SCENESETTER FOR ESTONIAN PRESIDENT ILVES' APRIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L TALLINN 000135 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR S STAFF, EUR, EUR/NB FOR GILCHRIST/GARRY NSC FOR OVP (HAAVE),DOE FOR NIGRO, DHS FOR BROWN E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ENRG NATO ECON CVIS EN SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR ESTONIAN PRESIDENT ILVES' APRIL 17-22 VISIT Classified By: CDA Karen Decker for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d). REF: USNATO 119 ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: President Toomas Hendrik Ilves, Estonia's own "Jersey Boy," visits Washington and Tampa April 17-22. President Ilves is fervently pro-American, and he supports strongly Estonia's military engagements abroad. In fact, keeping Estonia in Iraq will be high on Ilves' agenda during his meetings in Washington and at CENTCOM. To that end, he will be interested in hearing about our long-term Iraq strategy, and he will welcome assurances that Estonian contributions are valued and important. Post-Bucharest Summit, President Ilves, who has tried to be a mentor to Georgian President Saakashvili, will be interested in our take on enlargement, as well as on arms control issues like CFE. He will thank the U.S. for its strong support for the Cyber-Security Center. If there is time, Ilves wants to support additional U.S.-Estonian efforts to prevent a Russian energy monopoly in Europe. ¶2. (C) In Washington President Ilves will meet with the Vice President, the Secretary and Acting Undersecretary Dan Fried. He will be the Guest of Honor at the United States Baltic Foundation (USBF) VIP GALA and Dinner on April 18. President Ilves will also travel to Tampa, FL, where he will visit CENTCOM. ¶3. (C) In USG meetings with President Ilves, it would be useful to: -- Recognize Estonian sacrifices in Iraq and Afghanistan and thank Ilves for Estonia's unwavering support; -- Compliment the professionalism and capabilities of Estonia's combat forces; -- Request Estonia continue to participate in the Iraq mission past 2008 in the absence of a UNSCR; -- Reassure Estonia that the USG strongly supports MAP for Georgia and Ukraine by the end of this year, and welcome the idea of joint U.S.-Estonian efforts to promote progress in these two key countries; -- Reassure Estonia that they will be included in negotiations related to the Adapted CFE Treaty; -- Urge Estonia to continue to take a proactive role in EU discussions on energy security; END SUMMARY. ILVES A FAMILIAR FACE IN WASHINGTON: ¶4. (U) This will be President Ilves' second trip to Washington since his election in October 2006. In his last visit (June 2007),he met the President, the Secretary of Defense and Members of Congress Nancy Pelosi and John Boehner. During this visit, President Ilves will meet with Acting Undersecretary Fried, the Vice President and the Secretary. Ilves will be the guest of honor at a USBF Gala SIPDIS reception and dinner on April 18. Following his stop in DC, Ilves will travel to Tampa, Florida to speak at the University of South Florida, meet with Tampa Mayor Iorio and attend meetings at the Tampa Council on Foreign Relations and CENTCOM. ¶5. (SBU) President Ilves has deep roots in the United States. Born in Sweden to Estonian emigre parents, Ilves grew up in the United States. He attending high school in New Jersey and received degrees in psychology from Columbia (1976) and the University of Pennsylvania (1978). While President Ilves has no constitutional authority over Estonian foreign policy, as a former Foreign Minister, he is more engaged with foreign policy issues than the average Head of State. Ilves takes a particularly active stance on European policy and security issues. He is widely recognized -- at home and abroad -- as one of Europe's leading experts on foreign affairs. He is affable and articulate, and addicted to bow ties. IRAQ/AFGHANISTAN ¶6. (C) The GOE currently has ten percent of its land forces committed to international operations -- the second-highest deployment rate in NATO. Estonian forces participate without caveats in difficult combat missions in both Iraq and Afghanistan as well as missions in Bosnia, Kosovo, Lebanon, and the EU Nordic Battle Group. In Afghanistan, Estonian forces are embedded with the UK in Helmand province, where they have security responsibility for the dangerous Now Zad district. The GOE announced in the run up to Bucharest that they would deploy a mortar section to Afghanistan this spring as an additional commitment to ISAF. In Iraq, the 34-member Infantry Platoon, designated ESTPLA -16, is assigned to the 2nd Squadron, 14th Calvary Regiment and is conducting counterinsurgency operations in the Sab al Bor area, north of Baghdad. The GOE also has two staff officers assigned to the NATO Training Mission - Iraq. Estonia has suffered multiple casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan, including four killed and approximately 45 wounded. So far, these incidents have not resulted in public pressure to end these missions. However, maintaining such a high operations tempo is increasingly difficult, is putting a significant strain on military resources, and potentially hindering necessary long-term structural reforms. Regardless of these difficulties, the Estonian Defense Forces continue to place a high value on serving side by side with US forces and will look to maintain this relationship in Iraq and/or elsewhere. ¶7. (C) The GOE and Estonian Parliament have consistently linked