BUKHARA PANICS AS KAGAN IS EVACUATED AGAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L TASHKENT 000838 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA, DRL, AND INR E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2018 TAGS: PGOV CASC PINR PREL PTER UZ SUBJECT: BUKHARA PANICS AS KAGAN IS EVACUATED AGAIN REF: A. TASHKENT 807 ¶B. TASHKENT 802 ¶C. TASHKENT 794 Classified By: POLOFF R. FITZMAURICE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On July 16, authorities again evacuated Kagan, a town near Bukhara that was the scene of a series of explosions at a nearby army munitions depot on July 10 (reftels). An official told POLOFF that authorities planned to divert a nearby canal to flood the munitions depot, which was still reportedly on fire, and evacuated the town because they feared another explosion would result. Earlier, POLOFF heard from another hokimiyat official that authorities planned to conduct a "controlled" demolition of the remaining munitions at the depot after two army trucks carrying munitions away from the depot exploded and killed twelve soldiers on July 15. We are currently unable to verify the reliability of this information. The Defense Attache is currently traveling to Kagan and has been promised a tour of the army depot by the Ministry of Defense, and we hope to have more information after he returns. We also heard a report that President Karimov toured Kagan on July 17. ¶2. (SBU) POLOFF was in Bukhara while Kagan was being evacuated again on July 16, as part of a two-day trip to the city to meet with human rights contacts and learn more about the explosions. While life in Bukhara appeared to have mostly returned to normal when POLOFF first arrived on July 15, news that Kagan was being evacuated again on the afternoon of July 16 quickly spread through the city by cell phone and word of mouth, leading many Bukhara residents to decide to flee the city. Restaurants, bazaars, gas stations, and schools in Bukhara were quickly closed, further fueling the panic. According to a reliable human rights contact, this was the third time that a sizable number of Bukhara residents panicked and left the city since the original explosions on July 10. There was little official word on the evacuation, except for an unverified report that residents were being evacuated because of a lack of natural gas supplies in Kagan (which we highly doubt is the case). While in Bukhara, POLOFF also spoke with several residents, including a woman from Kagan, who described what they experienced during the original explosions and their aftermath (septel). End summary. AP REPORTS ON REEVACUATION OF KAGAN -------------- ¶3. (U) On July 16, the Associated Press, quoting "emergency workers," reported that Uzbek authorities were evacuatingQagan residents again to "temporary accommodations" because of a lack of natural gas supplies in the town. The emergency works also reportedly told AP that the "area had not been entirely cleared of shells." AP further reported that "many people" left nearby Bukhara, fearing more blasts and that Bukhara regional governor Samoyiddin Khusenov gave a television address on the evening of July 16, dismissing speculation that further explosions were imminent and appealing for calm. Kagan's population is about 50,000, while approximately 235,000 live in Bukhara. HOKIMIYAT CONTACTS GIVE THEIR VERSIONS OF EVENTS -------------- --- ¶4. (C) Shortly before catching his flight back to Tashkent on the evening of July 16, POLOFF met briefly with the head of the Bukhara hokimiyat's (regional administration) Department of Environmental Protection at the home of Bukhara-based human rights activist Shukhrat Ganiev. According to the official, fires (or at least embers from fires) had continued in deep underground bunkers at the army depot since the original explosions occurred on July 10. In order to finally put out the fire, the official explained that authorities diverted a nearby canal to flood the depot. However, authorities were reportedly afraid that when the water hit the ordinance (which, according to the official, was to occur at 5 pm local time) it might cause another explosion, and for this reason, they decided to evacuate Kagan again. The official was optimistic that the plan would be successful, but he could not yet confirm it. ¶5. (C) Several hours earlier, another hokimiyat official who worked in the Department of Small and Medium Business Development called Ganiev to report that authorities re-evacuated Kagan after they decided to conduct a "controlled" demolition of the remaining munitions at the depot. The official also reported that on July 15, two trucks carrying munitions from the depot that were to be destroyed in the desert exploded en route, killing 12 soldiers on board. POLOFF had heard the same story from several Bukhara residents earlier in the