GEORGIANS LOOKING TO WEST FOR HELP, OPPOSITION AND

UNCLAS TBILISI 001350 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC, TASKFORCE-1 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL GG SUBJECT: GEORGIANS LOOKING TO WEST FOR HELP, OPPOSITION AND CIVIL SOCIETY SAY ¶1. (SBU) Post has reached out to notable opinion leaders in Georgia and found a common theme from all -- threats from Russia have unified the Georgian political class. Most have reported that Georgians are feeling terrorized by indiscriminate Russian bombing of Georgian cities, particularly Russian targeting of civilian residential buildings. They are calling on the West, and the United States in particular, to take an active role in preserving an independent Georgia. Nino Burjanadze, former Speaker of Parliament -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Burjanadze called the Ambassador on August 9 to express her grave concern about Russian actions. She told us that ordinary citizens are frightened for their safety. She urged the Ambassador to mobilize resources to assist these citizens. Burjanadze continues to be in touch, clearly shocked by the willingness of the Russians to use force against Georgia and Georgians. Alex Rondeli, GFSIS -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Ambassador Alexander Rondeli, President, Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, opined to Poloff August 9 that ordinary Georgians are feeling patriotic, and support for Saakashvili is high. He believed that ordinary Georgians expect someone to come and save them from the Russians, and they do not understand that they may have to help themselves. Public statements of support may be one thing, but sending in the green berets is quite another, he said. He offered that in the event of Georgian defeat, the "fifth column" (ordinary citizens) would emerge from their basements, criticizing the West for not helping them. ¶4. (SBU) He anticipated the Russians would bring additional forces to trounce Georgia, "liberate" Tskhinvali, and make a victorious march towards Gori. Rondeli described the typical Russian modus operandi as crushing the opponent by overwhelming force, creating panic amongst the population, and using the media as an effective propaganda tool to do so. He was angered by the media, and in particular, Euronews, as portraying Georgia as the aggressor, and was disappointed by statement such as that from the British PermRep to the U.N. who told the BBC "that the situation is uncertain." on August ¶9. He said that Russians are sensitive to media propaganda targeted against them and he encouraged the West to use the media more effectively. (Comment: Post is now watching to see if Rondeli's otherwise accurate forecast occurs, as Russian troops mass above Gori. End comment.) David Usupashvili, Republican Party -------------- ¶5. (SBU) On August 8, Usupashvili issued a public statement from the Republican Party calling for support of the government, unity in the country, and Western aid in stopping Russia's aggression. Privately on August 9, Usupashvili told us he is critical of Saakashvili,s actions, which he believes are worsening Georgia,s position. He told us that pro-Russian parties in Georgia are reaching out to Moscow and trying to establish a dialogue. He was fearful that the bombings would worsen and could possibly move to Tbilisi. Usupashvili believes that the Russian definition of victory would include a new Georgian government. MP Giorgi Targamadze, Christian Democratic Movement -------------- -------------- ¶6. (U) Although out of the country, Targamadze issued the following statement. "Today, at its most important moment in Georgia,s history, when the country,s sovereignty and territorial integrity is under real threat due to an undeclared war brought on us by Russia -- Georgia,s Christian Democratic Movement is appealing to the international community and democratic world to use all possible means to stop Russia,s military aggression against Georgia, ease tension in the Tskhinvali region, and start peaceful settlement of the conflict by the active involvement of international mediators in the process." TEFFT