ESTONIA: DAS GARBER VISITS ESTONIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TALLINN 000066

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/NB - ROBERT GILCHRIST, KATHERINE GARRY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2018
TAGS: PREL PARM EN
SUBJECT: ESTONIA: DAS GARBER VISITS ESTONIA

Classified by: DCM Karen Decker for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)

REF: TALLINN 693


1. (C) Summary. Estonian government and political leaders
told visiting EUR DAS Garber that GOE priorities for the
NATO summit in Bucharest are NATO membership for the
Adriatic 3 and "positive messages of progress" for Ukraine
and Georgia. Estonian interlocutors expressed continued
support for NATO operations in Afghanistan, but predicted
political concerns and staffing shortages "may" preclude
Estonian military participation in Iraq past 2008. On
Kosovo, GOE counterparts emphasized Estonia will not be
"first or last" on recognition, and provided a frank
assessment of their attitudes towards the rhetoric
emanating from Russia. DAS Garber offered the GOE positive
assurances on CFE and Missile Defense (MD) and gave a media
interview in which she outlined the status of the Visa
Waiver Program (VWP) and assured Estonia that they were on
track to join. Energy experts briefed DAS Garber on
Estonian efforts to expand alternative energy resources to
reduce dependence on oil shale. They also shared concerns
that unregulated electricity production in Russia could
provide the Russians with a competitive advantage. End
Summary.

LOOKING AHEAD TO BUCHAREST


2. (SBU) During her visit to Tallinn, February 5-6, EUR DAS
Judith Garber discussed the agenda for the upcoming April
NATO Summit in Bucharest with interlocutors from the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA),Ministry of Defense
(MOD),the President's office and parliament. Christian
Liflander, MOD Director of Policy Planning and Acting
Deputy Undersecretary of Defense, stressed the importance
of giving clear and positive signals to Ukraine and Georgia
at Bucharest in order to encourage further reforms.
However, he acknowledged that offers of MAP are unlikely.
In separate meetings, Sven Jurgensen, Foreign Policy
Advisor to President Ilves, Aivo Orav, MFA Political
Director, and several members of the Estonian Parliament
all commented that the events of November 2008 in Georgia
had done considerable damage to Georgia's MAP aspirations.
Each expressed concern that silence or negative comments on
the issue at Bucharest could cause a further regression in
reforms and provide Russia an opportunity to destabilize
Georgia and Ukraine.


3. (SBU) GOE interlocutors stressed their interest in
encouraging Greece and Macedonia to settle the name issue,
but said it is unfair to deny Macedonia membership in NATO
for this reason if all other stipulations have been met.
In their meeting with DAS Garber, four Members of
Parliament stressed the destabilizing effects the failure
to offer NATO membership to Macedonia would have on the
already precarious situation in the Balkans.

KOSOVO


4. (C) Estonian officials expressed relief at the outcome
of the recent Presidential elections in Serbia. One
leading opposition MP commented that Tadic's election has
improved the situation in the region and slowed the urgency
with which events are unfolding. On the question of timing
of Estonian recognition of Kosovo, MFA's Orav reiterated
the Estonian preference not to be among the first or the
last. However, Orav told DAS Garber, the GOE is prepared
to act - the MFA has already drafted a statement of
recognition. Estonia is trying to coordinate with Nordic
and Baltic countries to declare on the same day.

IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN


5. (C) DAS Garber thanked and praised Estonia for its
support and contributions to the War on Terror,
specifically highlighting the continued dedication of the
Estonian military forces despite their having suffered
casualties. DAS Garber also lauded Estonian assistance
efforts in Afghanistan while at the same time stressing
that Afghanistan is the greatest challenge currently facing
the Alliance. (NOTE: DAS Garber also made a point of
clarifying that Secretary Gates was not referring to
Estonia in his recent letter calling on Alliance members to
step up their contributions. END NOTE). MOD's Christian
Liflander agreed that success in Afghanistan is going to
require a sustained effort, but questioned whether the
Alliance can realistically deliver on all of the goals
outlined in the NATO paper by 2010.


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6. (SBU) Sven Jurgensen, reflecting upon a recent SHAPE
meeting, commented that the biggest issue facing the
Alliance in Afghanistan is caveats. Citing the fact that
90 percent of the problems in Afghanistan take place in 10
percent of the territory, Jurgensen said NATO needs the
ability to move troops from region to region and address
different problem sectors as appropriate. Jurgensen also
pointed out that the Alliance effort is hampered by the
lack of cross communication between the EU and NATO on
Afghanistan.


7. (C) While DAS Garber's interlocutors were positive on
continued participation in Afghanistan in 2009, few
expressed optimism regarding extension of Estonia's
military mandate in Iraq beyond 2008. Aivo Orav and
Christian Liflander both commented that the political mood
within the Estonian Parliament towards Iraq is much more
contentious and fragmented than it was in 2007. This makes
it very difficult to predict whether another mandate
extension beyond 2008 will be possible. Orav said
continued participation in Iraq would be dependent largely
on the actions of the U.S., while emphasizing "Estonia will
not stay in Iraq alone." Liflander also noted that the MOD
is facing "tremendous" recruitment and rotation problems.
Liflander predicted that the GOE may be forced to
"cannibalize" their contributions to the Nordic Battle
Group or reduce their presence in the Balkans in order to
meet troop requirements for Afghanistan in the second half
of this year.

