usupashvili is hoping that the UNC
can also move forward to the parliamentary elections. He
pointed out that truly fair parliamentary elections were his
party's initial demand last year. He thought that the people
would not tolerate another perceived unfair election. DAS
Bryza acknowledged the division in society, but agreed with
Usupashvili that Georgia needs an election now, not a fight.

--------------
Gamkrelidze: Same Fears, Same Problems
--------------


14. (C) MP Gamkrelidze also met DAS Bryza privately on
January 19. He echoed that the election may have restored
Saakashvili's international legitimacy, but it had not
restored his legitimacy with the Georgian public. He said
that most people in the cities don't think Saakashvili won.
Gamkrelidze said he was unsure whether he could convince his
supporters that the next elections will be fair.


15. (C) Gamkrelidze appealed to Bryza to support "real
elections" and not just "international standards."
Gamkrelidze said that the opposition must have influence on
policy in the CEC, GPB, and the judiciary. He suggested that
possibly a new Chief Justice of the Supreme Court or High
Council of Justice could help restore people's trust in their
votes. Gamkrelidze also suggested in a meeting to Burjanadze
that it might help if Gachechiladze could run in a direct
election for Tbilisi Mayor. The Ambassador said Saakashvili
had already refused this idea. Gamkrelidze said trouble
would ensue unless some balance of power is restored in the
government.


16. (C) Gamkrelidze said he is unsure as to what the NR will
do regarding the parliamentary elections, whether or not, for
example, NR may combine with another party. Gamkrelidze said
that the NR is supporting the UNC in its public protests, but
will continue to abide by its long-standing commitment to
non-violence. His party also will not support any
anti-American protests. DAS Bryza noted that Gamkrelidze has
always followed his own lead, and that this may be a good
time to continue doing so. If the situation continues,
Gamkrelidze said it would be ripe for exploitation by a
revolutionary. He said former Defense Minister Irakli
Okruashvili (now facing extradition in France) was hoping to
exploit just such a situation.


17. (C) Gamkrelidze said that Saakashvili brought about the
current situation. Because Saakashvili continually weakened
the reasonable opposition, he said, now only vocal,
aggressive voices are heard. DAS Bryza agreed this was
exactly his point. Bryza said he would make the same point
to the government. Bryza underscored the importance of the
parliamentary election to Georgia's future. Gamkrelidze
responded that Saakashvili must understand and accept that if
parliamentary elections are truly fair, he won't get a
majority.

--------------
Comment
--------------


18. (C) Comment: Usupashvili and Gamkrelidze were both
apologetic for the recent public vilification directed toward
DAS Bryza. Both were somber and serious in their analysis of
the current situation as quite dangerous. Usupashvili has
advised the Ambassador that he is unsure how long the UNC can
hold together. Still, the UNC and Gamkrelidze independently
agreed on the mechanisms (CEC, TV, Courts, and Police) they
believe the UNM used to control the election outcome.

TBILISI 00000143 004 OF 004


Equally noticeable was the opposition's agreement that
"everything" is dependent on the parliamentary elections
being truly fair. If they are not, all parties predicted
worse trouble will come. End comment.


19. (U) DAS Bryza has cleared this cable.
TEFFT