UZBEKISTAN: SCO OFFICIALS DISCUSS PLANS, POSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L TASHKENT 000714 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2018 TAGS: PREL ASEC ECIN ECON EINV PGOV PINS PTER AF UZ SUBJECT: UZBEKISTAN: SCO OFFICIALS DISCUSS PLANS, POSE QUESTIONS REF: A. TASHKENT 639 ¶B. TASHKENT 174 Classified By: Poloff Steven Prohaska for reasons 1.4 (b, d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a conversation with Poloff on June 17, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) Senior Experts Bakhram Auanassov and Kairbek Amenov discussed upcoming SCO plans and the role of observer states, but were reticent in discussing threat perceptions. Auanassov noted several possible economic and security issues that could come up in Dushanbe at the August SCO summit, and said that an SCO-sponsored conference dedicated to Afghanistan--also in Dushanbe--has been slated for July. He said the U.S. would be invited. The SCO has been planning to increase the role of SCO observer states in the organization, but has no plans to accept new members in the near future. The SCO appears interested in having a dialogue with the United States on issues including the situation in Afghanistan (the officials also asked for a U.S. response to four questions concerning international efforts there). The conference next month may indicate whether current SCO plans for Afghanistan are consistent with our own. End summary. ¶2. (C) In a conversation with Poloff on June 17, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) Senior Experts Bakhram Auanassov and Kairbek Amenov (both citizens of Kazakhstan) displayed interest in further international outreach and dialogue by discussing upcoming SCO plans, views, and the role of observer states. Auanassov introduced himself as a member of SCO's recently established International Contact and Cooperation Department and said that Amenov represented the Information and Analysis Department. Preview of the Upcoming SCO Summit -------------- ¶3. (C) Auanassov opined that agreements concerning transportation and finance will be signed during the upcoming SCO summit in Dushanbe this August. He also believed that three security-related agreements--concerning rules for counterterrorism exercises, cooperation in controlling firearms and explosives, and general counterterrorism assistance to security forces--would be raised at Dushanbe, if each of the SCO members reviews them on time. Plans for SCO Conference on Afghanistan -------------- ¶4. (C) Auanassov remarked that the SCO has been planning to hold an international conference on Afghanistan since last year, and the Council of National Coordinators has proposed holding this in July (also in Dushanbe). A date for the conference has not been determined, but he promised that he would inform the U.S. Embassy as soon as this and the agenda have been finalized. Auanassov said that the United States would be invited to participate in the SCO-sponsored conference, as would representatives from NATO, the European Union, various international organizations, and the SCO observers. Questions related to economic stability in Afghanistan would be central to the conference, he believed. The results of this conference may also be publicized in a later SCO communique. Auanassov also said that while the SCO has established a Contact Group on Afghanistan laying out rules for interaction between the SCO and Afghanistan, some of the previously signed documents are now out of date and will have to be revised. SCO Planning to Enhance Role of Observers -------------- ¶5. (C) The RATS has prepared a document laying out rules for cooperation between the RATS and SCO observer states, Auanassov continued. All of the SCO members with the exception of Russia have approved it, and he believed that Russia too would sign up to this. (Comment: There currently appears to be very little, if any, role for observer states in the RATS, and the Indian DCM in Uzbekistan also told Poloff separately that India--one of the SCO observer states--does not participate in the RATS. End note.) ¶6. (C) Auanassov said that the Council of National Coordinators has a schedule outlining planned activities--covering counternarcotics, security, and economic issues--with observers for 2008. Moreover, the Secretariat is preparing a document that will enhance the level of interaction between members and observers. He believed this document would go into effect in 2009, and even possibly by the end of this year. The SCO also is inviting observer states to participate to a greater extent in transportation, business, and investment projects in particular. The SCO is not planning to accept any new members in the near future, however. "It's not time yet. We don't have a mechanism for accepting new members," he asserted. Tight-Lipped on Terrorist Threat Perceptions -------------- ¶7. (C) On the question of which terrorist and extremist groups the SCO RATS is most concerned about, Auanassov deferred to Amenov. Amenov said that he does not have the right to share this information with anyone who is not a member of the SCO unless there is consensus among the SCO members to provide it. Auanassov--clearly much more willing to share information--then said that the SCO RATS, like many in the international community, considers Al-Qaida, the Taliban, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and the Islamic Movement of Turkestan to be threats. The SCO is now coordinating a list of terrorist groups, and is collaborating with the United Nations Counter Terrorism Center, which has its own list of over 500 terrorist groups. (Note: An official from Uzbekistan's State Customs Committee also told Poloff recently that Customs cooperates closely with the SCO RATS on information-sharing, but would not elaborate. End note.) Interested in Further Interaction -------------- ¶8. (C) Auanassov left a list of four questions concerning international efforts in Afghanistan with Poloff, and asked that the U.S. provide the SCO with written responses to them. (Note: The questions have been sent to the Desk. End note.) He also gave Poloff a speech he had planned to deliver--but did not--during the recent Afghanistan conference in Tashkent (septel). Comment: -------------- ¶9. (C) The SCO RATS does appear to be taking additional steps to gain publicity for the organization and may be intensifying its outreach to other states and international organizations--a United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime (UNODC) representative recently told Poloff, however, that UNODC's multiple proposals to the RATS to cooperate over the past year have been rebuffed. As senior SCO RATS officials told us in January, the organization does seem to want to at least hold a dialogue with the United States on issues of common concern, particularly the situation in Afghanistan. Auanassov's claim that the SCO is planning to host a conference dedicated to Afghanistan in July, however, contrasts with recent statements from Government of Uzbekistan officials that there will be no such conference in the near future. Attendance at such a conference could provide us with further insights on how the SCO plans to approach Afghanistan, and whether such plans are consistent with our own. ¶10. (C) The SCO RATS officials' statements that SCO is not planning to accept any additional members in the near future tracks with sentiments that GOU officials have expressed to us recently. Nevertheless, the SCO does appear to be considering how to give observer states a greater role in the organization, and may be weighing the pros and cons of future expansion. NORLAND