MD AND CFE


8. (SBU) MFA's Aivo Orav summarized the GOE position on
CFE succinctly, noting that Estonia does not want to
negotiate on this issue before NATO Allies are in agreement
on a fixed position concerning Russia. DAS Garber assured
Orav that the U.S. position on CFE remains firm and that we
have no intention of betraying Estonian interests. She
also reiterated the importance the U.S. places on holding
Russia to their Istanbul commitments, but cited a lack of
optimism that Russia will comply any time soon.


9. (SBU) GOE officials were considerably more optimistic on
the topic of Missile Defense (MD). There was a general
consensus that public opinion towards MD has improved in
the Czech Republic and that Poland has not been dissuaded
by the "threatening rhetoric" emanating from Russia. At
the same time, GOE counterparts expressed concerns about
the interoperability of the U.S. system with the one that
is being developed in Europe. DAS Garber gave assurances
that the systems will be compatible and that the goal is
protection for all European allies.

RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA

10.(SBU) Several Parliamentarians observed that most
Russian rhetoric amounts to little more than "bully"
tactics and is tailored for the home audience. Christian
LiflQlander pointed to the drawdown of the 76th Airborne
Division at the border with Estonia as evidence of the
Russian military's dire straights and lack of capability.
However, both Liflander and MP Mati Raidma (Chair of the
Defense Committee) pointed out that the events surrounding
the relocation of the Bronze Soldier statue proved that
Russia can still disrupt Estonia when it sets its mind to
it. MP Tarmo Kouts (the former Chief of Defense Forces)
also voiced his fear that concerns over energy security in
Europe may influence some countries to close their eyes
towards Russian misbehavior in exchange for access to
Russian energy resources. DAS Garber responded that energy
security is a high priority for the United States and the
USG is committed to working closely with the EU to try and
establish alternate sources of energy in Europe.

THE FUTURE OF ENERGY IN ESTONIA


11. (SBU) DAS Garber discussed energy security at length
with Einari Kisel, Energy Director of the Ministry of
Economic Affairs and Communication (MOE),and Jaanus
Arukaevu, Strategy Manager for Eesti Energia, Estonia's
state-owned leading power utility. Estonia is pursuing a
number of options to move "step by step" away from its
dependence on domestic oil shale, the country's primary
source of energy. (Note: Oil shale provides 93 percent of
Estonia's current electricity needs, and 54 percent of
total energy consumption. End Note). One option is
participation in the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (INPP) in
Lithuania. Kisel, who had just returned from Ministerial-
level discussions in Vilnius on the INPP, noted that a

TALLINN 00000066 003 OF 003


large stumbling block - political questions about ownership
shares in the plant - is now largely settled. The
remaining issues, he said, are largely technical and
financial.


12. (C) Both Kisel and Arukaevu expressed their
dissatisfaction with the EU's use of 2005 vice 1990 as the
base year against which to measure CO2 reductions.
Arukaevu speculated whether other methods of calculating
CO2 limits - such as emissions per unit of GDP rather than
per capita - might be a fairer way of assessing caps within
the EU. If this were the case, he noted, Estonia could be
in 3rd place in the EU by 2015. Both men acknowledged the
serious challenges ahead for Estonia to meet emissions
targets. "But when it's a question of survival, people get
clever," Kisel said. Both men concurred with DAS Garber
that the best way to spur industry to make the necessary
upgrades is to allow free market mechanisms to provide
stimulus. Kisel noted that Latvia and Lithuania have not
always "played by the rules" in terms of the subsidies they
have provided to state utilities under the guise of
economic development. Nevertheless, the GOE is committed
to its path of upgrading current power plants and pursuing
greater use of biofuels and renewables (currently less than
2 percent of total energy consumption).


13. (C) According to Kisel, Estonia's biggest concern in
the short- to mid- term will be competition from
unregulated electricity generated in Russia. If Russia is
allowed to operate coal-fired plants that are not subject
to EU CO2 caps, they could enjoy a competitive advantage of
EUR 25 per megawatt (MW). Russia's strategy, noted Kisel,
is to use more coal for electric power generation (and sell
what its domestic market does not need to the Baltic market
at dumping prices) in order to maximize available gas for
export to Western Europe. The GOE supports the EU imposing
an import tariff on electricity imports from all 3rd
countries that are not subject to the same environmental
regulations as the EU. As a net exporter of electricity,
the GOE does not always find a sympathetic ear in
neighboring Latvia - a net electricity importer - which is
content with Russian prices remaining low.

PRESS EVENT


13. (U) DAS Garber gave an extensive interview to Eesti
Paevaleht, one of Estonia's leading Estonian language
newspapers. Reflecting local interest, the interview
focused on Estonian entry into the Visa Waiver Program and
the future of American policy in Iraq and Afghanistan.


14. (U) DAS Garber cleared this cable.

Phillips