UZBEKISTAN: KAGAN EXPLOSIONS: DAY TWO

C O N F I D E N T I A L TASHKENT 000807

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA, DRL, AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV CASC PINR PREL PTER UZ
SUBJECT: UZBEKISTAN: KAGAN EXPLOSIONS: DAY TWO

REF: A. TASHKENT 794

B. TASHKENT 802

Classified By: POLOFF R. FITZMAURICE FOR REASONS 1.4 (B, D)


1. (SBU) Summary: Later in the day and evening of July 10,
the state-controlled media carried several stories on the
series of explosions which occurred early that morning at an
army depot in the town of Kagan, near Bukhara (reftels),
reporting "preliminary data" as showing that 3 individuals
were killed and 21 were injured. In contrast, independent
websites reported that Bukhara's hospitals were full of the
injured and that the number of casualties was probably much
higher than reported by the government. On July 11, our most
reliable contact in Bukhara provided us an update of the
situation, reporting that while Kagan is still cordoned off
by a large number of military personnel, some residents have
been able to return to certain regions of the town by foot.
The source also reported that approximately 250 were killed
and 3,000 injured, and that approximately 12,000 to 15,000
individuals have been evacuated from Kagan. According to the
contact, the government has not yet provided adequate food
and lodging to the evacuees. The source also reported that
while rumors continued to spread about possible further
explosions, the situation in Bukhara appears to have calmed
down somewhat. In addition, the Foreign Minister called the
Ambassador today to inform him that President Karimov
appreciated the Ambassador's offer of assistance yesterday,
but that such assistance was unnecessary. Clearly, we are
hearing different stories about the situation in Kagan and
Bukhara from official and unofficial sources, and it is still
not possible for us to confirm information from either side.
We remain concerned by reports that evacuees have not been
provided with adequate medical care, food, and lodging.
There have been no reports of AmCit casualties. End summary.

BETTER LATE THAN NEVER: OFFICIAL UZBEK MEDIA REACTION
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2. (U) On July 10, the state-controlled media carried
several stories on the explosions which occurred early that
morning in Kagan. Most of the stories reported that
according to "preliminary data," 3 individuals were killed
and 21 injured by the explosions. The website of the
Uzbekistan National News Agency (UzA) reported that "an
ignition occurred at the rocket and artillery depot of the
Defense Ministry's military unit in Kagan district of Bukhara
region, resulting in fire and explosion of the ammunition at
the depot." It also reported that "regional Interior Affairs
Department and the Defense Ministry troops cordoned the area
of the accident...the civilians living nearby were evacuated."


3. (U) The UzA website further reported that a government
commission has been set up to "neutralize the situation,
conduct the necessary security measures, and provide
assistance to the victims." It also reported that the
commission has begun to investigate the accident. The
commission will reportedly include "heads of the Government";
the National Security Service; the General Prosecutor's
Office; the Ministries of Defense, Emergency Situations, and
Internal Affairs; and "other structures."


4. (SBU) In the evening of July 10, the state-controlled
Uzbek Television First Channel reported (incredibly) that
"life in (Kagan) is normal...central and administrative
buildings, hospitals and public organizations in Kagan
district and in the town are working as usual." The program
went on to blame "certain foreign media" for spreading "false
information causing a sensation." The program interviewed
Interior Minister Bahodir Matlubov, who was in Kagan and
reported that "in line with our president's resolution, a
government commission led by the Uzbek prime minister was set
up immediately...special groups from the relevant ministries
arrived at the scene...people were evacuated from potentially
dangerous places...provided with food and medicines, as well
as with a temporary residence." Matlubov was further quoted
as saying that "...the fire was put out by the morning of 10
July...repair work and work to put everything in order at the
scene of the incident is still under way."

INDEPENDENT MEDIA TELLS A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY
-------------- -


5. (U) On July 10, the independent Ferghana.ru website
reported a much different story. In a purported interview,
an unnamed "witness" in Bukhara reported that the "Bukhara
regional clinical hospital and medical emergency centers are
full with injured from Kagan...cardiology and oncological
hospitals are being temporarily freed of their own patients
to take people coming from Kagan." The witness was not able
to estimate the number of deaths, but believed they were much
higher than reported in the official state media. The
eyewitness reported hearing from Kagan residents that a
five-story building and a hospital close to the military
depot were destroyed in the blasts. The eyewitness further
reported that most of the injured arriving at hospitals in
Bukhara lived two to three kilometers away from the depot.
In a separate article, Ferghana reported that residents have
been advised to stay home and "not talk to strangers," and
that telephone communications have also been cut off.

