EU SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE SEMNEBY DISCUSSES

C O N F I D E N T I A L TBILISI 001182 DEPT. FOR EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2018 TAGS: PREF PREL GG SUBJECT: EU SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE SEMNEBY DISCUSSES SITUATION IN ABKHAZIA REF: TBILISI 1122 Classified By: Ambassador John F. Tefft, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) In a July 8 meeting with the Ambassador, EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus Peter Semneby discussed his impressions of the June 16 talks in Sweden between Abkhaz de-facto authorities and Georgian government officials and the current situation in the conflict zones. Semneby, who participated in a dinner meeting with the sides in Sweden, thought that some of the members of the Abkhaz delegation were surprisingly constructive in their ideas and open to further dialogue and closer relations with Georgia. He agreed with the Ambassador that the head of the Abkhaz delegation, de-facto foreign minister Sergei Shamba, had been particularly negative during the talks. ¶2. (C) Shortly after the Sweden talks, Semneby said he had dinner with Abkhaz de-facto president Bagapsh in Paris. Bagapsh told Semneby that he was interested in opening Abkhazia to Europe and the rest of the world and welcomed closer EU involvement, particularly economic development projects, in Abkhazia. Bagapsh cautioned that Europe had to act "quickly", implying that Russia was moving fast to consolidate its political and economic hold over Abkhazia. He also noted that the internal political situation in Abkhazia was complex, and that the ruling elite would need to see some sort of short term personal benefit from projects in order to make them work. Bagapsh also suggested a mutual Georgian and Abkhaz withdrawal from both the Upper and Lower Kodori Gorge with police and militia from both sides replaced by a joint EU police force, an idea which Semneby found worthy of consideration. There have been discussions in Brussels about the possibility of a multi-national EU police force replacing the CIS peacekeepers operating in the security zone, but no substantive progress has been made on the issue. ¶3. (C) The Ambassador conveyed to Semneby the strong U.S. position on the July 6 cafe bombing in Gali. He told Semneby that he was quite explicit with Georgian Foreign Minister Tkeshelashvili that if the Georgians had been involved in any bombing, they should stop. Semneby replied that Tkeshelashvili told him in a July 7 phone call that the Gali bombing was conducted by forces seeking to discredit Georgia and create another obstacle to Georgian-Abkhaz negotiations. Separately, he said Tkeshelashvili mentioned that she was disappointed by the meeting between President Saakashvili and Russian President Medvedev arranged over the past weekend during the birthday celebrations for Kazakhstani President Nazarbayev in Astana. She said the Russians refuse to engage until the Georgians sign a non-use of force agreement with Abkhazia and withdraw their police from the Upper Kodori Gorge. Semneby thought that the Georgians had set up the Saakashvili-Medvedev talks for failure by drafting a letter with their demands beforehand and receiving Medvedev's (negative) reply in advance of the meeting. He noted that the Russians had expressed interest in a proposed EU stakeholders meeting on South Ossetia in Brussels on July 22 (Note: Russian DFM Karasin, Georgian Reintegration Minister Yakobashvili and South Ossetian Joint Control Commission co-chair Boris Chochiev have been invited to this meeting. End note.). Beyond that meeting, however, they have shown little interest in working to ease tensions in the region. ¶4. (C) Semneby told the Ambassador that he thought Russia was intent on strengthening its position in the South Caucasus, either to reap the economic benefits of closer ties with Abkhazia or to gain greater negotiation leverage over Georgia regarding the separatist regions. He said it would be difficult for the EU to agree on any new sanctions against Russia over its Abkhaz policy, and argued that such a policy would also have to carefully consider the likely Russian response. The EU wanted to support the U.S. on this issue, he said, but consensus would be difficult. He agreed with the Ambassador that it was important to keep the Georgians from over-reacting to Russian provocations, which would only strengthen Russia's hand. He noted that FM Tkeshelashvili reiterated the Georgian threat to officially call for the removal of the CIS Peacekeepers from Abkhazia. Semneby said he told her not to expect immediate results from Europe, that the EU was sharpening its policy with regard to the separatist conflicts in Georgia and that the issue was high on its foreign policy agenda, but results would take time. TEFFT