BUKHARA PANICS AS KAGAN IS EVACUATED AGAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L TASHKENT 000838

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA, DRL, AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV CASC PINR PREL PTER UZ
SUBJECT: BUKHARA PANICS AS KAGAN IS EVACUATED AGAIN

REF: A. TASHKENT 807

B. TASHKENT 802

C. TASHKENT 794

Classified By: POLOFF R. FITZMAURICE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B, D)


1. (SBU) Summary: On July 16, authorities again evacuated
Kagan, a town near Bukhara that was the scene of a series of
explosions at a nearby army munitions depot on July 10
(reftels). An official told poloff that authorities planned
to divert a nearby canal to flood the munitions depot, which
was still reportedly on fire, and evacuated the town because
they feared another explosion would result. Earlier, poloff
heard from another hokimiyat official that authorities
planned to conduct a "controlled" demolition of the remaining
munitions at the depot after two army trucks carrying
munitions away from the depot exploded and killed twelve
soldiers on July 15. We are currently unable to verify the
reliability of this information. The Defense Attache is
currently traveling to Kagan and has been promised a tour of
the army depot by the Ministry of Defense, and we hope to
have more information after he returns. We also heard a
report that President Karimov toured Kagan on July 17.


2. (SBU) Poloff was in Bukhara while Kagan was being
evacuated again on July 16, as part of a two-day trip to the
city to meet with human rights contacts and learn more about
the explosions. While life in Bukhara appeared to have
mostly returned to normal when poloff first arrived on July
15, news that Kagan was being evacuated again on the
afternoon of July 16 quickly spread through the city by cell
phone and word of mouth, leading many Bukhara residents to
decide to flee the city. Restaurants, bazaars, gas stations,
and schools in Bukhara were quickly closed, further fueling
the panic. According to a reliable human rights contact,
this was the third time that a sizable number of Bukhara
residents panicked and left the city since the original
explosions on July 10. There was little official word on the
evacuation, except for an unverified report that residents
were being evacuated because of a lack of natural gas
supplies in Kagan (which we highly doubt is the case). While
in Bukhara, poloff also spoke with several residents,
including a woman from Kagan, who described what they
experienced during the original explosions and their
aftermath (septel). End summary.

AP REPORTS ON REEVACUATION OF KAGAN
--------------


3. (U) On July 16, the Associated Press, quoting "emergency
workers," reported that Uzbek authorities were evacuatingQagan residents again
to "temporary accommodations" because
of a lack of natural gas supplies in the town. The emergency
works also reportedly told AP that the "area had not been
entirely cleared of shells." AP further reported that "many
people" left nearby Bukhara, fearing more blasts and that
Bukhara regional governor Samoyiddin Khusenov gave a
television address on the evening of July 16, dismissing
speculation that further explosions were imminent and
appealing for calm. Kagan's population is about 50,000,
while approximately 235,000 live in Bukhara.

HOKIMIYAT CONTACTS GIVE THEIR VERSIONS OF EVENTS
-------------- ---


4. (C) Shortly before catching his flight back to Tashkent
on the evening of July 16, poloff met briefly with the head
of the Bukhara hokimiyat's (regional administration)
Department of Environmental Protection at the home of
Bukhara-based human rights activist Shukhrat Ganiev.
According to the official, fires (or at least embers from
fires) had continued in deep underground bunkers at the army
depot since the original explosions occurred on July 10. In
order to finally put out the fire, the official explained
that authorities diverted a nearby canal to flood the depot.
However, authorities were reportedly afraid that when the
water hit the ordinance (which, according to the official,
was to occur at 5 pm local time) it might cause another
explosion, and for this reason, they decided to evacuate
Kagan again. The official was optimistic that the plan would
be successful, but he could not yet confirm it.


5. (C) Several hours earlier, another hokimiyat official who
worked in the Department of Small and Medium Business
Development called Ganiev to report that authorities
re-evacuated Kagan after they decided to conduct a
"controlled" demolition of the remaining munitions at the
depot. The official also reported that on July 15, two
trucks carrying munitions from the depot that were to be
destroyed in the desert exploded en route, killing 12
soldiers on board. Poloff had heard the same story from
several Bukhara residents earlier in the day.


