OSCE NOTES ON KARIMOV MEETING OFFER INSIGHTS INTO

C O N F I D E N T I A L TASHKENT 000818 SIPDIS USOSCE FOR ELIZABETH KAUFMAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL OSCE PHUM PINR AF KZ UZ SUBJECT: OSCE NOTES ON KARIMOV MEETING OFFER INSIGHTS INTO UZBEK FOREIGN POLICY REF: A. TASHKENT 447 ¶B. 07 TASHKENT 2182 ¶C. STATE 65258 Classified By: Political Officer Tim Buckley for reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary: On July 3 Bernard Rouault, Senior Project Officer at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Project Coordination Office in Tashkent, provided poloff with notes from the June 4 meeting between Alexander Stubb, visiting Chairman in Office of the OSCE and Finnish Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Uzbekistan President Islam Karimov. Stubb was accompanied by OSCE Ambassador Istvan Venczel, who was the note taker. Not surprisingly, Karimov monopolized the time and talked at great length about how a patient Uzbekistan puts up with injustice on the international scene, including in what he sees as a flawed OSCE. The OSCE may annoy Karimov, but he has already diminished its role in the country and will not likely suspend Uzbekistan's participation in the organization. Karimov's comments offer interesting insights into how he views the world, and therefore about the underpinnings of Uzbek foreign policy. End summary. ¶2. (C) The June 4 meeting between Stubb and President Karimov was planned for 90 minutes but lasted two hours, of which Karimov took 90 percent of the time. Ambassador Venczel (please protect),who heads the Tashkent OSCE Project Coordination Office, attended the meeting and took notes. Venczel reported that Karimov "lingered on a number of issues in a very straight and open way." Rouault discreetly passed poloff a copy of the notes on July 3. Prospects "Not Encouraging" -------------- ¶3. (C) Karimov described his long experience interacting with the OSCE and noted the organization "has gone through various stages," but that "now the prospects of the OSCE do not seem encouraging." He stressed that he tries not to be a pessimist, but said "in a rapidly changing world the OSCE faces a number of serious challenges, and its philosophical approach to many issues is losing support." Nonetheless, Karimov said at the end of the meeting that he was "satisfied with the structure of the OSCE presence" in the country. (Note: The OSCE mission in Tashkent was downgraded to a Project Coordination Office and, while a program of action has been agreed with the Government of Uzbekistan, the Mission routinely has difficulty getting proposed projects approved by the Uzbeks, particularly in the human dimension. Ref A. End note). Summit of Member States -------------- ¶4. (C) Karimov expressed disappointment that member states have not held a summit since 1999, according to the notes, "and in recent years the participating states have failed to come to a consensus on the final documents to be adopted by the yearly Ministerial Councils." Karimov suggested that it could be helpful from a practical point of view to "rethink the principle and practice of consensus in voting and to work out a compromise on the issue," perhaps requiring only 25 votes on key measures. Karimov opined that "as a result of the problems and its failures the OSCE has continued to receive strong criticism in recent years." Double Standards -------------- ¶5. (C) Karimov said the OSCE is divided into two camps: one West and one East from Vienna, with the former playing a dominant role. He criticized the OSCE has being "discriminative," and claimed there were no representatives from Uzbekistan in several units of the organization. He also believes "it is necessary to strengthen the organizational character of the OSCE," and to regulate the activities of the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR),which "has become an independent organization within OSCE." (Note: Uzbekistan issued a late invitation to ODIHR to observe Presidential elections in December 2007 and capped the number of international observers. As a result, only a hastily-organized limited observer mission was possible, but the final report still offered strong criticisms of the uncompetitive nature of the elections and the lack of real choice between candidates. Ref B. End note). ¶6. (C) Karimov spoke bitterly about the use of "double standards" in the OSCE, to the detriment of some countries such as Uzbekistan. Karimov also lamented that "some countries use the OSCE for political goals to strengthen their positions vis-a-vis other member states," a practice which he said needs to stop. He clarified that these problems could not be resolved "in one attack," but rather through consistent endeavors. Follow the Leader -------------- ¶7. (C) Karimov also criticized the "herd mentality" prevalent in international relations, when a few countries "or even just one" determines the positions of others, even in the context of organizations. In principle, he said such organizations should work in democratic frameworks, but he lamented that no one dares to oppose the leaders, instead "following the leading nucleus of the organization." Just as Russia is more influential in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) than all other members combined, he said, so is the situation in the OSCE and EU. (Comment: The analogy to the CIS suggests that Karimov resents Russia's dominance in regional forums, a strong reason for Uzbekistan not to entirely turn away from the OSCE, despite its proclivity to talk about unwelcome themes like human rights. The Uzbeks