UZBEKISTAN: KARAKALPAKSTAN'S COUNCIL OF MINISTERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L TASHKENT 001222 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/CEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON SOCI SENV PHUM UZ SUBJECT: UZBEKISTAN: KARAKALPAKSTAN'S COUNCIL OF MINISTERS ON POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIAL CONDITIONS Classified By: Poloff Steven Prohaska for reasons 1.4 (b, d). ¶1. (C) Summary: On October 2, Deputy Chairman Abdijaliev of Karakalpakstan's Council of Ministers discussed conditions in Karakalpakstan--Uzbekistan's only autonomous republic--with us in Nukus. The Deputy Chairman repeatedly asserted Karakalpakstan's "sovereignty," citing a series of its own institutions. Abdijaliev was particularly excited about the prospects for economic development in Karakalpakstan in light of newly-discovered oil and gas reserves uncovered by the steadily receding Aral Sea, and noted joint efforts with other countries to exploit these resources. Karakalpakstan's government is trying to enhance the welfare of its people by attracting additional foreign investment. He noted dramatic improvements in salaries, health, and environmental conditions. We suspect that many of Abdijaliev's statistics should be taken with a grain of salt, but conditions in Karakalpakstan do appear to be more dynamic now than one year ago. Ambassador raised two human rights cases with Abdijaliev in a subsequent visit on October 16. End summary. How Karakalpakstan is Governed -------------- ¶2. (C) On October 2, Poloff, Deskoff, and Regional ESTH Officer met in Nukus with new Deputy Chairman of the Council of Ministers Karamatdin Idrisovich Abdijaliev, who discussed political, social, and economic conditions in Karakalpakstan, the only autonomous republic in Uzbekistan. Adbijaliev noted repeatedly that Karakalpakstan is a "sovereign state" in Uzbekistan, with its own Constitution, coat of arms, Ministries, and anthem. Both Uzbekistan's and Karakalpakstan's Constitutions apply in the autonomous republic. (Abdijaliev faltered when asked to explain the differences between these Constitutions, however, noting that these were minor.) Branches of Uzbekistan's four political parties operate in Karakalpakstan. Karakalpakstan's diverse population is steadily increasing and now stands at 1.6 million, Abdijaliev continued (with 300,000 in Nukus),and includes Karakalpaks, Uzbeks, Turkmen, Russians, Koreans, Kazakhs, and others, but there are no interethnic problems. Covering (amazingly) more than 37 percent of Uzbekistan's overall territory, Karakalpakstan has two major cities--Nukus and Takhiatash--and is divided into 14 districts. ¶3. (C) In contrast to the other provinces of Uzbekistan, Karakalpakstan has an executive branch called the Council of Ministers, which includes a Chairman, three Deputy Chairmen, and various Ministries. The Chairman of this council also is a member of Uzbekistan's Cabinet, and is elected by the members of Karakalpakstan's own Parliament, with the approval of President Karimov. Karakalpakstan's Parliament--which has 86 members drawn from regional branches of Uzbekistan's four official political parties--also elects the Council Chairman's deputies. ¶4. (C) Each of these cities and districts has its own hokim (mayor),and the hokims of the districts are appointed by the Chairman of Parliament with Karimov's approval. The Chairman of Parliament then appoints the three deputies of each hokim in each district, and these appointments require the consent of the Council of Ministers. While all of the members of the Council of Ministers are residents of Karakalpakstan, Karakalpakstan's Parliament does include some deputies ("businessmen," Abdijaliev called them) from Tashkent. Loss of the Aral Sea an Economic Gain? -------------- ¶5. (C) Abdijaliev excitedly described newly-discovered energy reserves beneath land once covered by the Aral Sea, and said that a consortium of companies from Russia (Gazprom and Lukoil),China, Malaysia (Petronas),and South Korea is already working in Karakalpakstan to extract energy. Abdijaliev anticipated an "economic boom" from these reserves, and noted that it was important for the republic to prepare a new generation of specialists. Toward this end, Karakalpakstan recently opened a new educational institution focused on oil and gas and a branch of the Tashkent Chemical Engineering Institute in Nukus. Fulfilling the Five-Year Plan in Three Years! -------------- ¶6. (C) Abdijaliev claimed that Karakalpakstan's top priority is enhancing the well-being of its people and seeing to their needs. Karakalpakstan has developed targeted programs to increase production, programs to enhance water management and irrigation, and has plans to renovate all secondary schools by the end of 2009. The republic is also hoping to increase the contributions of small and medium businesses to Karakalpakstan's GDP. ¶7. (C) Karakalpakstan currently has 46 joint ventures with other countries, and is trying to attract additional foreign investment to increase the number of jobs. In addition to the countries mentioned above, Germany and Kazakhstan are investing in Karakalpakstan, and most foreign investment has gone into oil, gas, textiles, food processing, and construction. ¶8. (C) The economic situation is stable in Karakalpakstan, Abdijaliev asserted. Average monthly salaries increased to 250,000 soum (about 185 USD) this year, which is enough for people to cover basic needs given the relatively inexpensive prices in Karakalpakstan, he said. Karakalpakstan is hoping to increase this figure to 500 USD/month by 2011. (Comment: Even with possible economic gains from newly-discovered energy reserves, we think that more than doubling average incomes in Karakalpakstan in less than three years is a dubious claim. End comment.) While Nukus has received subsidies from Tashkent for social and economic projects, these subsidies ("dotatsia") stopped in 2007, as Nukus is now covering its own expenses. Ambitious Construction Projects -------------- ¶9. (C) Karakalpakstan is pouring tens of billions of soum into development projects. These include renovations of the airport in Nukus, the construction of a brand-new hotel, and numerous new bakeries. Abdijaliev said that the square in front of Government of Karakalpakstan buildings is being redone--a 1932 Leningrad Central Plan is being cast aside in favor of a 2003 construction plan intended to make it look like its counterpart in Tashkent. (Note: We saw the construction firsthand from an office window--the area has been sealed off with a metal fence. End note.) Karakalpakstan recently opened a factory that produces industrial products, and also has agreed with a South Korean company to build a large new chemical plant starting in 2011. Education in Karakalpakstan -------------- ¶10. (C) Karakalpak, Uzbek, and Russian are mandatory languages in Karakalpakstan's schools, Abdijaliev said. Both Karakalpak and Uzbek are the official languages of Karakalpakstan, but officials continue to use Russian in communications with foreigners. There has been a trend toward English, however, and Karakalpakstan has a "Progress" school which provides instruction in English, French, and German. Abdijaliev remarked proudly that his own children can speak English. Health, Environmental, and Agricultural Issues -------------- - ¶11. (C) Abdijaliev admitted that Karakalpakstan has a problem with tuberculosis, but noted that the number of cases and deaths from tuberculosis is declining. He claimed that the average lifespan in Karakalpakstan is now 74, trailing the average 77-year lifespan in the rest of Uzbekistan. (Comment: We do not believe these figures, which are close to average lifespans in the United States, are accurate. End comment.) Health services including meals are free, and hospitals serve the population in urban areas while health centers exist in rural parts of Karakalpakstan. Karakalpakstan has nine medical colleges total, three of which are located in Nukus. Most members of the population have ready access to safe drinking water and gas, and all have electricity, he continued. ¶12. (C) Agriculture in Karakalpakstan focuses on wheat, cotton, rice, fruit and vegetable production on about 100,000 hectares of land. Karakalpakstan harvests approximately 200,000 tons of cotton per year. Abdijaliev complained that recent drought had forced Karakalpakstan to decrease its irrigation of rice (a water-intensive crop),however. There is a cycle every six to eight years, he continued. Abdijaliev noted that Karakalpakstan experienced a drought in 2002 which was followed by a high-water year, and believed the same would happen after the current drought. Nevertheless, Karakalpakstan is experimenting both with crops that require less water and with water-saving technologies on land for fruits and vegetables. Comment: -------------- ¶13. (C) Abdijaliev's assertions about Karakalpakstan's autonomy are interesting, but it is clear that Tashkent plans to retain a solid grip on the republic, as key appointments in the provincial government are still subject to Karimov's approval and serve at his pleasure. In addition to agriculture-related revenue, the discovery of additional oil and gas deposits in Karakalpakstan is another reason for Tashkent to maintain control there. Uzbekistan may in fact have an incentive to avoid saving its share of the Aral Sea, as the sea's continued shrinking will probably facilitate efforts to extract oil and gas. ¶14. (C) We are skeptical of many of Karakalpakstan's optimistic forecasts and claims of dramatic advancements in recent years--some of the statistics Abdijaliev rattled off smack of Soviet-era propaganda. Nevertheless, the atmosphere in this autonomous republic does appear to have changed since Poloff's first visit there in November 2007. A new, relatively energetic Deputy Chairman has replaced Khaytmurat Abdurakhmanov--indeed, his office phone rang constantly over the course of the meeting. Far more construction activity in Nukus is apparent now relative to last year. And while the Council insisted on sending a minder to follow Poloff everywhere he went during his last visit, nothing of the sort took place during this visit. ¶15. (C) The visit of Poloff, Deskoff, and Regional ESTH Officer was followed up on October 16 by the Ambassador along with a prominent private Amcit. Abdijaliev did not show any particular Karakalpak "ownership" when it came to human rights issues. The Ambassador raised the cases of convicted journalist Salidjahon Abdurakhmanov and human rights activist Akzam Turgunov, but AbdijalQv pleasantly refrained from any comment. Nukus looked bustling compared to the vast expanses of desert that make up the bulk of Karakalpakstan. The Savitskiy Museum in Nukus, with its unique collection of Russian avant-garde art, offers significant prospects for U.S.-Uzbek cultural exchange, as do the many ancient ruins of Bactrian-era forts that litter the landscape waiting to be excavated. Signs of Karakalpak "separatism" are few and far between, though the mayor of one small town made a point, on his business card where it said "Republic of Uzbekistan," of crossing out "Uzbekistan" and replacing it with "Karakalpakstan." NORLAND