REPORT FROM RELIABLE CONTACT IN BUKHARA
--------------


6. (C) On July 11, Bukhara-based human rights activist
Shukhrat Ganiev provided us an update of the situation in
Bukhara and Kagan. Ganiev reported that approximately 100 to
125 firefighters were on the scene trying to put out fires.
He reported that a large number of military personnel from
bases in Bukhara, Jizzakh, and Tashkent provinces have been
transported to Kagan and were helping to block off the city.
He reported that residents of Kagan could not reenter the
city by car, but individuals were able to return to certain
regions by foot, while other areas of the town near the army
depot remain blocked off. Contrary to certain reports, he
noted that the Kagan train station (the main train station
for Bukhara) was not destroyed. Ganiev said that the army
depot held artillery shells and aerial bombs ("aviabomba").
He reported that the depot held 30 to 50 "echelons" of
munitions (Comment: A local Embassy employee explained that
an echelon was equal to 16 train wagons full of munitions.
He believed that 30 to 50 echelons was most likely an
exaggeration. End comment.)


7. (C) Ganiev reported that the dead and injured are being
brought to a make-shift hospital and morgue at a college
building in the town of Qizil Tepe, about 20 kilometers from
Kagan and Bukhara. The government has reportedly sent
approximately 35 doctors from Tashkent to help with the
wounded. According to Ganiev, the government was seeking to
avoid sending the dead and wounded to Bukhara in order to
avoid information from leaking out. He reported an
unofficial death toll so far of 235, with about 3,000
individuals injured (Comment: We are unable to verify
Ganiev's figures, but we certainly think the government's own
figures are too low. The RSO spoke with police contacts in
Tashkent on July 10, who reported hearing from colleagues in
Bukhara an unofficial death toll of about 60 individuals.)
According to Ganiev, many of those killed were at the Kagan
City Hospital, which was approximately 1.5 kilometers from
the epicenter. In comparison, the center of Kagan was 2.1
kilometers from the depot, while the center of Bukhara was
about 14.5 kilometers away. According to Ganiev, the
explosions also reportedly caused damage to the Karaul Bazaar
prison in Kagan, and authorities were in the process of
trying to transport approximately 1,550 prisoners to prison
number 64-03 in Bukhara city.


8. (C) Ganiev further reported hearing from contacts in the
local Bukhara Department of Emergency Services that
approximately 12,000 - 15,000 individuals were evacuated from
Kagan, including about 2,500 to 3,000 elderly individuals and
children. He said that the evacuees were being placed in
lyceums and colleges in Bukhara and Qizil Tepe. He also
reported that authorities were loading evacuees on buses and
sending them further afield. Ganiev said that many of the
evacuees did not have any time to gather belongings from
their homes and were not being provided with adequate
lodging, food, and water. He also noted that many Kagan
residents were separated from their relatives during the
hasty evacuation. Noting that authorities have done little
to help relatives find one another, Ganiev said that he was
in the process of organizing volunteers to man a makeshift
informational center for Kagan evacuees. Another contact in
Bukhara on July 11 appeared to confirm what Ganiev told us on
July 10: residents were not being evacuated from Bukhara,
except for a region of the city adjacent to Kagan. Evacuees
from Kagan were seen gathered in Bukhara's parks and squares.


9. (C) Ganiev observed that rumors were still spreading in
Bukhara of possible additional explosions in Kagan. One
rumor held that individuals needed to be at least 40
kilometers from Bukhara to be safe. As a result, he reported
that many residents have left Bukhara in their cars and were
staying with relatives in villages and rural areas.
Nevertheless, he reported that the city operated as normal,
and that the bazaars and stores were open. In comparison to
the evening of July 10, when many residents appeared to be in
a state of near panic, he noted that the atmosphere in
Bukhara had appeared to calm down.


10. (C) Comment: Ganiev is one of our most reliable contacts
in the Bukhara area. Unlike some other human rights
contacts, his information tends to be fairly even-handed and
not sensationalist. He is also known to have well-developed
contacts among law-enforcement, medical, and legal
establishments and the local regional administration in
Bukhara. No doubt he is drawing upon these contacts for much
of this information. End comment.

KARIMOV POLITELY DECLINES OFFER OF ASSISTANCE
--------------


11. (C) On the morning of July 11, Foreign Minister Norov
telephoned the Ambassador to say that his offer to explore
Explosive Ordinance Disposal and medical assistance from the
United States had been conveyed to President Karimov. Norov
said Karimov asked that the message be conveyed back that the
offer was appreciated but that the government has the
situation under control. Norov further reported that a
commission chaired by Prime Minister Mirziyayev has been
formed and that all appropriate measures are being taken to
address the aftermath of the disaster. Norov stuck with
official estimates of 3 dead and 21 injured.

COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) We are hearing different stories about the situation
in Kagan and Bukhara from official and unofficial sources,
and it is still not possible for us to confirm information
from either side. The truth is probably somewhere in the
middle, but it is clear that the government's current death
toll is too low. While it does appear that the government
has managed to get a handle on the situation to a certain
degree, we are still concerned by reports that evacuees have
not been provided with adequate medical care, food, and
lodging. There have been no reports of AmCit casualties. We
will continue to follow the situation closely and provide
updates as needed.
NORLAND