day. ¶6. (C) Comment: Ganiev is one of our most reliable contacts in the Bukhara area. Unlike some other human rights contacts, his information tends to be fairly objective and not sensationalist. If anything, he has been accused by other human rights activists of downplaying negative information about Uzbekistan. He also has well-developed contacts in the local regional administration and medical establishment, which were on ample display throughout poloff's trip. End comment. INFORMATION BLACKOUT -------------- ¶7. (C) While POLOFF was in Bukhara, there appeared to be little official explanation for why Kagan was being re-evacuated. Through his contacts, Ganiev heard reports that authorities had explained that Kagan was being re-evacuated because of inadequate natural gas supplies for its residents (which tracks with the AP story). Ganiev scoffed at the supposed explanation, noting that gas and electricity supplies are frequently cut to Uzbek cities for extended periods of time - especially in winter, when the gas is most needed for heating - but authorities have never evacuated other locations because of a lack of gas. ¶8. (C) During his short meeting with poloff, the hokimiyat's environmental protection official complained to POLOFF about the government's failure to adequately share information with the general public, which he believed directly resulted in the ensuing panic in Bukhara (see para 10-14). He believed that if the government had simply informed people why Kagan was being evacuated, Bukhara residents would not have panicked. ¶9. (C) After the initial explosions on July 10, Ganiev reported that authorities had advertised on local television three numbers for residents to call for more information: one for the hokimiyat, the second for the local Department of Emergency Services, and the third for a newly-created "Department of Evacuation" at the hokimiyat. Ganiev said that he called all three numbers a few days after the initial explosions, inquiring whether residents of Kagan could return to their town. According to Ganiev, he received three different answers: yes, no, and "I don't know." While Kagan was being evacuated again on July 16, Ganiev called the Evacuation Department phone number, and asked the woman who answered whether his family should leave Bukhara, as many other residents appeared to be leaving the city. The woman reportedly answered that Ganiev should ask his own family whether they wanted to leave Bukhara, and then promptly hung up the phone on him. PANIC SPREADS IN BUKHARA AS NEWS HITS OF KAGAN EVACUATION -------------- -------------- ¶10. (C) POLOFF was having lunch with Ganiev at a local restaurant in Bukhara when Ganiev first received a call from a colleague who lives in Kagan (poloff had spoken with the colleague the previous day, who reported that residents have been allowed to return to certain regions of Kagan, but not to areas close to the depot). The colleague told Ganiev that police were going door to door in Kagan and demanding that residents leave the city immediately on buses provided by the hokimiyat. The colleague said that residents had no time to collect belongings, and police provided them with no explanation. Shortly afterwards, Ganiev received calls from relatives and colleagues with similar reports that Kagan was being evacuated, with some speculating that further explosions could be imminent. Within half an hour, the owner of the restaurant told patrons that the restaurant was closing immediately due to "reports that further explosions were imminent." In the parking lot, POLOFF and Ganiev spoke with several Bukhara residents, who reported that kindergartens were closing throughout the city (all other schools were already closed for the summer holidays). ¶11. (C) Fearing another wave of panic striking Bukhara, the first glimpses which were already manifesting, Ganiev decided to return home to pick up his family and then head out of town. Upon reaching his home, Ganiev was approached by many of his neighbors, all of whom were worried about the possibility of further explosions and were clearly looking towards Ganiev for more information. One neighbor reported witnessing how panic gripped one of Bukhara's main bazaars after authorities commandeered a fleet of minivans and buses which normally congregated there, presumably to help with the evacuation of Kagan. Ganiev's wife, a medical doctor, reported hearing from colleagues that almost all of the doctors in Bukhara were ordered to report to Bukhara's main hospital, where an additional thousand beds were set up (Ganiev's wife was not called in as she was currently on leave). She speculated that authorities needed the extra beds to accommodate patients from two of Kagan's hospitals (Ganiev's wife also reported hearing from colleagues that Kagan's third hospital was completely destroyed in the original