Estonia's ongoing participation in Iraq to renewal of UNSC authorization. President Ilves may be concerned that the lack of a UNSCR for 2009 will complicate the GOE's ability to renew Estonia's military mandate in Iraq at the end of this year. In addition, U.S. Presidential elections and our efforts to negotiate a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) and a Strategic Framework Agreement with Iraq, lend further uncertainty to the discussion. If Estonia is to stay in Iraq, the GOE will need to identify a legal basis for doing so. As such, President Ilves will be interested in hearing our longer term plans for Iraq and how other nations may be able to "opt in" to our negotiated SOFA, as well as our thanks for Estonia's role and reassurances that the United States wants Estonia to remain committed in Iraq. FOCUS ON GEORGIA AND UKRAINE ¶8. (C) Georgia and Ukraine are two of Estonia's top priorities for development assistance, and in Georgia, in particular, the GOE has fostered vigorously democratic, security and economic reforms. President Ilves is particularly engaged on Georgia, he visited twice in the last year and maintains regular close contact with President Saakashvili. As for Ukraine, Tallinn will host a NATO-Ukraine ministerial meeting this November in the run- up to what Estonia hopes will be a MAP invitation at the December meeting of NATO foreign ministers. Although initially GOE officials expressed disappointment that Georgia and Ukraine were not offered MAP in Bucharest, Ilves' senior staff and MFA officials all agree that the language in the final communique is even better than expected. President Ilves will likely seek reassurance that the United States will continue to support reforms in both countries and work to overcome obstacles to MAP before the December meeting. It would be useful to discuss with President Ilves how Estonia and the U.S. can work together to promote deeper reforms in both countries. ENERGY SECURITY ¶9. (C) President Ilves has consistently cited energy security as one of the most important challenges facing Estonia. He is a vocal advocate of the need for a common European energy policy and a coordinated strategy for preventing a Russian energy monopoly. Estonia is well- placed to meet short-term energy needs, but will need to make tough decisions to maintain long-term supply and to stay in line with the EU emphasis on climate change. Oil- shale-fired power plants supply 93 percent of Estonia's electricity needs (and 54 percent of total energy requirements). However, Estonia will have to invest in significant upgrades to the plants in order to meet EU environmental standards by 2012. As a result, the GOE is considering other options including participating in the proposed Ignalina power plant in Lithuania, increasing connectivity with Finland and expanded use of wind and bio- fuels. While Estonia's demand for natural gas is lower than other countries in the region, it is still dependent on Russia for 100 percent of its gas supply. CYBER SECURITY ¶10. (C) The GOE promoted actively inclusion of cyber security at the Bucharest Summit, and was pleased by the reference to it in the final communique. Estonia's Center for Cooperative Cyber Defense (CCD) has attracted significant interest from Allies and is a major source of pride for the GOE. The GOE hopes to accredit the CCD as a NATO Center of Excellence this year. Last November the U.S. was the first to send a representative to the CCD (the Navy seconded a cyber security expert from the Naval Criminal Investigative Service (NCIS) to the CCD for one year). Germany, Italy, Latvia, Slovakia and Lithuania have all committed personnel in the future. CFE ¶11. (C) The GOE remains concerned about Russia and the CFE treaty. All three Baltics remain uneasy about publicly declaring their readiness to negotiate A/CFE accession with Russia until Istanbul Commitments are met. President Ilves may seek assurances the United States will not betray Estonian interests in order to make progress with Russia on CFE. OTHER ISSUES ¶12. (C) President Ilves' staff has told us he plans to raise the need for improved EU-NATO coordination in Brussels. GOE officials have highlighted their interest in this issue with us frequently and Estonian officials in Brussels have pressed for inclusion of Afghanistan on the GAERC Agenda. While of course it is useful to acknowledge there is room for improvement in the relationship and to welcome any new ideas, we have urged the Estonians to use their meetings to discuss areas where the U.S. and Estonia share tangible goals and can work together toward success. ¶13. (C) Given the weight of domestic Estonian interest in the Visa Waiver Program (VWP),President Ilves may raise Estonia's accession to the Visa Waiver Program. It is well understood here, however, that talks have moved from the political to the technical realm, and both sides are focused on implementing arrangements. Despite fierce EU opposition (from Brussels),DHS Secretary Chertoff visited Tallinn in March to sign the VWP MOU with the Estonian Minister of Interior. At that time, Secretary Chertoff said publicly that he hoped Estonian VWP accession would happen by November 2008. President Ilves will thank the USG for its collaboration with Estonia, and will reiterate the political importance of VWP accession for Estonia. In turn, it would be useful to thank Ilves for Estonia's refusal to bow to EU pressure in the run-up to the Chertoff visit. ¶14. (U) We appreciate all the support in Washington to arrange this visit. DECKER