6. (C) Comment: Ganiev is one of our most reliable contacts
in the Bukhara area. Unlike some other human rights
contacts, his information tends to be fairly objective and
not sensationalist. If anything, he has been accused by
other human rights activists of downplaying negative
information about Uzbekistan. He also has well-developed
contacts in the local regional administration and medical
establishment, which were on ample display throughout
poloff's trip. End comment.

INFORMATION BLACKOUT
--------------


7. (C) While poloff was in Bukhara, there appeared to be
little official explanation for why Kagan was being
re-evacuated. Through his contacts, Ganiev heard reports
that authorities had explained that Kagan was being
re-evacuated because of inadequate natural gas supplies for
its residents (which tracks with the AP story). Ganiev
scoffed at the supposed explanation, noting that gas and
electricity supplies are frequently cut to Uzbek cities for
extended periods of time - especially in winter, when the gas
is most needed for heating - but authorities have never
evacuated other locations because of a lack of gas.


8. (C) During his short meeting with poloff, the hokimiyat's
environmental protection official complained to poloff about
the government's failure to adequately share information with
the general public, which he believed directly resulted in
the ensuing panic in Bukhara (see para 10-14). He believed
that if the government had simply informed people why Kagan
was being evacuated, Bukhara residents would not have
panicked.


9. (C) After the initial explosions on July 10, Ganiev
reported that authorities had advertised on local television
three numbers for residents to call for more information: one
for the hokimiyat, the second for the local Department of
Emergency Services, and the third for a newly-created
"Department of Evacuation" at the hokimiyat. Ganiev said
that he called all three numbers a few days after the initial
explosions, inquiring whether residents of Kagan could return
to their town. According to Ganiev, he received three
different answers: yes, no, and "I don't know." While Kagan
was being evacuated again on July 16, Ganiev called the
Evacuation Department phone number, and asked the woman who
answered whether his family should leave Bukhara, as many
other residents appeared to be leaving the city. The woman
reportedly answered that Ganiev should ask his own family
whether they wanted to leave Bukhara, and then promptly hung
up the phone on him.

PANIC SPREADS IN BUKHARA AS NEWS HITS OF KAGAN EVACUATION
-------------- --------------


10. (C) Poloff was having lunch with Ganiev at a local
restaurant in Bukhara when Ganiev first received a call from
a colleague who lives in Kagan (poloff had spoken with the
colleague the previous day, who reported that residents have
been allowed to return to certain regions of Kagan, but not
to areas close to the depot). The colleague told Ganiev that
police were going door to door in Kagan and demanding that
residents leave the city immediately on buses provided by the
hokimiyat. The colleague said that residents had no time to
collect belongings, and police provided them with no
explanation. Shortly afterwards, Ganiev received calls from
relatives and colleagues with similar reports that Kagan was
being evacuated, with some speculating that further
explosions could be imminent. Within half an hour, the owner
of the restaurant told patrons that the restaurant was
closing immediately due to "reports that further explosions
were imminent." In the parking lot, poloff and Ganiev spoke
with several Bukhara residents, who reported that
kindergartens were closing throughout the city (all other
schools were already closed for the summer holidays).


11. (C) Fearing another wave of panic striking Bukhara, the
first glimpses which were already manifesting, Ganiev decided
to return home to pick up his family and then head out of
town. Upon reaching his home, Ganiev was approached by many
of his neighbors, all of whom were worried about the
possibility of further explosions and were clearly looking
towards Ganiev for more information. One neighbor reported
witnessing how panic gripped one of Bukhara's main bazaars
after authorities commandeered a fleet of minivans and buses
which normally congregated there, presumably to help with the
evacuation of Kagan. Ganiev's wife, a medical doctor,
reported hearing from colleagues that almost all of the
doctors in Bukhara were ordered to report to Bukhara's main
hospital, where an additional thousand beds were set up
(Ganiev's wife was not called in as she was currently on
leave). She speculated that authorities needed the extra
beds to accommodate patients from two of Kagan's hospitals
(Ganiev's wife also reported hearing from colleagues that
Kagan's third hospital was completely destroyed in the
original explosions, but we have no independent confirmation
of this).