explosions, but we have no independent confirmation of this). ¶12. (C) Leaving Bukhara with Ganiev and his family, POLOFF noticed that police and army personnel were congregating near the city's lyceums and colleagues, where residents from Kagan were housed during the initial evacuation on July 10 (poloff had visited another lyceum still housing Kagan residents the previous day). Ganiev speculated that police were again making way for the residents of Kagan to return to the colleges and lyceums. POLOFF noticed that many restaurants and stores appeared to be closed, including one of Bukhara's main bazaars on the edge of the city, and many residents frantically packing their cars with foodstuffs and sleeping mats. Ganiev stopped to refuel his car at a gas station, as he was almost out of gas, but the station closed before Ganiev could fill his tank, to the consternation of Ganiev and other customers. Ganiev later found another gas station that was still open, but the atmosphere was tense, with residents racing to pump gas before that station closed as well. Unusually, there were no traffic police visible at the traffic circle and checkpoint on the edge of the city. ¶13. (C) After driving through much heavier traffic than normal (but certainly not stand-still traffic either) on the main highway heading towards Tashkent, Ganiev pulled off the highway at a rest stop approximately 30 kilometers from Bukhara and 50 kilometers from Kagan. The rest stop was initially empty but quickly filled up with other Bukhara residents. One of the families at the rest stop was from a region near Kagan, and explained that authorities had ordered them to evacuate earlier that day without explanation. Bukhara residents at the rest stop also did not know why Kagan was being evacuated, but assumed it was because more explosions were imminent. POLOFF also watched the traffic pass by the station, counting at least ten cars headed away from Bukhara for every one car heading towards the city. Many cars, buses, and minivans, and even a few trucks, were crammed full of people. POLOFF also saw some residents, mostly children, riding down the highway in the open trunks of sedans. ¶14. (C) While at the rest stop, Ganiev received numerous calls from contacts. He received one call from Bukhara-based human rights activist Vohid Karimov, who also works as an ambulance doctor. Karimov reported being in Kagan before the evacuation began and hearing a small explosion, which he believed was munitions at the base exploding. After two hours at the rest stop, Ganiev judged that the danger of further explosions had passed, and drove back to Bukhara with poloff. However, some of the other residents from Bukhara were not convinced, Qd told POLOFF that they planned to sleep overnight at the rest stop. Driving back into the city, poloff still saw a large number of residents lining the road on the edge of the city, bargaining with taxi and minibus drivers (and even a few donkey-carts) for a lift out of town. POLOFF also noticed that the traffic police were now in place. PRESIDENT KARIMOV REPORTELY VISITS KAGAN ON JULY 17 -------------- -------------- ¶15. (C) After returning to Tashkent, POLOFF spoke with Ganiev again by telephone on July 17, who reported that President Karimov toured Kagan that day. Ganiev also insisted that the hokimiyat official's report that authorities flooded the munitions depot on July 16 was correct (Comment: If what Ganiev reports is true, it is possible that Uzbek authorities decided to flood the army depot on July 16 to quickly put out any continued flames or explosions, even at the supposed risk of another explosion, ahead of President Karimov's arrival the next day. While in Bukhara on July 16, POLOFF also heard rumors that Karimov would arrive the next day. End comment.) COMMENT -------------- ¶16. (C) Why authorities evacuated Kagan again with great haste on July remains unclear. Explanations received from some officials who work in the local regional administration do not sound entirely plausible. Just as authorities failed to adequately inform the general populace about why Kagan was being evacuated, directly leading to the panic that POLOFF observed in Bukhara, we also suspect that information is poorly shared within the Uzbek government itself. It is even possibility that some officials are the sources of some the rumors floating through the city. We hope to have more information after our Defense Attache tours Kagan. ¶17. (C) Unfortunately, the government's first priority in crisis situations is controlling the flow of information, not providing assistance to victims, which only increases the panic and makes the situation worse. The obvious continuing ineptitude of authorities in handling the consequences of the Kagan explosions seriously calls into the question the ability of the government to handle other crises. NORLAND