often equate the OSCE with the EU, and local OSCE staff have complained that Government of Uzbekistan officials inaccurately link the two entities, such as in the run-up to EU sanctions decisions. End comment.) Respect for Different Values -------------- ¶8. (C) Venczel reported in the notes that Karimov spoke at great lengths about the need to "respect each other,s values," and emphasized the different traditions, history, and culture between the member nations. Karimov stated that he personally, as well as his family, "respect and highly appreciate European values." He expressed that this keeps his country - for the time being - in the organization, but he in turn said he expects the same respect from others. He bitterly asked "why does Europe think that all the rest of the world should respect its values, and why are they perceived as universal by Europe while it frequently fails to grant the same respect to others?" In this context he warned "with that mentality Europe jeopardizes its own international position." He raised the Mohammad cartoon incidents as an example, stressing that "freedom of the press should not hurt others, fundamental rights." The freedom of media, he added, "should be accompanied by responsible behavior." (Comment: Karimov's government has been particularly hostile recently to independent media such as RFE/RL (ref C),but he is motivated by the desire to maintain stability and tight control rather than respect fundamental rights. End comment.) Criticism of Kazakhstan -------------- ¶9. (C) The notes indicate Karimov devoted much time to differentiating between the mentality and political practice of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in international politics, with particular emphasis on the coming Kazakh Chairmanship of the OSCE. He sharply criticized Kazakhstan "for its double-faced political behavior, irresponsible promises, and the big PR campaign by Kazakhstan for securing support for the OSCE Presidency." After a long critique of Kazakhstan, Karimov nevertheless concluded that bilateral relations were very good and there were no serious conflicts between them, "just some differences of opinions." (Comment: Karimov is likely very jealous that a neighboring rival successfully managed to position itself to wield considerable clout and gain in stature on the international scene while Uzbekistan remains a pariah. Uzbekistan has significantly stepped up the pace of legal reforms and human rights guarantees in 2008, at least on paper, and clearly craves more esteem in the international community after shame and isolation following the 2005 Andijon incidents. Looking north, Karimov doesn't think Kazakhstan has made much more substantive progress on human rights and other reforms than his Uzbekistan. End comment.) Afghanistan 6 3 -------------- ¶10. (C) The issue of Afghanistan occupied a central place in Karimov,s remarks. He assured Stubb that the initiative Karimov presented in Bucharest "came from the heart," as he had "thought long and hard about the ongoing crises and suffering of the Afghan people." He concluded that "the military solution has been exhausted, and in fact the more efforts the international community makes in this direction, the more counterproductive it becomes." He reminded that there has been continuous war for 30 years, and the Afghans defeated the British three times in their history and the Soviet Union once. ¶11. (C) The 6 3 proposal, according to Karimov, stresses the need to solve the economic and social problems of Afghanistan. He added that it also takes into account the problems of ethnic minorities. He specifically mentioned General Dostum as being the leader of the ethnic Uzbeks in Afghanistan. The substance of the 6 3 idea, in Karimov's view, is to seek compromise. If Afghanistan is represented by Karzai,s government, which he said is very weak and not at all representative of the population, it would deter other Afghan factions from supporting this proposal and the peace process. Hence, the 6 3 idea does not mention concrete Afghan participation. Karimov added that any solution should respect the cultural and religious traditions of the Afghan people. He also stated that his proposal includes the neighboring countries since it would be impossible to achieve a lasting solution without them. However, he believes the entire negotiating process should take place under the auspices of the UN. Comment: -------------- ¶12. (C) Despite the critical comments about the OSCE, it is not in Karimov's interests to pull Uzbekistan out of the organization. He will likely continue to keep OSCE at arm's length by limiting the number of projects across all three dimensions and taking his time in approving them. The reduced role of the OSCE Mission as a Project Coordination Office also limits the organization's operational capacity but still allows Karimov to keep some eggs in the basket. ¶13. (C) Karimov's comments on international relations, including the OSCE dynamics, Kazakhstan's ascendancy, and his 6 3 proposal, offer insights into how he views the world (and therefore the cornerstones of Uzbek foreign policy), insights which track with his exchanges with U.S. officials over the past year. He sees a patient Uzbekistan enduring unfair criticism as Western-led international entities gang up on him due to misunderstandings as well as their own arrogance. Consequently, he likely believes the world does not appreciate the progress Uzbekistan has made while overcoming great challenges in just 17 years of independence and that it likewise fails to see the vision of his 6 3 proposal. NORLAND