12. (C) Leaving Bukhara with Ganiev and his family, poloff
noticed that police and army personnel were congregating near
the city's lyceums and colleagues, where residents from Kagan
were housed during the initial evacuation on July 10 (poloff
had visited another lyceum still housing Kagan residents the
previous day). Ganiev speculated that police were again
making way for the residents of Kagan to return to the
colleges and lyceums. Poloff noticed that many restaurants
and stores appeared to be closed, including one of Bukhara's
main bazaars on the edge of the city, and many residents
frantically packing their cars with foodstuffs and sleeping
mats. Ganiev stopped to refuel his car at a gas station, as
he was almost out of gas, but the station closed before
Ganiev could fill his tank, to the consternation of Ganiev
and other customers. Ganiev later found another gas station
that was still open, but the atmosphere was tense, with
residents racing to pump gas before that station closed as
well. Unusually, there were no traffic police visible at the
traffic circle and checkpoint on the edge of the city.


13. (C) After driving through much heavier traffic than
normal (but certainly not stand-still traffic either) on the
main highway heading towards Tashkent, Ganiev pulled off the
highway at a rest stop approximately 30 kilometers from
Bukhara and 50 kilometers from Kagan. The rest stop was
initially empty but quickly filled up with other Bukhara
residents. One of the families at the rest stop was from a
region near Kagan, and explained that authorities had ordered
them to evacuate earlier that day without explanation.
Bukhara residents at the rest stop also did not know why
Kagan was being evacuated, but assumed it was because more
explosions were imminent. Poloff also watched the traffic
pass by the station, counting at least ten cars headed away
from Bukhara for every one car heading towards the city.
Many cars, buses, and minivans, and even a few trucks, were
crammed full of people. Poloff also saw some residents,
mostly children, riding down the highway in the open trunks
of sedans.


14. (C) While at the rest stop, Ganiev received numerous
calls from contacts. He received one call from Bukhara-based
human rights activist Vohid Karimov, who also works as an
ambulance doctor. Karimov reported being in Kagan before the
evacuation began and hearing a small explosion, which he
believed was munitions at the base exploding. After two
hours at the rest stop, Ganiev judged that the danger of
further explosions had passed, and drove back to Bukhara with
poloff. However, some of the other residents from Bukhara
were not convinced, Qd told poloff that they planned to
sleep overnight at the rest stop. Driving back into the city,
poloff still saw a large number of residents lining the road
on the edge of the city, bargaining with taxi and minibus
drivers (and even a few donkey-carts) for a lift out of town.
Poloff also noticed that the traffic police were now in
place.

PRESIDENT KARIMOV REPORTELY VISITS KAGAN ON JULY 17
-------------- --------------


15. (C) After returning to Tashkent, poloff spoke with
Ganiev again by telephone on July 17, who reported that
President Karimov toured Kagan that day. Ganiev also
insisted that the hokimiyat official's report that
authorities flooded the munitions depot on July 16 was
correct (Comment: If what Ganiev reports is true, it is
possible that Uzbek authorities decided to flood the army
depot on July 16 to quickly put out any continued flames or
explosions, even at the supposed risk of another explosion,
ahead of President Karimov's arrival the next day. While in
Bukhara on July 16, poloff also heard rumors that Karimov
would arrive the next day. End comment.)

COMMENT
--------------


16. (C) Why authorities evacuated Kagan again with great
haste on July remains unclear. Explanations received from
some officials who work in the local regional administration
do not sound entirely plausible. Just as authorities failed
to adequately inform the general populace about why Kagan was
being evacuated, directly leading to the panic that poloff
observed in Bukhara, we also suspect that information is
poorly shared within the Uzbek government itself. It is even
possibility that some officials are the sources of some the
rumors floating through the city. We hope to have more
information after our Defense Attache tours Kagan.


17. (C) Unfortunately, the government's first priority in
crisis situations is controlling the flow of information, not
providing assistance to victims, which only increases the
panic and makes the situation worse. The obvious continuing
ineptitude of authorities in handling the consequences of the
Kagan explosions seriously calls into the question the
ability of the government to handle other crises.
NORLAND