UZBEKISTAN: OFFICIAL COMMENTS ON PROPOSED

C O N F I D E N T I A L TASHKENT 000739

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2018
TAGS: AORC ASEC ECIN KTIA PBTS PGOV PINR PREL UZ
SUBJECT: UZBEKISTAN: OFFICIAL COMMENTS ON PROPOSED
CSTO-EURASEC MERGER

Classified By: Poloff Steven Prohaska for reasons 1.4 (b, d).


1. (C) Summary: In a June 24 meeting with Poloff, Bahromjon
Aloev from Uzbekistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs
criticized the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)
and the Eurasian Economic Community (Eurasec) for slow
activity and duplication of effort. He noted Uzbekistan's
especially deep skepticism toward Eurasec and raised concerns
about possible conflicts for member states between World
Trade Organization and Eurasec Customs Union requirements.
Aloev echoed President Karimov's June 6 proposal to merge the
CSTO and Eurasec, citing the potential time and resources
savings. Another possible driver behind the proposal is
Karimov's desire for recognition as a regional
leader--acceptance of the proposal could highlight
Uzbekistan's influence in the region, while rejection of it
could insulate Uzbekistan from possible criticism from member
states dissatisfied with one or both organizations. Aloev
also denied claims in the Russian press that the merger is
intended to create a counterweight to NATO, though the
proposal might reflect in part a desire to balance relations
among key states active in the region and to show the West
that Karimov has other options. End summary.

Uzbekistan Critical of Slow Activity, Duplication of Effort
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2. (C) During a June 24 meeting with Poloff, Bahromjon
Aloev--the Director of Uzbekistan's Department for
Cooperation with CIS Countries and Russia in Uzbekistan's
Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA)--criticized the Collective
Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and particularly the
Eurasian Economic Community (Eurasec) for their "very slow
tempo of activity." (Note: At the informal summit of the CIS
countries in St. Petersburg on June 6, President Karimov
proposed combining the CSTO and Eurasec into a single
organization. With the exception of Armenia, which belongs
only to the CSTO, both organizations have the same members.
End note.) Aloev explained that primary goals of Eurasec
include the creation of a Customs Union and a free trade
zone, but neither of these goals has been realized yet, and
instead the organization has been organizing events that are
"ineffective." He repeatedly noted Uzbekistan's pessimistic
attitude toward Eurasec.


3. (C) Aloev said that Uzbekistan sees a duplication of
effort between the CSTO and Eurasec. "Sometimes they work on
the same documents, on illegal migration, border issues, and
so on," he said. Aloev then quoted President Karimov,
asserting that not a single economic project can be realized
without providing security. He said that Karimov's proposal
would create a strong regional organization that can solve
both economic and security issues and will avoid duplication
of effort. "At present, all member states pay fees to
Eurasec and the CSTO," Aloev stated. Combining the
organizations would reduce the fees that each member state
would have to pay. Aloev noted that none of the other CSTO
or Eurasec member states has responded to Karimov's merger
proposal, but many international experts have reacted to it
positively.

A Choice Between Eurasec and the WTO
--------------


4. (C) "Eurasec is divided into two groups," Aloev continued.
The first "troika" consists of Russia, Belarus, and
Kazakhstan. They are working on forming the legal basis for
a Customs Union charter, and according to the current
schedule, this will be complete by 2010. At the same time,
these states are trying to join the World Trade Organization
(WTO),Aloev said. He asserted that these states should
choose to join Eurasec's Customs union or the WTO, because
obligations under one may conflict with those of the other.
The second group consists of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and
Tajikistan, and each state will join the Customs Union later
on when they are "willing" and "prepared." Kyrgyzstan is in
the WTO, he said. "Will Kyrgyzstan listen to the WTO's
demands or those of Eurasec's Customs Union?" Aloev asked.
"There are many questions."

Why Can't They be More like the SCO?
--------------


5. (C) "The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) works
well," Aloev said, and praised the SCO for its more specific
activities. "When there is a Heads of State meeting of the
SCO, there is a maximum of two or three issues on the
agenda... and these are strategic issues," he continued. In
an exasperated tone, he complained that the Eurasec agenda
often has 20-30 items, and Uzbekistan has tried to block
certain items from being placed on the agenda. Aloev also
asserted that other members have not been participating very
actively in Eurasec. Regional cooperation is important, and
any cooperation based on mutual respect is good, he said.

We Don't Have Plans to Counter NATO
--------------


6. (C) Poloff asked about recent Russian press reports
indicating that Uzbekistan intends to use this organization
to counterbalance NATO and the European Union. (Note: A June
11 article in Nezavisimaya Gazeta quoted Karimov as saying
that the union would be capable of becoming a counterweight
to NATO and the European Union. End note.) Aloev said that
Uzbekistan has no plans to counter NATO, and that each
organization is acting in accordance with its own interests.
He noted that organizations such as the SCO and NATO have
overlapping interests, but each has its own zone of
responsibility. Aloev said that Uzbekistan supports further
contact between organizations, and that each should support
the basic principle of non-interference in states' internal
affairs.

Comment:
--------------


7. (C) Aloev was surprisingly frank in his assessment of
Eurasec--he was also far more critical of this organization
than he was of the CSTO--and the Government of Uzbekistan's
proposal to merge the the organization with the CSTO may stem
from one or a combination of several motives. First, merging
the two would save Uzbekistan time and money by reducing the
number of meetings with other members of the CIS and the fees
that the country must pay. Indeed, GOU officials have
complained on several previous occasions about "duplication
of effort" among various organizations during recent
international conferences on Afghanistan and the Aral Sea.
Moreover, Tashkent may wish to integrate the two because it

views economic growth and security as interrelated. Second,
President Karimov may view the proposal as a win-win
scenario. If the other member states eventually sign up to
Karimov's proposal, the acceptance would be a recognition of
Uzbekistan's regional influence, and the prestige of being
considered a regional leader is something that Karimov
probably craves. If Karimov's proposal is rejected, he will
be able to counter any possible complaints from dissatisfied
member states by claiming that he proposed something that
would have addressed some of their concerns. Nevertheless,
even if Karimov's proposal to integrate the organizations
materializes, it is unclear whether this would address all of
Uzbekistan's concerns, such as the excessive number of
Eurasec agenda items and the possible conflicts between WTO
and Eurasec requirements. Third, there is the possibility
that the proposed merger is intended to counterbalance NATO,
as touted in the Russian press. While Uzbekistan's media has
not touched the issue, it is possible that the move reflects
a desire to balance Uzbekistan's relations with key countries
active in the region and to send a subtle signal to the West
that he has other options if he perceives that it is putting
pressure on Uzbekistan.
NORLAND